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[RightJudgeIam]

Well, Young Mick was extremely unlucky not to win that race today.. got stopped twice when looking to come with a run and yet still picked up and got second. He surely would have won with a clear passage.

Anyway, no damage done with both selections placing so a decent weekend of punting all in all

start bank 100 points

running total 200.5 points


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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

The first day of Glorious Goodwood is upon us and if the weather tipsters are right there's going to be plenty of rain around which might affect the draw and the going.

Anyway, that won't affect the days' banker bet who runs:

4:40   Detica Summer Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105)  £15,577.50   1m6f GOOD  

Jeremy Noseda has kept the unbeaten Milne Graden back for this race and even though he was raised 12lb for winning on his seasonal debut (10 furlongs at this track) there are strong reasons to believe he could still be a long way in front of the handicapper. The trainer clearly believes the horse wants this step up in trip as he has him entered in the Ebor Handicap and the Irish St. Leger and RPR rated his latest effort some 11lb higher than the mark he runs off here. I have to give him the chance to prove them right.

Mark Johnston, Luca Cumani and Godolphin have all won this race in recent years and all are represented again and any of them could have plotted this race. However, they will have had to really hide their light under a bushel to get the better of the Noseda horse if he runs up to expectations.

Hopefully, we will be celebrating a nice victory and can just sit back and enjoy:

5:15   Tatler Summer Season Stakes (Handicap) (Class 3) (3yo+,0-90)  £12,952.00   1m GOOD  

I am assuming that the usual draw advantage applies and that the place to be is amongst the high numbers. This is not a great race and there are a whole bunch of averagely handicapped horses running. Luck in running is also going to play a big part and no doubt there will be hard luck stories.

Swagger has brought to our attention the Mark Johnston trained Prince of Light and has highlighted how extremely well handicapped he is. Certainly he has form from last year that would entitle him to win this. Drawn in stall 4, which may not suit his run style, and with the likelihood of going on the soft side of good I will pass over him. I will be paying close attention though.

Anyway, in brief as I'm only having a small bet, I am going to give Woodcote Place a whirl at a reasonably big price here. He is drawn in stall 20 which I hope will turn out to be an advantage. He ran in this race last year off a mark of 84 and finished 4th despite not getting a clear run and this year can run off 79. He is a course winner, will go on any going and ran several RPRs in the 90s last season so off this mark he is clearly capable of going close. He will definitely need some luck in running, as he comes from off the pace, and I am just hoping that the trainer turned to his owner straight after the race last year (when he didn't get a clear run) and said..

"Right! We'll bloody well come back and win this next year"  

At around 25/1 I reckon it's worth the risk...he has not had another try at 1 mile since this race last year and that could have been entirely deliberate

Recommended Bet

back Milne Graden 10 points win at 2/1+ best morning price

back Woodcote Place  3 points ew

start bank 100 points
running total  184.5 points

ps At midnight Woodcote Place is trading 19/19.5 on Betfair
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

I am absolutely kicking myself tonight.

Firstly, I gave serious condideration to Gulf Express in the first who won at 10/1 today...he had been second in a falsely run race when beaten by Kaateb who we backed when he won at Sandown.

Secondly, I also gave deep thought to Yamal who also won today. He had beaten Red Somerset who we also backed when he won at Ascot (primarily based on his close second to Yamal)... but decided against him as he had only run the other day

and of course Nevada Desert, who I actually did bet (as a saver) in the My Paris race, won today at Beverley...

anyway, decisions decisions that's what it's all about...

onwards and upwards
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Wednesday 30th July

The Goodwood card looks extremely trappy today and I won't be having a bet there today. Instead I have found a poor race at Redcar mainly featuring exposed badly handicapped non winners..

2:40   Celebrating Dick Glarvey Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-70)  £2,590.40   1m2f GD-FM  

David Barrons' King of the Moors is a quirky individual there is no doubting that. However, he races off a mark some 8lb lower than his last winning mark, which was incidentally over this C&D, and faces a whole bunch of frankly no hopers in this race. He is a confirmed front runner yet has been held up in his last few starts so I am expecting the stable apprentice Neil Brown to bounce out in front and make all. He knows the horse well. Forecast around 13/2 I cant believe he wont reach the frame and he could absolutely hack up if things go his way. I would like to see him get a relatively soft lead, without any pace pressure, and for him to settle well (he can pull hard)...if that happens I can see him putting this motley lot to the sword

Recommended Bet

back King of the Moors  7 points ew

start bank 100 points
running total 170.5 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Friday 1st August

Hoping to continue my good run of Friday form

3:30   totesport Mile (Heritage Handicap) (formerly known as The Golden Mile) (Class 2) (3yo+)  £93,465.00   1m GD-FM  

I reckon the key to this race is the Toteswinger handicap at Sandown that Lovelace won. I agree with Swagger here that Dubais' Touch is worth a punt from a stable that has hit form with avengence. Drawn well and a winner at this meeting in a Listed race in 2007, over C&D, he will do for me.

