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Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:50 am Post subject: WORLD HURDLE PREVIEW - PART 3.... the final countdown
I am going to post up the trends/stats/facts for this race and the entries
I will do a second post adding to the info and then put my thoughts on the leading contenders/ live outsiders for this race with a reccomended betting plan (best ingored )
OK... FACTS
The World Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt horse race for four-year-old and above horses run over a distance of 3 miles (4,828 metres). There are twelve hurdles to be jumped in the race.
It was first run under its current conditions in 1972 as the Stayers' Hurdle, changing to the present name in 2005. It is the most prestigious long distance hurdle race in the United Kingdom.
winners since 1990are as follows
Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2009 Big Buck's 6 P F Nicholls 6/1
2008 Inglis Drever 9 J Howard Johnson 11/8F
2007 Inglis Drever 8 J Howard Johnson 5/1
2006 My Way De Solzen 6 A King 8/1
2005 Inglis Drever 6 J Howard Johnson 5/1
2004 Iris’s Gift 7 Jonjo O’Neill 9/2
2003 Baracouda 8 F Doumen 9/4JF
2002 Baracouda 7 F Doumen 13/8F
2000 Bacchanal 6 N Henderson 11/2
1999 Anzum 8 D Nicholson 40/1
1998 Princeful 7 J Pitman 16/1
1997 Karshi 7 Miss H Knight 20/1
1996 Cyborgo 6 M Pipe 8/1
1995 Dorans Pride 6 M Hourigan 11/4F
1994 Balasani 8 M Pipe 9/2JF
1993 Shuil Ar Aghaidh 7 P Kiely 20/1
1992 Nomadic Way 7 B Hills 15/2
1991 King’s Curate 7 S Mellor 5/2JF
1990 Trapper John 6 M Morris 15/2
so in the last 19 runnings we have had 7x6 year olds, 7x7 yearolds; 4 eight year olds and one 9 year old winners
The last 2 eight year old winners were previous winners, no horse has won this for the first time as an 8 year old since Anzum in 1999. Anzum was also the last winner at double figure odds (in his case 40/1) so this is a race where the book usually has it right -almost.... ignore favorites might be good advice because only Inglis Drever and Baracouda (twice) have won as favourites since Dorans Pride in 1995 so 3 in 13 runnings.
The best trend race for this in recent years has been the cleeve hurdle (which was increased to 3 miles in 2005 from 2m5 so ignore earlier runnings). In 2008 and 2009 Inglis Drever and Big Bucks won this race then the stayers (and Inglis had been second in the cleeve before winning the stayers in 07). This year's race was, of course, won by Tidal Bay, whose trainer certainly knows how to win this race!
Current leading entries and odds are as follows the number in square brackets is the age of the horse
Big Bucks 4/6 [7]
Karabak 6/1 [7]
Tidal Bay 9/1 [9]
Sentry duty 14/1 [8]
Time for rupert 20/1 [6]
Mourad 33/1 [5]
Cousin Vinny [7], KAtchit [7], War of Attrition[11], Powerstation [10] all33/1
Lie forrit 40/1
Others are available!
Big Buck's ticks all the boxes for this but at 4/6 is not a betting prospect for many of us; Tidal Bay would be an age-defying winner and despite winning the major trial 9/1 is a fair price with great each way value.
At the moment my only bet is Tidal Bay in e/w multiples, but more thoughts on that to follow. _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
Last edited by geordie_racer on Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:03 pm; edited 2 times in total
The nature of ratings is shown up somewhat in the staying division as opposed to the 2 milers. The relative strength of depth of these respective divisions gives rise to ratings anomalies.
There may be 10 good 2 mile hurdlers out there and as such the ratings calculated are likely to be fairly accurate and reflective of the talents of the respective horses against which the whole ratings process has been carried out.
The staying division is a different kettle of fish..........there is an absolute dearth of talent out there and the result is exaggerated ratings. We are led to believe that the Paul Nicholls flop Big Bucks is the best beast over hurdles.....Timeform rate the horse 174+, and even Punchestowns retains 171 over hurdles.
So on that basis Big Bucks is one of the bankers of the week.
The difference though, as with most years, is that you will invariably find more unexposed horses in the staying division than that of the 2 mile event. You will therefore more often than not get a very good performance from an unexpected source in the 3m race as opposed to the 2m version........Big Bucks himself shot into the picture from seemily out of the blue last winter.
