forum.sports-pro.co.uk

[RightJudgeIam]

With the Cheltenham Festival over and spring on the way, I turn my attention to betting on flat handicaps. In particular, I will be focussing on handicaps for the older horses as these are entirely more predictable than those involving three year olds and younger.

I'm starting this today because there are two races at Kempton on Tuesday that I have got my teeth into.

4.00 6 furlong Class 3 0-95 £6.5k 8 runners declared

This race features some in form sprinters and despite only a small field they will be betting 7/2+ the field. In order to find a bet in a race like this I always look to eliminate those that are unlikely to get their head in front.

First to be eliminated for me is Ajigolo. He runs consistently well but has been beaten several times off his current mark and will need to do something special here to win. Closely followed by Benllech who has climbed 20lbs or so over the winter. Tony James is a classy sort but is unlikely to be in top form first time up and is dismissed

Baby Strange is downgraded after being well beaten on two tries in Listed Grade and it would take a brave man to back him now.

This leaves us with a shortlist consisting of Financial Times, Distinctly Game, Crystal Gazer and Fromsong. Of these, the filly Crystal Gazer can go well but is taking on the males this time and this will be harder. She can certainly get in the frame. Financial Times is 5lbs above his highest winning mark and would need a personal best to score.

In the end, the two most likely winners are Distinctly Game (unbeaten at the track) and Fromsong who despite being 10 years old is running as well as ever lately and he is the selection.

Just two years ago this horse was going close in Class 2 AW handicaps off marks in the high 90s and recording RPRs of 103+ consistently. Today he runs off just 87 and has been running fast of late finishing first or second on his last 4 starts.

5.00 11 furlongs class 4 0-85 £4k

Lisathedaddy just sneaks into this race after being dropped 2lbs to the ceiling mark. Having run 3 times this season in Lingfield handicaps worth £9k to the winner over 10 furlongs (including when only 2.5 lengths behind Winter Derby favourite and runner up Silver Pivotal), this drop in class and step up in trip can see her return to the winners enclosure for the first time since the 17th March 2007 which incidently was in a class 4 AW handicap off just 2lb lower.

Recommended Bets (1 to 10 points)

Back Fromsong win market  2 points @ 5.3+

Back Fromsong place market 4 points @ 1.9+

Back Lisathedaddy win market 3 points @ 5.0+


EDIT: at 12.30 GMT Fromsong 6.8 win 2.18 place market
                            Lisathedaddy 5.6 win market


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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

I have selected Lochsong's Saturday Competition Handicap for my first proper turf handicap bet of the season. Those of you who know me of old will recall that I love these handicaps for the older horses (especially the Class 4 to Class 2 level) as the runners are incredibly consistent.

3.05 Doncaster 5 furlong class 2 £10k 14 runners

My starting point, in looking for a bet in a race like this, is always to eliminate those I condider unlikely to be able to win, on the balance of things, from their BHA mark.

Firstly, I will eliminate Came Back who is prominent in the betting based on a tremendous run of for on the all weather which has seen him rise to a mark of 90. The fact remains that he has only run once on turf and he finished last. For me it would take a great leap of faith to believe that he can transfer that form into this race off this mark. For similar reasons I am also discounting Canadian Danehill who is very progressive yet faces a huge task off 95 in this and would need to run like a Group 3 horse to win.

Next I am taking out Elhamri, Green Park, Bigalos Bandit, King of Swords and Malapropism all of whom seem too high and are likely to find a few better treated today.

Good old Fantasy Believer is a ten year old now and is making his first start of the season. Although he is well weighted compared to previous form he was unable to win in 2007 and may want an extra furlong.

Dandy Nicholls Northern Fling was a progressive 3yo last season and may well be capable of making much further progress as a 4yo. A mark of 96 is plenty stiff enough on balance however and I will be watching today as he makes his comeback after 204 days off.

