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[RightJudgeIam]

Thursday 17 June

Hamilton

4:35   Dorothy And Arthur Balding Stakes (Handicap) (Class 5) (3yo+,0-75)  £4,533.20   6f5y GOOD  

My first bet of the week comes in this relatively low grade and I believe there is a complete standout in the field of nine.

John Quinn has his string in tremendous form as we witnessed last weekend and he sends Grazeon Gold Blend here in top shape and off a great mark. Robert Winston, who rode Zommerlust to victory for the yard on Saturday, is in the plate. On his latest start the selection was just beaten in a Class 3 0-90 handicap at Pontefract and races off the same mark here. Dropped in grade he must be hard to beat if reproducing the effort.

There are however at least a couple in here that can put it to him. Westport from the Kevin Ryan yard is on a good mark and has a capable claimer taking off 7lbs which might prove decisive. Ann Stokell managed to get Steel City Boy to win despite being out of the handicap on his latest start and he can actually race off a 1lb lower mark even carrying a penalty. That form was however out of line with all his other turf efforts and I doubt he can repeat it, especially with the trainer in the saddle. Richard Fahey is always to be respected and his Optical Illusion won well latest. However, that was a very poor heat and he will have to step forward to win here.

Grazeon Gold Blend is sure to go very well here and I make him a confident bet

Recommended Bet

Back Grazeon Gold Blend 10 points win @ 11/4+ best morning price



Start Bank 100 points
Running Total 157 points


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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Nicely done in the end and am recording a 5/2 winner there as that was the SP...

start bank 100 points
running total  192 points

happy days
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Friday 18th July

Plenty of handicaps to look at today and I am starting with Hamilton:

8:00   John Smith's Scottish Stewards' Cup (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105)  £21,808.50   6f5y GOOD   16 declared

This is a typically tough looking good quality sprint with plenty of contenders. The first two home from last years' renewal Knot in Wood and Protector resume rivalry. Knot in Wood is a regular in these decent sprints and showed up well in the Wokingham and comes here off a 3lb higher mark than last year. He can certainly be expected to go well. Protector, however, is making his seasonal debut and in all probability is going to need it although there is always the possibility that he has been prepared particularly for this race. I'm not into guessing what condition a horse is in however and I have to dismiss him.

Zomerlust won really well at the weekend and is still on a feasible mark. However, he really needs genuinely heavy going to be at his best and the going is currently good.

Others such as Stevie Gee and Pawan have been running well too yet there is a really standout progressive horse in this field. Everymanforhimself from the powerful Kevin Ryan/Neil Callan combo is a highly progressive four year old and his profile tells me there is plenty more to come. He has only had four starts this season, progressing with each until winning over 5 furlongs latest. Only raised 2lbs for that win, well drawn in 6 and with the step back up to six furlongs sure to suit he looks set to run a huge race.

There are almost certainly going to be less than 16 starters so I am recommending that the place part of the bet should be with Betfair as we are guaranteed four places and frankly I will shocked if he isn't in the first four home.

Shortly afterwards at 8.50 Newmarket we have:

8:50   Young & Pure Beauty Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+,0-75)  £3,885.60   1m GOOD  20 declared

Vicky Haigh has her string in blistering form and Paraguay is a strong fancy here. A winner of 4 of his last six starts yet still 4lb lower than his lifetime high winning mark, he was unsuited by a slow gallop latest and will appreciate a stronger run race here. The form of his races is working out particularly well with one of the horses he beat going on to run an RPR some 14lbs higher on his next start.

To get us started earlier in the day I am having a bet at Newbury

4:10   TKP Surfacing John Chappell Memorial Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-70)  £2,590.40   5f34y GOOD  

Although there are 12 declared, really I can only consider two runners here. Equuleus Pictor is an out and out five furlong specialist and will appreciate any rain that falls and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off him. However, I consider Kelamon to be an exceptionally well handicapped horse off a mark of 69 despite it appearing that he prefers an extra furlong. With a 7lb claimer taking over from William Buick he is effectively on 62 and is going to be very hard to beat. Any rain that falls will be extremely welcome as he loves to get his toe in.

Blimey    I hope that wasn't too long ...anyway here goes

Recommended Bets

back EVERYMANFORHIMSELF 5 points win and place (on Betfair)

back PARAGUAY 5 points win

back Kelamon 10 points win

3 x 1.5 point ew doubles

1 x 2.5 point ew treble

Total stake = 39 points

start bank 100 points
running total 153 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Reviewing Fridays action, I have to say I'm a little disappointed as neither of the evenings runners made the frame despite being well backed... at least the maximum win bet went in again to keep the wolf from the door.