So what do we have on the plate this year?
Karabak......the obvious danger. We saw what he could do last year, and we've seen evidence of that again this year. A worthy 2nd fav.
But after Karabak what is there? Tidal Bay, War of Attrition, Time for Rupert, Katchit.
All steady horses, obvious candidates for place money on the basis of what we've seen over the winter. But nothing for Nicholls to worry about regards challengers for Big Bucks.
If the horse (BB) is to be beaten, I feel, it will be by one of those apparently exposed but realistically totally unexposed types. The two I have in mind, and have been backing for some time are:
Cousin Vinny. Even when Mullins was saying RSA, RSA, RSA I felt that it would be worth the chance in backing the horse at bigger prices forthis race. Mullins has a big yard, and has the luxury of varying his running arrangements. A horse with a touch of class, that should on breeding see the trip out.
Cape Tribulation. Trading at hefty prices, which I was hoovering up back in November. But why back a horse that didn't stay the Albert Bartlett, then flopped at Aintree, and has been beaten and beaten since? Because the horse has been campaigned appallingly to date....but has now had a break and should go well.
CT ran in last years Albert Bartlett after hacking up over 3miles at Doncaster (decent time performance too). Running at Cheltenham over three miles is a totally different task....as the horse was only 5yo. Stamina pushed beyond the limit, hence the poor show at Aintree a few weeks later. Jefferson has since elected to throw CT into the mix with the best 2 to 2 1/2milers out there, and he's performed pretty well. Now that the horse is 6yo, 3 miles at Cheltenham should fit into his more mature and stronger stamina profile. I expect a good run from the horse. I'm not expecting him to win, but at 66's I expect him to figure in the places.
Ask yourself this. Where would you expect Big Bucks to finish in races agaisnt the quality of Zaynar, Go Native, Starluck, Medermit, Punjabi over a trip short of which should now be your best?
Timeform would have us believe that BB would almost beat that lot
Cape Tribulation. Trading at hefty prices, which I was hoovering up back in November. But why back a horse that didn't stay the Albert Bartlett, then flopped at Aintree, and has been beaten and beaten since? Because the horse has been campaigned appallingly to date....but has now had a break and should go well.
CT ran in last years Albert Bartlett after hacking up over 3miles at Doncaster (decent time performance too). Running at Cheltenham over three miles is a totally different task....as the horse was only 5yo. Stamina pushed beyond the limit, hence the poor show at Aintree a few weeks later. Jefferson has since elected to throw CT into the mix with the best 2 to 2 1/2milers out there, and he's performed pretty well. Now that the horse is 6yo, 3 miles at Cheltenham should fit into his more mature and stronger stamina profile. I expect a good run from the horse. I'm not expecting him to win, but at 66's I expect him to figure in the places.
Ask yourself this. Where would you expect Big Bucks to finish in races agaisnt the quality of Zaynar, Go Native, Starluck, Medermit, Punjabi over a trip short of which should now be your best?
Timeform would have us believe that BB would almost beat that lot[/quote]
I also backed CT over the winter at huge prices for this thinking he would at least get one run over 3mile before the WH but he has been run over trips shorter than ideal. Why i have to ask myself? Does he really get 3m or is the trainer trying to pull the wool a little? I hope the latter.
I cannot see him winning though and would expect the fav to be the easiest winner of a Gd 1 all week barring a fall/mishap of any sort.
Well after looking at the stats and the trends, let’s have a little look at the horses. I am, as many of you know, a fan of the Johnson / Wylie team, but I am trying to be realistic here.
Top 6 in the betting currently are;-
BIG BUCK’S
Not a lot that you don’t know about this horse already. Reigning Champ, he has won his last 6 races over hurdles (unbeaten Jan 09 to date) after reverting from chasing. He had won 3 chases after being bought from France but after unseating in the Hennessy in 2008 was put over the sticks and turned from a decent competitive chaser with a top rating of 153 into a top hurdler currently rated 174. Beat the unbeatable Kasbah Bliss by a total of over 20 lengths in this last season he is the one to beat. Last seen beating Karabak and Diamond Harry in the Long Walk you have to feel that he will need to run better than that to retain his crown, but Nicholls will have him primed and timed to perfection. At a best priced 8/13 he is not my idea of a betting proposition but the big players like Sir Bond will pile in to what will be one of their bankers of the meeting.
