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[Owl of Minerva]

I have a monster (10pt) bet in mind for this weekend. Just hoping the horse is declared, the rain stays away and the price is right. I'll post again on Thursday or Friday once the final declarations are done. Quite excited about this one.

Owl

[Owl of Minerva]

I am so so so so so gutted. Horse missed the cut by just one I think: horse in question was Carniolan in the 7f handicap at Ascot on Saturday. Would have been 10/1 or so but probably should have been 2/1 at the most. There were no dangers in the race at all. The horse is clearly (to my eye) group class and would have run off 92 on Saturday with perfect conditions.

This is one that got away as he may not get his ground again this season now and won't be such a big price if he lines up in a weak race etc. Was the bet of the season so far but not going to be able to play. Gutted.  

[Owl of Minerva]

The Wise Owl - Saturday 27th September 2008 (All selections 1-10 Points)

15.40 Ascot: Al Muheer 1pt E/W @ 50/1 (Blue Sq, Paddy Power: 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4,5 places, 66/1 with Ladbrokes) + 3pts PLACE (Betfair)
16.15 Ascot: Tamayuz 10pts WIN @ 2/1 (Stan James - Best Odds Guaranteed)


RUNNING TOTAL: +101.24 Points

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Fresh from the disappointment of Carniolan failing to make the cut for the race, I have gone back to take another look at the big 7f handicap at Ascot. The most striking thing about the line up is the distinct absence of improvers for a race worth the best part of £100,000 to the winner. The handicapper knows plenty about the market leaders Mastership, Giganticus and Zaahid. It is possible that they could go off at 11/1 the field. The one to make most appeal at the prices is rank outsider Al Muheer. This horse is not all that well handicapped off 98, but the beauty of this race is that neither are many of his rivals. At 50/1 (66/1 with Ladbrokes) I think he is well worth an interest. His two best runs this season have both been in defeat at Ascot in decent races (form has worked out) over 6f (RPR 103, TS 103) and 8f (RPR 104, TS 104). So we know he likes the track, and I think there is reason to believe that 7f is his optimum trip as he was slightly outpaced 2f out in the 6f race on Shergar Cup day before rallying well in the final furliong. In the 1m handicap here before that he travelled noticeably well before fading late on. If he can improve slightly on these efforts and run something equivalent to an RPR 105 then he has every chance of going close here. His price is so big because of two seemingly tame efforts the last twice. But I think it is fairly easy to forgive him both of these. He was simply outclassed and outpaced over 6f on fast ground in a Listed race at Newmarket. Last time at Chester he was very slowly away and got well behind before coming from way back 2f out to be a respectable never nearer 8th, beaten about 4 lengths. He has been dropped 2lbs for that and now, back at a track he appears to like at what seems to be his best trip, he is massively overpriced against a load of exposed rivals. As well as backing him each way with a firm paying 5 places I will also have a few points on him to place as I am sure he can make the frame.

In the feature race of the day, the QEII at Ascot, it seems that many fancy Henrythenavigator to get back to winning ways after disappointing on apparently unsuitable ground last time. I don't. I think the French raider Tamayuz will prove himself different gear to his rivals here. I wasn't sure whether I would play in the race earlier in the week when Tamayuz opened up at around the 5/4 and 11/8 mark. However, the 2/1 that is now available is way too big to resist in what is effectively a 3 horse race. Tamayuz is lightly raced, improving rapidly and clocked a fast time when thrashing his rivals last time. Henrythenavigator is admirable but he has had a long hard season, was slighltly disappointing in France (I don't really think the ground was all that soft and he should have done better in my opinion) and I think he may be ready for 10f. Raven's Pass is a horse that I really like and, having backed him at Ascot and Goodwood, I would love to see him take a deserved Group 1. However the word is that he may not be fully tuned up for this (with the Breeders Cup Mile in mind) and he has also been beaten by Tamayuz before. Furthermore he has been on the go since the Craven meeting and the 7/2 is short enough all things considered. In short, I am I expecting to see Tamayuz race prominently and kick clear when they come into the straight to score pretty decisively. He is worth a miximum bet at the price. Raven's Pass is the value call for the forecast.


Regards

Owl

[Owl of Minerva]

Rubbish! Only just seen the full results (been on the gas for a couple of days   ) but had heard that Raven's Pass had won. Pleased for the horse and connections - I think we now know that he would probably have beaten Henry at Ascot and Goodwood with more positive tactics - not much good to me now though after backing him those two times but not on Saturday!    Very disappointed with Tamayuz. Al Muheer also disappointing. Must do better

RUNNING TOTAL: +86.24 Points