Absolutely no excuses for Paraguay and I will think more than twice before betting him again. However, Everymanforhimself clearly floundered in the rain softened ground and could have done with an all out gallop. He remains of considerable interest from his current mark especially at 6 furlongs on fast ground. The money lost on him is only lent.

Kelamon remains well handicapped and when he gets a six furlong race on rain softened ground he can win again.

start bank 100 points
running total 185.5 points

onwards...
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Saturday 19th July

The handicaps today are very tricky and I am leaving Newbury and Newmarket alone.

The race I am playing is:

4:35   Go Racing In Yorkshire Summer Festival Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+,0-85)  £6,938.80   1m GOOD  

This a wide open race which features several 'improvers' against some exposed familiar names and I am relying on method to whittle the field down (well that is what I always do but what I mean is there is no standout that all the others have to beat).

The favourite at the time of writing is the 3 year old Almoutaz from the Barry Hills yard who ran his best race when just touched off on his last start. However, he has been raised 3lb for that and is going to have to improve again to win here.

Rainbow Mirage has also been raised 4lbs for winning a moderate race at Nottingham and although unexposed at the trip I feel he has a lot to do off 83.

Hula Ballew has been raised a total of 8lbs this season to 77 and managed to win off 70 in class 5 company.He was earlier beaten over 7 lengths by Blue Spinnaker and on the same terms has it all to do. Blue Spinnaker himself runs off 83 and has been well beaten this season off 82 and 84.

Charlie Tipple remains 10lb higher than his only handicap win and actually got put up a pound for getting beat fair and square on his last start. The trainer must despair and I would be running him in claimers already.

Any of the 3 year olds at the bottom of the weights, Celtic Strand, Bere Davis (blinkered first time), Flight to Quality and Apollo Shark could step forward from what they have shown but they're of no interest to me.

This leaves me with just two old boys to consider and in fact they both have similar profiles and ideal conditions. My Paris, now trained by Ollie Pears, scrapes into this race after being dropped 6lbs in four runs this season and runs in a class 4 race for the first time in a very long time (over 4 years in fact). Last season he ran RPRs in excess of 100 three times and all in class 2 handicaps and on his seasonal debut in 2008 he ran 4th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup off 91 recording RPR 94. A reproduction of that kind of form in this grade off 85 would make him hard to beat... and he is currently 14.5 on Betfair. Interestingly, Tony Hamilton takes over in the saddle from the apprentice Andrew Mullen and I take that as a positive sign as he needs strong handling from the front.

Nevada Desert has also dropped to a low mark after some moderate efforts yet, at this time last year, he won off 84 and went close off 87 subsequently. Here off 76 he must have some chance and the likely strong pace will suit his style so I think he's worth a saver at around 9/1.

I'm hoping at least one of these old boys will recapture some of their old fire and see off the youngsters  

Recommended Bets

back MY PARIS 3 points win 5 points place at best morning price

back NEVADA DESERT 2 points win at best morning price

Start Bank 100 points
Running Total 175.5 points

Have a great weekend folks!!
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

I was slightly disappointed by the ride Tony Hamilton gave to My Paris today... he really needs to lead at a fast pace so I was not happy that he let Mickey Fenton on Celtic Strand set only steady fractions for fully 5 furlongs before taking it up. This was evidenced by the slow time and low Topspeed rating (winner awarded TS 62). The slow gallop also did not help Nevada Desert who really needs a strong gallop and tiring leaders to chase

anyway, despite the race not going to plan My Paris still made the frame and 14/1 was certainly a good price.

start bank 100 points

running total 193 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Monday 21st July

3:30   Giles Insurance Premier Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+,0-70)  £3,885.60   1m5f13y GOOD  

One of the horses we recently backed on this thread, Forrest Flyer, reappears here and off the same mark and as a C&D winner he is going to be hard to beat here especially if improving only slightly in a first time visor. Hopefully, in this smaller field, he will be allowed to set his own fractions and if given an easy lead he will be very hard to beat indeed.