KARABAK (7)
The general second favourite available at a best priced 7/1. However this is a horse that has great trouble getting his head in front. He has finished 2nd 3 times out of last 4 runs (and 4th once) to Big Buck’s in the Long Walk, Zaynar in the Ascot hurdle and Mikael D’Haguenet in the Ballymore last year. He was 4th in the Sefton at Aintree last April in what was a disappointing effort and which may well be a reflection on how much his Cheltenham efforts took out of him. You can say that his run at Ascot was his best performance to date, but that was only his second run over 3 miles (the Sefton was the other) and 3 miles at Aintree and Ascot are a bit easier than 3 miles at the Festival. Will he really stay? Will he get up the hill? I can’t back him with any confidence at all sadly, as I think he will be out on his feet in the last furlong.
TIDAL BAY (9)
Try to be impartial here, Geordie. Try hard. Just as I was sure that there was massive over confidence in Kasbah Bliss for this race last year, I fear that there is an unwillingness to respect the challenge of this fella. Yes he’s on the old side for a Stayer’s winner but at 7/1 he must be an e/w bet to nothing (in his 19 runs he has only finished out of the first 3 on 3 occasions, and all 3 times were in Grade 1 chases (Peterborough 4th of 7, Melling Chase 5th of 10, Ryanair 4th of 10 when he was running on after being caught out for pace mid-race). The worry for me is that he may hit a flat spot at the wring time because these guys will not be hanging about at any stage and the favourite will be running on at the end so you need to be up there with 2 to go. However, we know tidal Bay gets up the hill, his Cheltenham record over hurdles is 1,2,2,1,1 and even over fences it is 1,3,4 so he is a horse for the course. And of course, his trainer knows how to win this race. I think that if Big Buck’s makes a mistake, or just does not run to top form then this could be the one to take advantage. Certainly he will be carrying my e/w money as after standing in the Guiness stand screaming him home in the Arkle two years ago this lad owes me nothing.
SENTRY DUTY (
Won over 20f o this course last time out in a 3 runner race. Hit 4 of the hurdles. In my view not a good enough hurdler and not going to stay. Hasn’t raced over more than 2 ½ miles ever.
TIME FOR RUPERT (6)
Paul Webber’s charge was second best to tidal Bay in the Cleeve and almost lost second to Katchit on the run in (held on by a head). He was a big priced winner of a handicap over C and D the race before but that was very different company to the horses he will face next Thursday. I would be surprised if he was good enough for a place.
COUSIN VINNY
Could be a real springer this one. He was 5th in the Supreme last year, wasn’t able to match the pace of the winner but didn’t run like he would struggle in a longer race. 4 lengths behind Mikael D’Haguenet at Punchestown after that he has been campaigned over fences this term but holds his only festival entry here, and is available at 25/1 generally. Well worth a look
THE BEST OF THE REST
War of Attrition. Surely he can’t win this? While 33/1 might be a sporting e/w bet especially if you can get 4 places, I would love him to run well then take the National. Of course I am an old romantic about these things.
Katchit. Horses for courses? He has been out of love with the game since winning the Champion Hurdle 2 years ago but they have kept the faith. No-one rides Cheltenham better than Choc and his first run over this trip was in the Cleeve when he was never going to get to tidal Bay but stayed on really well to almost snatch second. You have to hope he will come on for that and if he does then 33/1 looks a big price. He might be a horse 9if you do this sort of thing) to back in running – maybe for a place -at very big odds because he will battle and fight all the way home. Alan Kings horses are running in to some form at the right time.
Cape tribulation. As J Francome would say “66 is a daft price about this horse”. I don’t see how he is so big in the market, he will relish the better ground that Cheltenham will provide having been running on unsuitably soft ground this season, and could be a big priced placer.
GEORDIE’S DAFT OUTSIDER
Pettitfour has won the John Smiths Yorkshire hurdle over 3 miles, won the Sefton as a novice and won a novice chase over C and D this season. He holds multiple festival entries, the 4 miler, the RSA, the Pertemps, this and the Kim Muir. At nrnb this looks like an opportunity to collect some money from the bookie (it may be the only one) during the festival because IF he runs in this I think he will run a big race, will have the pace to go with them and the stamina to be in the mix.
