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[Swagger]

Champion Stakes
CITY LEADER EW at 50/1 Antepost - widely available

The Handicappers
Upton Grey
Staying On

The Boat
Hebridean

Lack of Class
Full of Gold

Overated
Famous Name

Underpriced
Traffic Guard - Big run last time out but in reality he was always held by New Approach on a course which would not have suited the latter and looks a little underpriced for this race at 14/1.
Twice Over - Tremendous course form but value has gone now and looks well underpriced at 5/1

Which Leaves
New Approach - Excellent chance to Win and a Worthy Favourite
Pipedreamer - Well held by New Approach's run in the Juddmonte
Russian Cross - Has a chance, this looks his trip and is well worthy of his place in the race but his price looks a bit skimpy at 6/1.
Linngari - Difficult horse to weigh up, his form is very much in and out but he does have his good days. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 14/1 but I just don't see it happening for him myself. Place chance.
City Leader - Crazy price of 50/1, disrespectful and an insult. Classy type who has run far better than his recent results have shown to date this season.

- Needed the run in the Craven
- Went past Top Lock like he was 'standing still and mine is no mug' - Andrew Balding, trainer of Top Lock in the David Wilson Homes Stakes at Goodwood
- Arguably didn't get the trip of 1 mile 4 furlongs and couldn't let himself down properly on unfavourable road like ground in the King Edward VII Stakes and a stop start pace dictated by Frankie made it a non-event. This is his only poor performance this season and it could easily be put down to the ground as he hasn't looked like a fast ground horse in my eyes.

- MAISONS-LAFFITTE
27  July 2008
Good  
3:50 Prix Eugene Adam (Group 2) (Right-handed) (3yo)   1m2f  
[off 3:52] £167,647.00, £64,706.00, £30,882.00, £20,588.00, £10,294.00      
    Draw  TRAINER  Age Wgt  JOCKEY  SP  OR TS RPR  
1   Twice Over (GB) 2   H R A Cecil  3  9-2   Ted Durcan  11/8F    100  114  
2 ¾ City Leader (IRE) 9  B J Meehan 3  9-2  Richard Hughes 12/1   98  113  
3 nk Chinchon (IRE) 7  C Laffon-Parias 3  9-2  M Blancpain 9/1   97  112  
4 nk Ideal World (USA) 4  A Fabre 3  9-2  S Pasquier 13/2   96  111  
5 ¾ Collection (IRE) 3  W J Haggas 3  9-2  Kerrin McEvoy 7/2   94  110  
6 1½ In Chambers (GB) 8  M Delzangles 3  9-2  C Soumillon 16/1   91  107  
7 ¾ Hello Morning  1  Mme C Head-Maarek 3  9-2  Alexis Badel 12/1   89  105  
8 ½ Hopes And Fears (IRE) 6  J-C Rouget 3  9-2  C-P Lemaire 20/1   88  104  
9 1 Mundybash (GB) 5  N Clement 3  9-2  T Thulliez 16/1   86  102  
10 nse Lancetto  10  Mario Hofer 3  9-2  O Peslier 33/1   85  102  
10 ran TIME 2m 7.80s (slow by 3.80s)    TOTAL SP 122%
City Leader
held up in last, headway down outside from 2f out, 7th 1f out, stayed on well, took 2nd close home

- DEAUVILLE
23  August 2008
Good  
    My Result        Result        
3:15 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano (Group 2) (3yo)   1m2f  
[off 3:20] £54,485.00, £21,029.00, £10,037.00, £6,691.00, £3,346.00      
    Draw  TRAINER  Age Wgt  JOCKEY  SP  OR TS RPR  
1   Russian Cross (IRE) 1   A Fabre  3  8-12   J Victoire  11/2    71  118  
2 1½ River Proud (USA) 7  P F I Cole 3  8-12  C Soumillon 23/10J   68  115  
3 nk City Leader (IRE) 4  B J Meehan 3  8-12  D Bonilla 42/10   67  114  
4 1½ Chinchon (IRE) 3  C Laffon-Parias 3  8-12  M Blancpain 89/10   64  111  
5 2 Blue Bresil  8  L Larrigade 3  8-12  W Mongil 33/1   61  107  
6 2½ Starlish (IRE) 2  E Lellouche 3  8-12  A Crastus 30/1   56  102  
7 nk Twice Over (GB) 5  H R A Cecil 3  9-2  S Pasquier 23/10J   59  106  
8 5 Change The World (IRE) 6  J-C Rouget 3  8-12  I Mendizabal 15/1   45  92  
8 ran TIME 2m 8.50s (slow by 4.00s)    TOTAL SP 117%  
City Leader
raced in 4th, squeezed up and hampered over 2 1/2f out, 4th straight, went 3rd over 1f out, stayed on final furlong

- LONGCHAMP
14  September 2008
Good To Soft  
3:00 Qatar Prix Niel (Group 2) (Colts & Fillies) (3yo)   1m4f  
[off 3:00] £54,485.00, £21,029.00, £10,037.00, £6,691.00, £3,346.00      
    Draw  TRAINER  Age Wgt  JOCKEY  SP  OR TS RPR  
1   Vision D´Etat  4   E Libaud  3  9-2   I Mendizabal  15/8    116  117+  
2 nse Ideal World (USA) 1  A Fabre 3  9-2  S Pasquier 9/1   116  116  
3 1½ Centennial (IRE) 6  J H M Gosden 3  9-2 b Jimmy Fortune 10/1   113  114  
4 snk City Leader (IRE) 2  B J Meehan 3  9-2  Jamie Spencer 10/1   113  114  
5 3 King Of Rome (IRE) 7  A P O´Brien 3  9-2  C O´Donoghue 12/1   108  109  
6 1 Prospect Wells (FR) 5  A Fabre 3  9-2  O Peslier 13/8F   107  107  
7 1½ Full Of Gold  3  Mme C Head-Maarek 3  9-2  T Gillet 33/1   104  105  
7 ran TIME 2m 27.40s (fast by 4.10s)    TOTAL SP 111%
City Leader ran a fine race over a trip that arguably stretches his stamina.

His best form came at the backend of last season and he has done the same this season. He has had a nice break since the Prix Niel which should set him up nicely for a big run on Saturday. There is nothing between him and Twice Over in their last two runs, the latter obviously has strong course form but that doesn't justify making City Leader 10 times the price, especially being trained by a man who knows how to prepare a horse and cause a shock for this race.

City Leader has a bit to find on the ratings but I think he has an excellent chance of placing and 50/1 is a huge price for a horse who will be no bigger than 25/1 on the day, probably shorter around the 16/1 bracket.

Recommended Bet:
CITY LEADER @ 50/1 EW Antepost (Best Odds Guaranteed) - Bet365/StanJames/Boylesports/BetDirect

I may back New Approach to Win or Russian Cross EW on the day as well, it depends on how the market shapes up but City Leader, a horse I have always rated, has to be in my portfolio at this stage.

Regards.


_________________
www.kierenfallon.co.uk