Recommended Bet

back Forrest Flyer 10 points win @ best morning price



start bank 100 points
running total 183 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

I am planning a major punt on Wednesday but there is some confusion as to whether the horse is declared or not..

in any case, I was planning to post the selection in the morning after the prices become available so if you are interested please check in tomorrow
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Wednesday 23rd July

I am having my biggest bet of the season so far

8:45  Mole Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+,0-85) £6,476.00 1m6f GD-FM   8 declared

Several of the runners in this race come into it in really decent form and this is therefore a competitive heat and tactics may well have a bearing on the outcome.

Anyway let’s have a look at the contenders. Last time out winners Rajeh, Hawridge King and Salute are to be respected but those of you who know me well will know that I am always keen to take on those that have been raised for winning and won’t be surprised that I am dismissing these three from consideration.

Inchpast and Simba Sun don’t appear on recent evidence to be in any kind of form and therefore I am pretty confident that the winner comes from Trachonitis, Callisto Moon and Alonso de Guzman. Trachonitis won well two starts ago and was totally unsuited by a very slowly run race when behind Hawridge King at Salisbury. I expect him to reverse that form here and he is a strong contender. Callisto Moon ran an absolute cracker at Newbury over 2 miles on his latest start, without perhaps quite seeing out the trip, and he will surely also run very well. I am concerned that the going may be a little quick for him though.

All of these, however, are going to find it difficult to give weight to Alonso de Guzman who just 4 days ago produced a super effort in a similar race at Newmarket, when having a tremendous tussle with the winner and pulling 3 and a half lengths clear of the third, for which he was awarded RPR 76, and that was just his fourth start on turf. Kerrin McEvoy was in the saddle that day and he put up a pound overweight so the horse ran off 67. Tonight exciting young apprentice David Probert takes over in the saddle and the horse will race off 66 but with the 5lbs claimed by the jockey he will effectively be racing off a mark some 6lbs lower than last time. He is set to run off 70 in future handicaps so if both the RPR and Official Handicappers are correct he really is a handicap snip.

I must admit that when I first looked at the race on Monday night I thought Alonso de Guzman would be priced up aound the 13/8 mark and I would have been happy to bet him at 2/1 so I was pleasantly surprised to be able to get on at 7/2 and bigger.

Recommended Bet

Back Alonso de Guzman   20 points win at 3/1+ or best morning price

Start bank 100 points
Running total 163 points

It’s a long time to wait til 8.45pm ..let’s hope it’s worth it

I have taken 3/1 this morning
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Saturday 26th Ascot

The Totesport International Handicap

Recommended Bet

back LOVELACE 20 points win at best morning price NRNB on Thursday

I currently have 5 points at 6/1 in the Ante Post market and am getting the rest on in the morning...

write up to follow later on
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Well the 6/1 NRNB with Paddy POwer is a standout bet...anyone wanting to could bet Lovelace each way.

I will try to post my thoughts on the race tonight, bit busy trying to find one or two for Friday
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

So, Lovelace - what is there to say? Well plenty actually and if you've been reading the press there's plenty of people talking about him.

Of course, we are looking at a red-hot valuable handicap and mostly these are a minefield for punters so why have I had, and recommended, a really big bet?

I called this column 'The Handicap Snip' exactly because I spend a lot of time throughout the flat season looking for horses that have shown that they are capable of running much better than their current BHB mark would indicate and Lovelace certainly fulfils the definition. Even just looking at the bare facts of his recent form gives him an outstanding chance without delving any deeper.

Firstly, he runs of 105 including a 3lb penalty on Saturday yet is set to race off 109 in future handicaps so the Official Handicapper obviously thinks he's better than his mark. Would he be competitive off 109? Well, last time out he ran off 108 (including a 6lb penalty) in the Bunbury Cup where he went agonisingly close. Clearly off 105 he is weighted to run a very big race.

However, when you look a bit close at both his lifetime record and recent performances there are strong grounds to believe he can run even better. He has run 15 times on turf and has won 6 of those starts and that includes a Group 3, at 7 furlongs on good to firm, as a 3 year old. After that win he was being talked of as a possible Group 1 runner (Prix de la Foret was mentioned). He only raced twice more on turf as a 3yo, both times were on good to soft in the autumn, and after making excellent progress he may have been feeling the effects of a long season.