Mark Wallace is gaining a reputation for landing a touch and the booking of Jamie Spencer is certainly eye catching for Chief Editor. Very lightly raced, he could have plenty more to give but on balance I couldn't be risking a bet on him at this stage although I will be checking the market.

Out of 14 horses this process leaves me with a shortlist of:

Bond City
Cape Royal
Matsunosuke
River Falcon

Of these River Falcon makes least appeal to me as he remains above his lifetime highest winning mark and at 8 years old I think that will prove too difficult to overcome.

The other three that make the shortlist are all closely matched on several pieces of form and any of them could win and at the prices it may be worth considering backing all of them. However, even in a field of 14 the draw may have an effect and with Matsunosuke drawn in 5 I will leave him alone.

Bond City is drawn in 14 and has often run well fresh. There is no doubt that he is well handicapped on a mark of 94 (went close off 102 in 2007, two handicap wins off 99 and 96). He has a clear chance despite his poor strike rate (just three wins).

Cape Royal is an amazingly consistent five furlong sprinter which is clear if you look at his record in races and his handicap marks. In the last 3 seasons he has run 38 times off marks of 91 and higher in 5 furlong handicaps, making the frame 9 times without managing to win. In the same period he has run 10 times of marks of 90 and lower and has managed to win 4 times and finish second another twice. He was only unplaced when making his seasonal debut, in 2005, and when drawn on the wrong side at Goodwood (but he won the race on his side). Two of his four handicap wins came in the month of April too off today's mark of 90. He has already had his seasonal debut on the all weather so should be ready to go today, is well drawn for a front runner and is a course and distance winner. Let's just say I expect him to go close!

Start Bank  100 points
Running Total 90 points

Recommended bets:

Cape Royal  3 points win  5 points place

Bond City  2 points win

Running total 80 points

I will post up the prices as I get them.

Have a great saturday folks!
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Saturday 19th April

4.30 Newbury 2m Class 4 2 miles gd-sf £6,476 12 runners

This race features 5 runners that are entered in the Chester Cup and they are Aureate, Sadlers Kingdom, Aphorism, Mickmackmagoogle and Winged D'Argent. In an average year a BHB mark of 80 to 83 will be necessary to get into the race and only Aureate looks certain to get in off his mark of 85. It would be easy to get into a guessing game in this situation as to the plans of the various trainers however I'm not getting involved in that and will adopt my usual approach.

I am dismissing these runners as badly handicapped, non-winners or out of form: Flame Creek, Inchloch, Plane Painter, Winged D'Argent and Fascinatin Rhythm. I really would be surprides if any of these were capable of winning this race against some less exposed rivals. I am also including Ned Ludd on the dismiss list but I note that he produced two efforts off slightly higher marks in the spring of 2007 and were he to reproduce that form he would go close. However, he is a 5 year old maiden on the flat and I expect him to remain so.

So, that leaves me with 6 runners to consider at this point and I usually attempt to find good reasons to eliminate further from here. Stoop to Conquer will be well suited by trip, track and going but remains on a mark that he's been beaten off several times and I couldn't back him. Mickmackmagoogle improved significantly over hurdles in the winter and could transfer that ability to the flat. However, he definitely prefers a sound surface and with the going expected to soften I have to pass him over. He remains one to keep on the right side of when the going dries out.

This leaves with these to consider as potential winners:

Aureate
Sadler's Kingdom
Legenderry
Aphorism

Of these I am least keen on the topweighted Aureate who got put up a pound for getting beat 2.5 lengths on his latest start and may struggle to give the weight away.

Jane Chapple-Hyam and John Egan are a formidable combination and Legenderry has been in fine form during the winter on the all-weather. I will certainly be watching for a strong market move for this one that could be significant however he is on a mark some 19lb higher than his last winning mark on this return to turf and it remains to be seen how effective he will be.