THE DANGEROUS BIT
Reccomended Bets
If you are a big player, and back odds – on then of course big buck’s is for you. For the rest of us I would go with the e/w, place, or even e/w without the favourite markets.
Tidal Bay is a knocking e/w bet. If he is out of the first 3 I will be very surprised and on the day they will be paying first 4 in most bookies. He’s my main bet
Katchit and Cape tribulation, e/w without big Buck’s market look good priced horses and even just plain e/w could be worth it
A silly e/w on Cape Trib, nrnb might mean you either get your money back or a nice little earner.
I will post a little final update on the Thursday morning, but that’s just bout it for the preview of this race. I’m dreaming of a Tidal Bay win, but it may be all blown away by the mighty Big buck’s. I wonder if I should try a forecast? _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
I share the dream but mine has TB and CV coming up the hill infront.cant see how TB who was a better chaser than BB cant be either as good or better over hurdles. _________________ sticks & stones may break my bones but whips & chains excite me
I've said it in another thread guys but this is your last chance...
Katchit 16-1 (w/o BB) 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3
C'mon, this has to be the each way steal of the festival.
As long as BB is in front of him he only has to finish 4th and if BB is behind him he'll finish at least third.
This horse is so like Nomadic Way it's not true.
Been kept at 2 miles for too long and is totally unexposed over 3 miles on decent ground (he doesn't want it soft...it's just helped him out over shorter trips in the past because it slows the others down).
He's as short as 22-1 in the outright market and his SP will be around 14s on the day so to be sitting on a NRNB wager at 16-1 without the odds on favourite placed a week before the event is going to look like shrewd placement.
You can get 16s w/o BB with Hills but that's a win only market. All those going each way are 12s apart from B365
I've just waded in for a top up.
If anything is going to shake up Big Bucks, I reckon it's Katchit (I'm on at 102 on Betfair to win), but the e-w w/o BB has to be the best value left for the Festival.
Falbrav _________________
"The gods only laugh when you ask them for money" (old Japanese saying). Never bet more than you can afford to lose!
Not to put anyone off because i can see where you are coming from for 16s to be a big price BUT
personally i cant see him either winning it or coming 2nd if BB does win it(which i dont think he will) which gives you the big payoff of 16s so you have 6/4 that he is either 3rd or 4th.
Not for me but at the odds you posted about other bookies you are ahead of the game in that respect. _________________ sticks & stones may break my bones but whips & chains excite me
But, and I know you should never blindly follow the herd, there are so many good judges making BB their absolute banker.
However, do I think Katchit can beat...
Karabak - yes! On ORs, he's put in the same run on each of the last four occasions. No evidence of improvement and funny to say for a son of a Derby winner but Kahyasi gets an awful lot of horses that go in soft ground and the dam's side of the pedigree would suggest softer than good is ideal.
Tidal Bay - yes, Both are unexposed as 3-mile hurdlers on god ground but Katchit is younger.
Sentry Duty - yes! Katchit has more stamina.
WOA - yes! Emerald Isle sentiment but nothing more.
Can't see Katchit out of the first four. CAN see him second or winning.
I agree that you should never back something each way because you think they might finish 3rd.
But I've got much more conviction than that.
Nomadic Way! Nomadic Way! Nomadic Way!
Falbrav _________________
"The gods only laugh when you ask them for money" (old Japanese saying). Never bet more than you can afford to lose!
And the 16s is still there - don't you dare go to sleep before you've backed Katchit.
He can't be 16s w/o BB when you wake up! _________________
"The gods only laugh when you ask them for money" (old Japanese saying). Never bet more than you can afford to lose!
Both prices gone now...I hope somebody got on last night?!! _________________
"The gods only laugh when you ask them for money" (old Japanese saying). Never bet more than you can afford to lose!
Very worryingly, I find myself agreeing with Falbrav here. I think Katchit will run a stormer in this. He did pretty well on his first attempt at 3m and that was on soft ground. I expect him to fair even better on the good/good-soft ground that looks likely at the moment. His course form is excellent and he'll have Choc on board. Bet365 are still going 28s in the outright market so I think I will have a dabble.