This season Lovelace started his campaign in March running twice in Listed company before taking a trip to run in a £200k race in the Far East. However, it was on his penultimate start in the Toteswinger Handicap that he started to show some really good form. He then followed that win with a cracking effort in the Bunbury. I particularly like the in running comments he earned in both those races:

awkward start, took keen hold, held up in about 11th, behind wall of rivals 2f out, good run through over 1f out and again entering final furlong, driven to lead last 150yds, ran on well

and

slowly into stride, still last well over 2f out, strong run final furlong, just failed

These comments indicate to me that he is capable of producing strong acceleration, even at the end of a strongly run race, and can pass rivals even in a short distance. He was awarded RPR 115 and 118 for those two efforts and, given his run style and the fact that his already a Group race winner, I strongly suspect that he remains capable of producing even higher rated form under the right circumstances. Indeed, I'm sure his trainer believes so too as he is entered up in a few Group races later in the season. I also note that the stable are just starting to fire after a poor early part of the season and that Jimmy Fortune, who won on him at Sandown, is back in the saddle.

There has been much debate about the draw and track bias on the straight course and I agree this is an unknown. However, I believe this horse has absolutely everything in his favour, is extremely well in at the weights, will get the race run to suit his run style and is highly likely to run even better than on his previous start. He has been heavily backed ante post and this is almost certainly the last time we will see him run in a handicap.

This is why I have made him my biggest bet of the flat season so far. All he has to do is go out and prove the theory correct  
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

As an appetiser to the main event on Saturday I'm having a bet at Ascot on Friday

5:05   Exclusive Hotels Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+,0-85)  £6,476.00   1m GD-FM  

Red Somerset is notoriously difficult to win with yet here off 80 he has a great chance against ome moderate opposition. The Johnston horse that won his maiden latest could be the biggest danger. However, a reproduction of his latest effort would make Red Somerset hard to beat here and I'm hopeful he can do it.

Recommended bet

back Red Somerset 7 points win at best morning price

start bank 100 points
running total 156 points

note there are 27 points in play with the 20 point win bet on Lovelace to come
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Red Somerset won nicely and I am recording a 5/2 winner which is what I took

start bank 100 points
running total 180.5 points

with 20 points exposed on Lovelace

cmom my son!!!  
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Shame about what happened to Lovelace but at least we get our stake back having waited til NRNB before getting on

Anyway on to the next opportunities which happily come round on Sunday 27th July

Firstly, I must mention Holbeck Ghyll in the 5 furlong handicap at Ascot. He is clearly in great form and has a good chance and I wouldnt put anyone off if they fancy him. I am not betting him for various reasons though.

2:15   Casino At The Empire Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105)  £31,155.00   1m4f GD-FM  

This is a really hot handicap that brings together several formlines. The race won by Sugar Ray at Royal Ascot has worked out particularly well and a few that ran in that reoppose.

Luberon won a good race at York and is still lower than his highest winning mark. However, he was allowed an easy lead that day and I'm convinced he wont get that here.

Anyway, cutting a long story short I'm sure Young Mick has run himself back into form. He was 4th in the Sugar Ray race and then was 2nd to Mad Rush when we backed that one. Young Mick races off 101 here and has proved in the past that he is competitive off similar marks. In particular his effort when just touched off in the Ebor a couple of years ago is some of the very best handicap form of recent years which was confirmed by Young Mick himself winning a Group 3 on his next start (over todays C&D) and Geordieland who was behind him going on to prove himself a high class stayer (twice 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup, Gr 1).

His last 4 victories have all come over this C&D and now that he is in form and on a good mark I'm sure he will run well. I'm confident he will reverse form with Sugar Ray on 9lb better terms and he is a confident bet to at least make the frame.


4:25   Skybet Supporting The Yorkshire Racing Festival Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+,0-90)  £9,346.50   6f GD-FM  

Grazeon Gold Blend did us a favour the other day and now he has got his head in front I see no reason to desert him . The stable remains in good form, he is proven over the C&D and on the going. Off 78 today he remains well handicapped compared the best of his 3yo form (ran 4 RPRs of 90+ off 87) and he can improve again.

He will need to though as Wyatt Earp from the Fahey stable is also tremendously well handicapped on last seasons form. He was well behind GGB over C&D two starts ago but bolted in subsequently at Redcar. If he continues his progression he will be hard to beat and it may be worth having a saver on him.

Recommended Bets

back Young Mick 5 points each way (win and place on Betfair for 4 places)

back Grazeon Gold Blend 5 points ew at 4/1+ or best morning price

back Wyatt Earp to win 10 points at best morning price

Start Bank 100 points
Running Total 180.5 points (with Wyatt Earp bet to deduct)
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RJI