The two to concentrate on therefore are the Fanshawe/Spencer combo with Aphorism and the Fahey trained 4 year old Sadlers Kingdom and I think there is more than a fair chance that the winner will come from one of these two.

Given the connections, Aphorism is sure to be popular and could start a short priced favourite. A very lightly raced 5 year old mare from a good staying family it is surely significant that she is kept in training and resumes on a mark of just 73. Given the trainers record with improving older horses it would be no surprise to see her climb through the ratings this year.

Sadlers Kingdom progressed from an initial mark (after 3 runs on the all weather) of 55 to a good win off 79 when recording an RPR of 96 over 1 mile 5 furlongs as a 3 year old. He resumes here off just 82 and with the normal progress from 3 to 4 that you would expect he could be very well handicapped indeed. He is stepping up in trip here and I will trust his trainer that this is what he needs. Having already won on soft going any softening of the going, as expected, will be welcome. I am sure the Fahey yard wouldn't bring him to Newbury without the intention of having a go (they could find a race up north if they wanted) so with all this in mind Sadler's Kingdom is a confident selection to run a big race.

Recommended bet

Back Sadlers Kingdom 7 points win at best morning prices

Start Bank 100 points
Running total 73 points

I will probably also back Aphorism to break even or better at a minimum price of 7/2 or no bet. Update once the prices are out.

Have a great weekend folks

Edit: Best price this morning 4/1 with VC Bet and 7/2 in a few places. I was up til 4.40am and managed to get a nice few quid on at 6.4-5.8 on Betfair.

I am not placing any savers at this point, will be waiting for market moves nearer the off before deciding on that
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Saturday 26th

Sadlers Kingdom runs again at Ripon in the 3.40 and this week he runs off just 80. He is currently over 8/1 on Betfair and the comments I made last week still apply. He has ran an RPR of 96 so could be really well in still and having backed him last week I must back him again.

Recommended bet

back Sadlers Kingdom 5 points ew @ 7/1+

start bank 100 points
running total 70 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Friday 9th April

1.45 Chester class 2     £13.2k  7.5 furlongs 12 runners

I was immediately attracted to this race because of the presence of Extraterrestrial, who won on his last start and carries a penalty, as he is sure to be very short.

Without trawling through a lot of form, I have come up with a shortlist of 3 contenders to take on the favourite with:

Joseph Henry
Dhaular Dhar
Regal Parade

Joseph Henry ran a blinder when second to Geojimali at Doncaster and has run at this track before. He doesn't have a great win record but is clearly in rude health and he looks sure to run a big race from stall 3.

Stablemate Regal Parade ran second in the Thirsk Hunt Cup behind Extraterrestrial and he is weighted to reverse the form.

Dhaular Dhar won this same race last year off a higher mark but came into it in better form than this year. He still rates a danger to all although he may prefer slower going.

Recommended bets

back Joseph Henry 6 points win @ 5/1+
back Regal Parade 2 points win @ 6/1+
back Dhaular Dhar 2 points win @ 4/1 +

Obviously luck in running is crucial around Chester and I hope Joseph Henry gets his share. Nevertheless, covering stakes with the other 2 selections gives an excellent chance of returning the stakes

start bank 100 points
running total 60 points
_________________
RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Saturday 17th May!!!! Getting ahead of myself lol

3.35 Newmarket 1 mile 6 furlong class 2 £24k 11 run

Henry Cecils Ajaan is sure to be a red hot favourite here, especially with Silver Suitor having won since after being 3rd in Ajaans race, but there are grounds to take him on. He was involved in a barging match with the runner up and is clearly not a straightforward conveyance. He will very probably appreciate the extra 2 furlongs, possesses a potent turn of foot and will love the going.