2:50   Rolf Group Stewards' Sprint Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)  £18,693.00   6f GD-FM  

There are two pieces of form that stand out here for me.

Baby Strange ran a cracker in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton recently to be just touched off by Knot in Wood. He is drawn high here.

Express Wish ran 3rd in a hot race at York recently despite not getting the best of runs. He has the visor on first time and Dettori in the plate. He is drawn on the other side to Baby Strange so I am covering both sides by betting them both.

There are any number of decent sprint handicappers including the usual army of Dandy Nicholls runners and any of those could win but it is almost impossible to guess which will be best.

7:30   Gl Events Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+,0-90)  £9,066.40   6f GD-FM  

Methaaly is undoubtedly well handicapped after romping home by over 4 lengths at York recently and he could dot up. However he is likely to be overbet and there must be value in opposing him.

Dressed to Dance remains in top form and did well to get up for second at Pontefract latest. I'm sure she will run her race and that would ensure she places at least.

Recommended bets

Back Dubais Touch 10 points ew at best morning price

Back Baby Strange 3 points win

Back Express Wish 7 points win

Back Dressed to Dance 5 points ew

start bank 100 points

running total 130.5 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Well it's a real shame that we didn't end up making a very nice profit today

Dubais Touch ran well and got in the frame easily. 10/1 Placed

Baby Strange was very unlucky not to win in a photo and was beaten a nose...

Baby Strange
in touch in midfield, ridden and headway halfway, pressed leaders entering final furlong, led last 100yds, headed last stride

a bit annoying as I was uncertain as to the effect of the draw so decided to bet one on each side of the track...

Everything went wrong tonight for Dressed to Dance. She reared leaving the stalls but recovered well to be in contention and just when she was about to go she got clobbered from the outside. Methaaly did indeed get beat, as I expected, and it's just a shame that she had no luck.

There's plenty to get stuck into on Saturday and I will be posting later.

Start Bank 100 points

running total 165.5 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Saturday 2nd August

A busy day for me so I'll cut to the chase

3:30   HSS Hire Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+,0-90)  £10,361.60   1m2f GD-FM  

I backed Redesignation each way when he ran second on his latest start and was ever so slightly unlucky in running. That has turned out to be a blessing in disguise as he races off the same mark here. He would prefer the going to remain fast I am simply expecting him to win. He is currently available at 9/4 which is more than fair.

3:05   Ekosgen Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+,0-90)  £8,159.76   1m GD-SFT  

I aslo backed My Paris on his latest start when he was 3rd at Ripon. He has been dropped a further 2 lbs and returns to the C&D of his best run this season in the Thirsk Hunt Cup off 8lb higher. He is drawn low again and this time I really hope Tony Hamilton bangs him out in front and makes it a very hard run race. There are of course dangers but this represents his best chance this season.

3:50   Bluesquare.com Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)  £62,310.00   6f GD-FM  

A typically tough huge field cavalry charge of a race. As I always say 'handicap form in handicap races' and this means I am dismissing all those who owe their position in the betting market to performances in non handicap races including Prime Defender and Bordelescott. Off the Record won one these huge field handicaps at Newmarket earlier in the season when he had the likes of Knot in Wood, Beaver Patrol, Kings Apostle and others behind. Richard Hughes who won on him that day is reunited for the first time since and with a favoured high draw he can run a huge race again off just 3lb higher.

Recommended Bets

Back Redesignation 20 points win at 2/1+ or best morning price

Back My Paris 5 points each way at best morning price

Back Off the Record  2 points win 5 points place at 20/1+

Off to finish my BBQ now so wishing everyone a great weekend

start bank 100 points

running total 128.5 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Monday 4th August

Quite a decent card at Ripon and there are two races I am getting involved in

3:15   Armstrong Memorial Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+,0-95)  £9,346.50   6f GOOD  

Some old favourites in here including Grazeon Gold Blend who we have backed twice recently (1 win and 1 each way placed) but Mick Channons' Ajigolo is particularly well in here if he can reproduce his effort at Goodwood the other day off a 2lb lower mark.

