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SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
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RightJudgeIam
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IGNORE ME


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Last edited by RightJudgeIam on Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Paddydeman
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just don't see how he is good enough to win this.   First time up he impressively kicked clear from a slowly run race and then last time at Kempton jumped badly, and then only managed to beat Pierrot Lunaire by 1 3/4 lengths.   Paul Nicholls has gone on record as saying Pierrot Lunaire isn't good enough for the triumph, so I would expect that Nicholls thinks his Triumph horse Celestial Halo is much much better than Pierrot Lunaire and therefore much better than Binocular as well.   Sentry Duty easily beat Celestial Halo at Doncaster so is there any reason that Binocular should finish in front of Sentry Duty, never mind a lot of the other very very good horses in the race?
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RightJudgeIam wrote:
Binocular slashed across the board...spent all morning getting on at 10s where I could and now is a general 7s ...still 9s with Paddy Power

just the McCoy factor or are there people like me piling in all over the country?


I got on at 14s this morning, couldn't believe the price, AP given the ride is such a big indicator to his chances. His form/ratings don't look too bad as well  

I'm just waiting for the stato's to come on here and tell me the last time a 4yo won the supreme  

bet365, bluesq, paddypower are going 4 places on this race if that's any help for some e/w thieves !!!
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RightJudgeIam wrote:
Binocular slashed across the board...spent all morning getting on at 10s where I could and now is a general 7s ...still 9s with Paddy Power

just the McCoy factor or are there people like me piling in all over the country?


Nicky Henderson was being Interviewed on RUK earlier on a Cheltenham preview and he was being asked about his Supreme Hurdle hopes and he said Khyber Kim if back to his best which he thinks he is that is his best hope, he said Binnocular may end up going for it but that will only be on request from JP otherwise he would be going for the Triumph on a normal year he also said there was not much between Sentry Duty & Zebra Crossing
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Paddydeman
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

theGoingStick wrote:


I'm just waiting for the stato's to come on here and tell me the last time a 4yo won the supreme  



Hors la loi III wasnt it?
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RightJudgeIam
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

equally Catch Me is 10s across the board and shortening for the Champion..you could ask 'how come he's so short?'

the simple answer is he's been backed...ask LUFC about that...

but on paper he cant win
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm certainly concerned about McCoy's absence from CCB - strange as all year the word has been that they really fancy. And then at the last minute Binocular gets switched to the race and AP is aboard - I smell some kind of rat but not sure what is going on really!
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really worry for Muirhead backers must be that he has never raced left handed and nver on a track with such a stiff finsh therefore i will be goin e/e on CAS at 10/1
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Paddydeman wrote:
theGoingStick wrote:


I'm just waiting for the stato's to come on here and tell me the last time a 4yo won the supreme  



Hors la loi III wasnt it?


Had to look it up to double check    Hors la loi was the last, the one before then was in 1973. But stats are there to be broken as we all know  
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RightJudgeIam wrote:
Binocular slashed across the board...spent all morning getting on at 10s where I could and now is a general 7s ...still 9s with Paddy Power

just the McCoy factor or are there people like me piling in all over the country?


Where have you got this information from? Wherever it is you should stop using it! Loads of firms (at least 6 or 7) still show 10/1 for Binocular and he is 7/1 with Boylesports but no one else is that short.
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RightJudgeIam
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yes fair enough ...still 10s folks
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Owl of Minerva wrote:
RightJudgeIam wrote:
Binocular slashed across the board...spent all morning getting on at 10s where I could and now is a general 7s ...still 9s with Paddy Power

just the McCoy factor or are there people like me piling in all over the country?


Where have you got this information from? Wherever it is you should stop using it! Loads of firms (at least 6 or 7) still show 10/1 for Binocular and he is 7/1 with Boylesports but no one else is that short.


He was best priced 14/1 this morning now he's best priced 10/1 and even shorter on betfair 19/2, it's got to be the AP factor !!!

According to this supreme market about half the field have realistic chances of winning it  
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jayfle
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really cannot make my mind up between Muirhead and CAS!! Muirhead's on the course and Meade's cheltenham form really worry me but i think he is the most progressive whereas CAS has great chelteham form but the jumping is a really worry.
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jayfle wrote:
I really cannot make my mind up between Muirhead and CAS!! Muirhead's on the course and Meade's cheltenham form really worry me but i think he is the most progressive whereas CAS has great chelteham form but the jumping is a really worry.


rather than do one E/W split the money and do both to win
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes i could do that but am starting to slightly prefer CAS now. Muirhead fills the stats more but Barry Geraghty is very bullish about his chances on CAS.


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