So why do I want to take him on? Well, Mark Thompkins 4 year old mare Four Miracles who I made note of when the most unlucky loser on her seasonal debut a week ago. Trapped in a pocket with nowhere to go just as the winner got first run she fairly flew home with minimum assistance. That was over todays trip of 14 furlongs so she is sure to stay. The question I ask myself is: is she good enough? Well, trainer Mark Thompkins must think so because there are plenty of races he could go for with her current mark of 76, so he must have a good reason to come here. I really believe she is extremely well handicapped and at the likely prices I simply must have a big bet on her today.

I expect her to travel very well through the race, which I hope will be truly run so that she gets the chance to show how well handicapped she is, and just hope she is able to quicken at the end in this higher grade.

Recommended Bet

Back Four Miracles 6 points win 4 points place

Start Bank 100 points
Running Total 50 points

will update prices when I get them and may adjust stakes according to the price (basically if it's a really big price I will increase the stakes)

EDIT TO ADD: at 10.50pm on Friday the price is 10.5. I have nicked bits and pieces at 12 and 11.5. Currently 3rd in the betting.

Ajaan is 3.6 to back and I must admit I thought he would go off shorter than that and I wouldnt put anyone off a bet on him for a saver
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Friday 23 rd May

4.40 Newmarket Class 3 £7,741 gd-fm 10 runners declared

This is a fascinating race and it revolves around Punjabi who runs in a flat handicap at a mile and a half off a mark of 75 or something. Given his (National Hunt) stables' fantastic record in flat races, and his superb season in top class hurdle races, he is sure to be extremely popular. He could very well be thrown in here and make a mockery of his rating but I'm sure the price will reflect that.

Hopefully, all this will mean that there will be a decent price available about Richard Hannons' Prince Sabaah who despite getting beaten just a 'nose' in a £9k handicap at York (and pulling 6 lengths clear from the third) can race of a mark a pound lower on 82. Seeing he was awarded an RPR of 94 for that effort he clearly has it in him to run way above his mark.

Interestingly he has only raced 3 times in his on fast ground and he has been second beaten a length or less on each occasion in decent handicaps. If he is anywhere around 4/1+ tomorrow I will be getting as much on each way as I can bear and will then bet the place to make a profit.

Incidently, I say interesting because I am of the strong opinion that his sire, Spectrum, produces top of the ground performers and Prince Sabaah has been kept mostly to good or softer for the most part of his career. Whether he has been kept away from fast ground deliberately for some reason I couldn't say but it is clear to me that his best 3 lifetime efforts have all come on fast ground and I am expecting him to produce his best ever performance tomorrow. The Hannon/Hughes combo continues to fire in winners left right and centre which is a nice confidence booster.

Of the others, Luca Cumani runs Mad Rush who has been off the track since running a solid second in a handicap 331 days ago. Only having had 4 lifetime starts there is no doubt more to come in due to course but if he is to win he will need to be razor sharp against such strong and race honed rivals. The trainer is however a master and I wouldn't put it past him to have this one ready although he would need to virtually need to be a Group horse to win and that is unlikely.

So, I am really looking forward to this race for more than one reason as explained above and am very confident that Prince Sabaah will run a huge race to at least return our stakes.

Recommended Bet

back Prince Sabaah 8 points ew @ 4/1 +

back Prince Sabaah tbp to win 5 points at 1.7+

Start bank 100 points
running total 34 points (minus place only bet to be decided later)


EDIT: well I have nicked 1 point at average odds of 9.8 in the win so far and is now 8.8 to back for small. Punjabi is trading at 2.68 (13/ and Mad Rush at 4.0 which seems skinny. So looks like we are going to get a very nice price in the morning
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Been a while since I had a major punt on a handicap and tomorrow is the day for the next.

2.50 York 9 furlongs class 4 19 declared

Goodbye Mr Bond has his third run of the season in this 0-80 race and it quite sometime since he was even eligible to run in such a low grade race. On his third start of 2007 he won a handicap off 85, recording RPR 89, before being beaten a quarter of a length at Newmarket off 89 (RPR 93). On his next start off 93 he ran to RPR 96 in a class 2 race worth £30k+.

