forum.sports-pro.co.uk

[Swagger]

15.10 Sandown

KING CHARLES is my selection here at an amazing 25/1.

Why are we getting that price?
- Many would think he is badly handicapped, but in my view, he has up to 12 lbs potentially in hand of the handicapper granted his optimum race conditions as i rate him as a listed/Group 3 horse running off a mark of 99. I also think he is still improving.
- He needs a strong pace, so has looked ordinary in the past off a slow pace and even badly handicapped off a lower mark than 99, but this wasn't the case as he has subsequently won since those runs.
+ There are several front runners/horses who like to be up with the pace, and with 16 runners, i fully expect a strong pace.
+ He will appreciate the Fast ground
+ All of his wins have come in September, late in the summer. This appears to be the time of year in which he excels himself on a racecourse.
+ I like the jockey booking of Jimmy Fortune. Along with Seb Sanders, when they don't ride for their respective bosses, they seem to be job jockeys, as in booked to get the job done and win the race. It's also interesting that Jimmy Fortune isn't riding for Luca Cumani or Mark Johnston in this race when he has often been booked to get the job done for them in past. Maybe he can't do the weight for the Johnston pair, but it's still an eye-catching booking and a positive one for King Charles.

This race was run at a decent clip and is arguably one of the best pieces of form in the race;

ASCOT
21  June 2008
Good To Firm  
5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105)   1m4f  
[off 5:01] £37,386.00, £11,196.00, £5,598.00, £2,802.00, £1,398.00, £702.00      
    Draw  TRAINER  Age Wgt  JOCKEY  SP  OR TS RPR  
1   Sugar Ray (IRE) 14   Sir Michael Stoute  4  9-0 t  Ryan Moore  8/1  95  84  106  
2 nk Mad Rush (USA) 10  L M Cumani 4  9-2  Jimmy Fortune 5/2F 97  85  108  
3 1¾ King Charles (GB) 17  E A L Dunlop 4  9-2  Kerrin McEvoy 18/1 97  83  105+  
4 ½ Young Mick  2  G G Margarson 6  9-5 v Robert Winston 20/1 100  85  107  
5 ½ Furmigadelagiusta  7  K R Burke 4  9-3  J Murtagh 20/1 98  82  105  
6 nk Proponent (IRE) 4  R Charlton 4  9-2  Steve Drowne 8/1 97  81  103+  
7 ¾ Camps Bay (USA) 1  Mrs A J Perrett 4  9-3  Jim Crowley 11/1 98  80  103+  
8 1¾ Night Crescendo (USA) 9  Mrs A J Perrett 5  9-2  M J Kinane 16/1 97  77  99  
9 ¾ Pevensey (IRE) 3  J J Quinn 6  9-0  Graham Gibbons 14/1 95  73  98+  
10 1¾ Smart Instinct (USA) 13  R A Fahey 4  8-13  Paul Hanagan 20/1 94  70  92  
11 hd Ezdiyaad (IRE) 15  M P Tregoning 4  9-5  R Hills 7/1 100  75  98  
12 3¾ Strategic Mount  8  P F I Cole 5  9-1  T Quinn 33/1 96  65  88  
13 ½ Capable Guest (IRE) 6  M R Channon 6  9-0 v Richard Hughes 33/1 95  63  86  
14 1¾ Pinch Of Salt (IRE) 11  A M Balding 5  8-13  William Buick 33/1 94  59  82  
15 nk Players Please (USA) 16  M Johnston 4  9-0  John Egan 33/1 95  60  83  
16 12 Coeur De Lionne (IRE) 12  E A L Dunlop 4  9-2  Ted Durcan 33/1 97  42  66  
17 5 Jadalee (IRE) 18  G A Butler 5  9-10  N Callan 50/1 105  41  66  
18 1½ Gulf Express (USA) 19  Sir Michael Stoute 4  9-1  Jamie Spencer 16/1 96  30  54+  
19 hd Evident Pride (USA) 5  B R Johnson 5  9-0  Dane O´Neill 33/1 95  28  53  
19 ran TIME 2m 32.95s (slow by 2.95s)    TOTAL SP 129%

It was a longer trip but i think King Charles will have no problems returning to 10 furlongs today

YORK
14  May 2008
Good To Firm  
1:40 William Birch And Sons Construction Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+,0-100)  (1m2f88y) 1m2½f  
[off 1:41] £16,513.80, £4,913.85, £2,455.65, £1,226.55          
    Draw  TRAINER  Age Wgt  JOCKEY  SP  OR TS RPR  
1   Folk Opera (IRE) 8   Saeed Bin Suroor  4  9-4   L Dettori  6/1  94  83  106  
2 ¾ Tastahil (IRE) 10  B W Hills 4  8-7  R Hills 9/2J 83  71  94  
3 shd Supaseus  4  H Morrison 5  9-6  Steve Drowne 9/1 96  84  107  
4 1¾ Smart Instinct (USA) 2  R A Fahey 4  9-3  Paul Hanagan 17/2 93  78  100  
5 ½ King Charles  9  E A L Dunlop 4  9-6  Jimmy Fortune 9/2J 96  80  102  
6 2 Impeller (IRE) 3  Jane Chapple-Hyam 9  9-4  John Egan 16/1 94  74  96  
7 ¾ Gulf Express (USA) 1  Sir Michael Stoute 4  9-7  Ryan Moore 11/2 97  76  100+  
8 nk Ladies Best  6  L M Cumani 4  9-7  Jamie Spencer 16/1 97  75  97  
9 2 Blue Spinnaker (IRE) 12  M W Easterby 9  8-8  Paul Mulrennan 14/1 84  58  81  
10 ½ Fort Amhurst (IRE) 11  M W Easterby 4  8-7 1 Dale Gibson 100/1 83  57  79?  
11 2¼ Mesbaah (IRE) 5  R A Fahey 4  9-1  Tony Hamilton 28/1 91  60  82  
12 6 Capable Guest (IRE) 7  M R Channon 6  9-2  Chris Catlin 18/1 92  50  72  
12 ran TIME 2m 10.43s (slow by 1.33s)    TOTAL SP 114%

This was also a huge run from King Charles considering the lack of pace in the race.

Recommended Bet
KING CHARLES - 25/1 to Win and 9/2 to Place on Betfair (You are guaranteed 4 places on betfair regardless of any further non-runners)

In the first race on the card I like BARSHIBA, and think she is a great price at 9/2. She has the best form in the race, will really appreciate the fast ground and despite her poor race/win ratio, she is stepping down significantly in grade today and i think she can take full advantage.

Regards.


_________________
www.kierenfallon.co.uk

[Swagger]

I have to state that i was very disappointed in the run by King Charles and I am at a loss to explain/justify his poor run.

Having been heavily backed on betfair from 30.0 into 14.5 and from 25/1 into 14/1 with the bookmakers, he travelled well within himself until the last 3/4 furlongs and went out like a light.

He had a strong pace, decent ground and having beaten Propenent (who seems tripless) and Lang Shining previously, I think King Charles ran well below par for a reason I am unaware of.

Regards.
_________________
www.kierenfallon.co.uk