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Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:28 pm Post subject: BALLYMORE NOVICE HURDLE
Just been having a look through the antepost market for this and one at the prices really stands out with a couple of nice prices too. Elusive Dream hasn't really impressed at all in his displays so far(I know i might really have to regret saying that) and at 14/1 is ridiculous. Cork All Star who has been impressive will more than likely be aimed at the Supreme novice. Therefore i have three left on my shortlist at this moment. Snap Tie and marleybow are the first two as i believe both made very good starts this year and watching marleybow's display last week he was not that visually impressive as he wandered infront of a few hurdles but he stuck to the task well and his bumpre form has worked out extremely well therefore i've had a small play at 44's as i know Howard Johnson rates him very highly. Snap Tie really could be anything as he is a big shell of a horse who i hope will fill out with more racing but also looks better suited to chasing. But with a win at cheltenham already this one could really progress over the season so i've taken a bit of 22's. Now the one that really stands out is Knockavilla at a price of 60. I have been throughly impressed by him on both his starts although he did hang badly left on his debut but going left handed on his second start he jumped with precision throughout and powered through on the bridle to score very easily beating a ok-ish sort in Go Tech. But the most impressive thing about him is his engine he is a really strong mover and should be suited by a step up in trip, he also looks foward for one with only two career rules starts to his name. He looks a really good price to me and i've dreams of riding out the finish with Denis up the hill come march hopefully!!
I am sure that the contenders for this race will be much more clear after Christmas, so I am not betting at the moment......
I did not see Elusive Dream's runs, but the writes ups and distances were impressive, I cannot therefore rule him out and he would be on my short list along with Crocodlies Rock who I liked at Aintree. We know he can stay and his Cl1 winning form is not bad at Newbury.
I am a huge fan of Cork All Star and think that Cheltenham form alone is worth a lot for the festival, but I am not sure that he will stay the extra distance, but I am open to persuasion on that.
I agree that Knockavilla could not have won more easily, but what did he really beat. Snap Tie was impressive and I think will be a lot shorter price on the day asssuming he continues to improve. Hobbs seems to think an awful lot of him and he is well bred so he must be on the short list.
I have also been looking at some bumper winners that are huge prices and might be anything and whilst I have no idea where these horses are heading I have come up with
Steady Tiger - Trainer says he is a good thing.
Diamond Harry who won the £35k bumper at Newbury, bred to stay, but has a lovely long stride and eats up the ground.
The horse i think may have an ouside chance in this runs tomorrow @ Fairyhouse 1:05
Woodbine Willie
The form of this horses wins have taken some big boosts over the past week or so and think he is one of the best in Ireland for this race a line thorugh Ellas Cavallo puts him right up there with Cuchulains Son who i think would of won the grade 1 but for falling last time _________________ Forest are Treemendous
I shall be keeping an eye on Sigma Digital, who's due to run at Limerick on Friday.
Noel Meade has been unusually quiet this year....no wonder horse to talk about, but he looks to have some good horses again, and this one looks a real battler.
I've had a sentimental punt on Lodge Lane. Had a birthday day out with some mates at Uttoxeter in January 07, this boy paid for our night out after so I'll stick with him to a £2 stake! Bit worried about what happened at Cheltenham earlier this year but hopefully he'll be fine (if he turns up) this year. _________________ I'm finding it hard to believe we're in heaven
I like two horses in this against the field and the first is Aranleigh, he has won over 2 and a half miles and is highly thought of, he is a classy animal and the way he stayed on in the Bumper at Cheltenham suggests he would want the trip.
My each way bet of the race is another horse that ran in the Bumper and stayed on up the hill very well and is bred to stay the Ballymore trip and that is Shirley Casper, she is a lovely looking mare with some size about her, she caught my eye the most out of the Bumper field in March. She has not run yet but look out for her, she would be my fancy for the Balllymore each way
Aranleigh
Shirley Casper e/w _________________ Great Endeavour- I rest my case which I presented in December. Plot landed.
not as good as some people think!! _________________ Tazbar = machine up north (wont be beaten over hurdles in scotland)
Aux Le Bahn = serious serious engine
Bible Lord = very well handicapped
I take it you never watched Aranleigh run a few days ago? If that gets anywhere near winning at cheltenham I will jump over the moon.
Tommythetipster wrote:
I like two horses in this against the field and the first is Aranleigh, he has won over 2 and a half miles and is highly thought of, he is a classy animal and the way he stayed on in the Bumper at Cheltenham suggests he would want the trip.
My each way bet of the race is another horse that ran in the Bumper and stayed on up the hill very well and is bred to stay the Ballymore trip and that is Shirley Casper, she is a lovely looking mare with some size about her, she caught my eye the most out of the Bumper field in March. She has not run yet but look out for her, she would be my fancy for the Balllymore each way
whatuthink is the only horse i have been impressed with so far, possible he could go for the 2 miler but judged on his hurdling debut and his bumper runs he does need 2 1/2 miles
i think conor o'dwyer rode a canny race at leopardstown and i am sure they will go for the long race especially on better ground
25/1 on betfair for the ballymore could be very good value _________________ Tazbar = machine up north (wont be beaten over hurdles in scotland)
Aux Le Bahn = serious serious engine
Bible Lord = very well handicapped
Surely Trafford Lad would be the leading Irish chance now? Conceded 7lb to Venalmar and was possibly a bit unlucky not to win. Still 20/1 which is a fair price. _________________ Please, call me Alex.
Surely Trafford Lad would be the leading Irish chance now? Conceded 7lb to Venalmar and was possibly a bit unlucky not to win. Still 20/1 which is a fair price.
I think all the front 3 are very decent and also that the Irish Novice hurdlers are alot better than the English ones this year
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