3:45   Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+,0-85)  £4,731.00   1m1f170y GOOD  

Veiled Applause won well over C&D in May beating the likes of Goodbye Mr Bond. After a couple of defeats he has been dropped to a more reasonable mark and with the jockey claiming 7lbs he has a great chance of repeating the trick in lower grade. On his last start for instance he was behind the extremely well handicapped (as we know) Kaateb who won easily next time off the same mark. He faces nothing of that calibre in this class 4 race.

Recommended bets

back Ajigolo 6 points win

backed Veiled Applause 5 points ew

2.5 point each way double on these two

start bank 100 points

running total 107.5 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Ajigolo is a surprisingly big price and I have backed him each way at 6/1

Veiled Applause has been smashed in and I am on at 9/1...generally 6/1 and 11/2 now, which is hopefully a good sign
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Wednesday 6th August

Amazingly for a mid week card there are some decent handicaps to get stuck into and I am hopeful.

There is a decent 12 furlong race at Pontefract:

3:40   Big Fellas & Silks Nightclub Pontefract Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+,0-90)  £9,346.50   1m4f8y GOOD   15 declared

The favourite here, Boz, from the Cumani/Spencer combo has to be feared as he dotted up on his latest start and could be in front of even his new 9lb higher mark. However, I do have to take him on.

Mick Channons' Royal Jet ran in the Pippa Greene/ Young Mick race the other day and that is no doubt good form. However, the handicapper has him and he remains vulnerable off this mark.

Red Wine is on a nice mark too and would be dangerous if the rain comes and probably won't run if it doesn't.

However, Rod Millman sends Mustajed for this and he gets to race off 78 which is really low for him (has won off 78, 82 and 84). For most of lat season he was running off marks in the high 80s in class 2 races and often getting RPRs of 90+. Even this season he ran 89 when 3rd to Punjabi over 10 furlongs at Sandown and since then I have been waiting for him to get a strongly run race over 12 furlongs which is what he needs... and I'm hopeful he will get it here. He does not however want much rain and may be pulled if it goes soft. At a big price I am prepared to have a go at him in the hope it all comes together today.

3:00   Jack Sandhu Pub Co Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-70)  £3,154.00   1m1f209y GD-FM  

Backing maidens with a 'reputation' in handicaps is not seen as a great punting methodology so it may seem strange that I'm going to have a huge bet on Spanish Diva. Indeed, on both her last starts, Racing Post analysis has commented on her seeming reluctance to win as she has been second both times. However, look a little closer and you will see she pulled 4 lengths clear of the third the first time and 6 lengths the second and the form is very strong in the context of this race. She was awarded RPR 78 the first time and may well get higher than that for the race two days ago.. she runs off 67 here and William Carson takes over claiming a further 7lbs.

However, the main reason I am steaming in is the opposition, none of which seems capable of raising a leg lately and I am sure there will be some very long faces at the Stuart Williams yard should this get beat...I'm sure they will all be on heavy as they know the horse is chucked in against a load of rubbish.

4:00   John Smith's Brighton Mile Challenge Trophy (Handicap) (Class 4) (3yo+,0-80)  £15,480.00   7f214y GD-FM  

A very decent race for this course which features a couple at the top that ran really well at the Goodwood meeting.

Count Ceprano bolted in in the apprentices race that closed the meeting over 9 furlongs under David Probert (again in the saddle). He carries no penalty and races off the same mark and will surely run a big race again. Interestingly, prior to winning, he had run in the Bath race fought out by Yamal and Red Somerset (both winners again) which highlights the strength of that race. Betting markets are unpredictable these days but at the moment he is around 5/1 (forecast) which seems big to me. If he were to drift for some reason I would definitely be backing him, but I suspect he will be much shorter than that.

Therefore, my main attention is on Ivory Lace who actually ran 4th at Goodwood in the race won by, you guessed it, Yamal. The thing with this mare is that she loves both fast ground and tracks like this (has won 2 races at Goodwood and 3 times at Brighton) and has a tremendous turn of foot. She won off 83 and 85 in 2007, in August and September, and can race off just 80 here. I am hoping we can get 7/1 or so as that would represent an outstanding each way betting opportunity as I really can't see her out of the frame (7.6 to lay on Betfair now). The weather is forecast to stay dry and that's important as she does need fast. Jim Crowley who has ridden her to victory in 3 of her last 4 wins is back in the plate and everything looks set for her to run a huge race.

Well, hopefully things work out a bit better than of late, we get the races run to suit (all need true run races) and the jockeys ride well.

Recommended bets

back Mustajed 2 points each way

back Spanish Diva 10 points win best morning price

back Ivory Lace 5 points each way best morning price

5 point each way double Spanish Diva and Ivory Lace

ps dont forget it may well be worth saving on Count Ceprano if he gets big

start bank 100 points
running total  73 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Just to let you know I was intending to have some bets at the York meeting but with the going now heavy I have decided to wait. Heavy going makes races far more unpredictable and I prefer to wait for a rock solid betting opportunity.