Two runs will have put him spot on for tomorrows race, he is patently extremely well handicapped, is well drawn, will love the going and is a course and distance winner. Quite simply this represents an outstanding opportunity for him and it is inconceivable that he wont reach the first four

Therefore, I will betting him 10 points win and to win the 10 points in the place market on Betfair

Recommended bet

back Goodbye Mr Bond 10 points win @ 4/1+
back Goodbye Mr Bond to win 10 points in the place
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Well I am pleased tha t I have managed to put a decent winner on the board and am recording a profit of 70 points on the race

so

start bank 100 points
running total 104 points

will be looking for another major bet in the near future
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

[RightJudgeIam]

Flush with success from the Goodbye Mr Bond gamble, I am going back in again in another race over the same course and distance on Saturday and at the same time!

2.50 York Saturday 14th June

Cadogan Silver Salver Stakes Handicap Class 2 £17k 14 run 9f gd-fm

The favourite and Spotlight Verdict pick is the Michael Stoute trained 3yo Tanweer and I must admit I'm guessing a bit by taking him on as he has never run over such a distance and in fact has only run 3 times in his life.He could well be thrown in here off a mark of 92 but looking at his form there is nothing to indicate that he really might be a Group horse in a handicap. his position in the market is a reflection of his connections and the fact he faces a lot of exposed runners that are either out of form or on the downgrade.

However, take him on I will and with good reason. James Bethell has got Granston in top condition and at the same time on a mark he is clearly competitive off. Indeed he is only one pound higher than a win earlier this season and a full 3lb lower than his highest winning mark and that's not all. On his latest start, Granston ran extremely well to be beaten only a length and a half at this course despite being badly hampered and losing his place. He loves fast ground and a strong gallop so everything looks in place for another big run and I am very confident that he will go close.

I was initially interested in Zero Tolerance who is undoubtedly well handicapped and ran extremely well latest. However, a few things put me off him such as his clear preference for a bit of juice in the ground and that he was well drawn when running well at Beverley last time and may not reproduce the effort. A market move may be significant and I will be watching closely.

Overall, I expect a big run from my selection and as he is trading currently at 6/1 I feel I can hit him quite hard in the place to cover a moderate win bet in the expectaton that if the favourite does turn out to be a blot then at least I will win a bit anyway, all being well (and if the fav flops we have a great chance of a decent win )

Recommended Bet

back Granston 2 points win market at 6/1+
back Granston 5 points place market

Start bank 100 points
running total 97 points (after todays bet)



edited to add: Granston actually ran second in this race off a pound higher mark beaten only a head in 2006 when it was won by....


Goodbye Mr Bond!!
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Saturday 21st June

Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Class 2 £37k 12f firm 19 run

This race is all about the Luca Cumani trained Mad Rush who ran so well to press Punjabi all the way to the line at Newmarket on his seasonal debut. He has been raised to 97 for that effort but that can reasonably be thought of as a still lenient mark as RPR rates the form as 109+. As Punjabi came out and won off his revised mark the form looks strong. The question is : do you want to back any horse in a handicap with 19 runners at the current price of 11/4? To answer this we need to check out the opposition.

Pevensey won this race and landed a gamble last year off 90 and returns for another crack off 95. He should find something to beat him off that mark and is passed over. There are a few seemingly unexposed types which might be capable of running. Stoute's Sugar Ray may well be able to reverse form with Pevensey and Marcus Tregonings' Ezdiyaad has won two races with authority (and been raised to a mark of 100 for them).

There are several exposed types that could win if they got the perfect trip or recovered earlier form such as Young Mick, who loves the track, Night Crescendo and others. None of these appeals as being particularly well in here.

So, I pretty much already rate Mad Rush as a Group horse and with no standout opposition I am prepared to plunge as if he is indeed as good as I think he will skate in here. He really looks a Handicap Snip.