OK... 16 probably lining up for this. Best Prices are as follows (all generally available unless there is one stand out higher)
BIG BUCK'S 8/13 (PP)
Tidal Bay 7s
Karabak 15/2 (Coral)
Sentry Duty 14
Time for Rupert 20
KAtchit 25
Cousin Vinny 33
War of Attritioon 33
Powerstation 40
Lie Forrit 40
Mourad 40
Cape Tribulation 66
Fair Along 80
Ebadyian 150
Oscar DAn DAn 150
Royal and Regal 250
Ok of these lets just draw a line through the bottom 4 in the betting and we have 12 left.
Cape tribulation has some supporters. He may be overpriced at 66 but first 3 in this? You want a bookie offering first 4 at worst or back e/w without the favourite (Coral 40/1 not sure if thats win only?)
Mourad? Must be there to keep the stable mate company surely? Can't see him getting amongst these
Lie Forrit? Alistair Down had him as a horse to watch this season right back in September, he has gone up 40 pounds in the ratings this season but surely this is a step too far? Only 6 he will be better next year.
powerstation. No chance.
war of attrition. Am I just being sentimental about this/ Does his Irish form actually amount to anything? Will he be able to go with them at age 11? Will he swerve it and win the National? IF he lines up I would expect the 33s to have long gone because there will be a fair bit of emotional Irish money going down. He was 5 lengths behind powerstation in the christmas hurdle (level weights) then beat the same horse by 4 lengths (receiving 5) at Gowran and followed that up by beating Mourad a head in the Boyne (giving 7 pounds). That makes him (probably) about 2 stones short of Big buck's but there is somethign aboutt his horse that akes me want to think he has a chance. Dangerous way to bet but I love him so he's on my short list.
cousn vinny. overpriced at 33/1 in my view, I think mullins might be keeping a lot up his sleeve here. The horse has never run beyond 2m5, his 5th in last years supreme looks decent and he did all his work late; he may well have stamina in hand. I am smelling a plot here. On the short list.
KAtchit. 25/1 see above for others views but I am afraid I cant be having him in this. It is 2 years since he won a race and he has about 7 pounds to find on tidal bay of they run to the form of the clleeve. Sorry, but not for me
time for rupert. no it isnt. not a hope
sentry duty. another horse totally unexposed over this trip. his furtherst trip to date was lat time out at cheltenham over 2 1/2 miles when he looked to have stamina to burn. KAtchit supporters should watch a re-run of this race before putting money on the King horse because sentry duty would have won that race pulling a trailer and he was giving katchit 4 pounds. definitely on the list.
karabak hasn't won since leaving novice company; his second to Mikael DHaguenet last year in tehBallymore looked good but he hasnt stepped up enough in my view. While he was only 3 1/2 lengths behind BB last time out the market leader was not exactly stretched, so he has a lot to find. Way to short a price in my view.
Tidal BAy. In my vew the only one who stands a chance of upsetting the favourite. IF Bb has a slightly off day and IF tidal impoves just a little on his last run this will be the one theyre chasing. HAs course form, has run over this trip over fences, looked like he would mprove (certainly trainer thought so) for last run when he wasnt given a hard time and just pulled his way to the front. i was very excited watching him that day, i am very excited about his prospects now. on the strict form book he has 25 pounds to find over BB, but I think his hurdle rating is just too low, and ihave a doubt that BB is as good as he was. Knocking e/w bet at 7/1, I just cant see 3 of these beating him
Big Buck's. Joking aside, this isnt the shoo-in PN will have been expecting; I think of the big 3 champs (Kauto, MM BB) he is the most vulnerable. Way too short in the market, but the one to beat. In fairness he was less of a surprise last year than his price showed because Kasbah distorted the market badle, but can he repeat the dose? Not with my money.
So
If you want to buy some money there are 2 bets. BB to win (8/13) or tidal e/w (7/1) and the latter makes more sense BECAUSE
£100 win BB gets you £161.54
£50 e/w TB gets you - win share £400 Place share £120 (1/5) or £137.50 (1/4) so the win bet is basically free and the retunr (place v BB win) differential is marginal.
I wonder if Mullins is scheming cousin vinny here, ditto Henderson with Sentry Duy. WOA is the emotional bet and my dosh is on Tidal BAy
so Big Buck's to walk it then. _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
I have fancied Tidal Bay for this all season. I am not going to change my mind now. The favourite will obviously be hard to beat, but I got burnt fingers on MasterMinded so who knows.
_________________ If at first you dont succeed..then skydiving isnt for you
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