I watching pretty much all the olympic coverage I can...  
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Hello again folks. I've been engrossed in the Olympics for the last two weeks and have been having a break to enjoy it. However, the weekend is here and it's time to starting finding some punts.

Friday 22nd August Newmarket

4:10   RENAULT TRAFIC HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-85) Winner £6,476.00   6f GD-FM

I have been waiting for Special Day to run over this trip in lower grade and today looks the day. Barry Hills 4yo filly has not won since her debut but has been running in hot races of marks in the mid to high 80s.

Here she gets a drop in grade and can run off just 83 in a class 4 race. On this day in 2007 she ran a very close second of twenty at York, off 86 in class 2, drawing more than 3 lengths clear of the likes of Morinqua and Valery Borzov.

Earlsmedic from the Stuart Williams yard hacked up latest and under a penalty is still extremely well handicapped on that form. He is forecast at 9/4 on the RP site but could well drift if the layers get it in their head that he is bad value. Sure to run a big race.

Nevertheless, Special Day looks set to run a huge race off this mark in this grade over this trip. Yet again I am hoping for a true run race to sort the wheat from the chaff

Recommended Bet

back Special Day 5 points win and 10 points place

start bank 100 points
running total 58 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Friday 29th August

Hamilton

4:50     SODEXO STOP HUNGER CHARITY HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-80) Winner £7,123.60   6f5y GD-SFT  

Our old friend Grazeon Gold Blend has been running well since we landed a maximum bet with him a while ago. However, on his latest start exactly a week ago over this course and distance he ran his best race of the season so far, recording RPR 87. Here, he runs off the same mark of 77. It is possible that he appreciated the softer going and so the current good-soft is likely to suit well.

Recommended bet

back Grazeon Gold Blend 10 points win at best morning price

start bank 100 points
running total 48 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Hi Folks long time since I had a decent bet on a handicap so I'm hoping I chosen the right time to step back into the fray. Here goes:

Haydock Saturday 27th Sept

3:35   Betfred Lester Piggott "Start To Finish" Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+,0-100)  £19,428.00   5f GD-FM  

I have been through the runners here many times and my conclusion is that there are very few in here that are on a mark they can win off. We have the likes of Cheveton who has done tremendously well to win 5 handicaps in a row but now off 93 he is going to start finding it tough out there. Similar comments apply to the likes of Judd Street (and those who have known me for some time will know that he is a horse I picked up on early in his career). Similarly, Toms Laughter and Aegean Dancer look on stiff marks.

After doing my elimination process I am left with Fyodor, Northern Empire, Invincible Force, Fol Hollow and Prior Warning. Fyodor is the likely favourite and is back on his last winning mark. He has the blinkers on first time and he won off this mark in a first time visor. I won't be surprised if he ends up winning.

Northern Empire has one nice piece of form that would entitle him to go close here. However, at 5 years old and without a handicap turf win to his name I am dismissing him.

Prior Warning is an ex French horse that won a couple of Listed races over there. He has a nice piece of form in the book over here and is on a fair mark. I just reckon 5 furlongs on fast going is not ideal for him.

Invincible Force is closely matched with Fyodor on C&D form in May. He has had plenty of chances off similar marks and not been able to take advantage and I imagine it will be a similar story here.

Adele Rothery gets the leg up on Dandy Nicholls Fol Hollow for the first time and her 7lb claim could be decisive. This 3 year old has two 5 furlong handicap wins to his name, both on fast ground, and conditions here should suit. On his seasonal debut he ran a cracking race off 95 in a decent handicap at HQ, posting RPR 101, and only getting beat 3/4 length after leading most of the way over six furlongs. Here he gets to race off 88 and that is reduced further by the jockeys claim.

Fol Hollow appreciates front running tactics on fast ground but does not like to be like to be crowded or hassled for the lead. He is drawn in 16 next to the rail in this race so I am hoping Adele can get him out and away quickly. I've checked the other runners drawn near her and only Invincible Force (drawn 10) has shown the tendency to lead. He, however, is ridden by Jamie Spencer and I hope he sticks to type and rides a waiting race.

There is a chance the draw they will all race up the middle and that could count as a negative and he definitely needs fast going to show his best so check the going before betting.

Recommended Bet

Back Fol Hollow 5 points ew (ideally on Betfair to guarantee 4 places)



Start Bank 100 points

running total 38 points
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RJI