Interestingly, I laid the other apparent handicap 'good thing' of the week, Bankable, mainly because his high rating had been achieved in a non handicap race on soft. This time the apparent good thing achieved his rating in a handicap, over the same trip on fast ground and I believe the rating to be significant.

Recommended Bet

Back Mad Rush 10 points win @ 5/2+

Start Bank 100 points
Running Total 95 points after todays bet

ps I will probably have more than 10 points on myself but 10 points is the maximum for this column
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

I have been reviewing the race and it struck me that Amanda Perretts' Camps Bay has to be considered seriously. He ran in that controversial race with Ajaan and Silver Suitor at Newmarket where there was all sorts of interference in running and has not been on the track since.

The winner Ajaan has since bolted up off ahigher mark and the third Silver Suitor won on his next start. Unfortunately Camps Bay was raised 6lb for that effort and that makes it tough for him. However, at the price 16/1 he has to be worth a small saver and a bit in the place with 4 places


recommended bet

back Camps Bay 1 point win @ 14/1 +
back Camps bay 4 points place

running total 90 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

Unfortunately Mad Rush just failed by a neck to catch Sugar Ray who was given a super ride by Ryan Moore. Anyway, keep an eye out for Mad Rush as he is sure to continue to run well and a move up in grade looks likely as he will be rated over 100 after going close off 97.

In the meantime, I have spent a fair amount of time studying this race:

Wednesday 25th June Carlisle

3.50 Carlisle Bell Handicap Class 4 7f 200y 17 run soft £19.4k

This is a valuable race for the grade and sure to be very competitive. Plenty of good northern yards are represented and even David Elsworth has a runner.

I was first drawn to the race by the presence of Nevada Desert who ran third behind Goodbye Mr Bond when we backed him at York the other Friday. It seemed to me that the form might turn out to be strong as GMB was undoubtedly very well handicapped on a mark of 80 and proved it by running well next time out off 86 in higher grade to improve his RPR by 4lbs compared to York.

Nevada Desert is himself well handicapped compared to his form in 2007. In fact, he is 7lb lower than when winning in July last year when recording an RPR of 92. Following that win, he spent the rest of last season running off marks in the mid-80s in class 2 and 3 handicaps with his best run coming at Haydock when 3rd to Zaahid off 86. In todays' race he runs off 77 and importantly has the soft ground which suits him well. The only possible negative is the widest draw in 17 as they often come across to the stands side on softer going at Carlisle.

So what of the opposition? Well, certainly Michael Dods Osteopathic Remedy is improving rapidly, having won his last two starts, and has a good draw in one. He could be well backed tomorrow and most certainly can win so I wouldn't put any off betting him if they fancy it.

Vicious Warrior, a stablemate of Nevada Desert, is a 9 yo now but has also come down in the weights. He is bound to be a big price yet could go well if the going were really testing. Tim Easterby runs Countdown and Observatory Star, the latter being the more consistent, and the former better handicapped and proven on soft. It is hard to split the pair.

Overall, however, I have to trust the method and take a chance that the draw will not be insurmountable and back the horse with good recent form (that has been franked), running off a mark I know he is more than capable of winning from and at 12/1 with 4 places I am more than willing to have a decent bet on Nevada Desert

Hoping the GMB form does indeed turn out to be strong

Recommended Bet

back Nevada Desert 4 points win @ 12/1
back Nevada Desert 6 points place

nb I may well place 2 points win Osteopathic Remedy if 5/1 is available as a cover bet

start bank 100 points
running total 80 points
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RJI

[RightJudgeIam]

well folks it was a bit of a shame...I fully expected Osteopathic Remedy to be a well backed favourite and to go off at 5/1 or less. If I had known he was going to drift (I was getting on at 12 on BF just before the off) then I would have put him up as the selection. I hope at least someone may have had a bet on him.

We live to fight another day
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RJI