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He has been aimed at the race with a view to running in the welsh national after- he has definitly improved since Tony took him. I thought his quote yesterday was a classic "he is 50/50 to go". LOL 50/50 my arse!!!! He was always going!!!
People always associated TM with ok horses that he gets well handicapped but i tell you give this man the ammo and he can do the business with the good uns too.
Im not mad confident as i know the class he is up against but at the odds it will give me a good buzz.
Right, i've been looking at this race for a few days now. Denman is clearly the best horse in the race and accordingly has the 11-12 burden. The weight itself wouldn't be too much of a worry, as the horse is built like a tank, but it's the concession onf 9lbs+ to all runners (presuming Monkerhostin doesn't line up) that is concerning. Add in the fact connections have stated that he is difficult to get fit and I think he's up against it tomorrow. However, I don't know if i'm brave enough to back against him.
Looking down the list I can't see another horse that stands out as a better win-only bet so I have backed Dream Alliance @25s e/w. He ticks a lot of the boxes regarding the stats and this has clearly been the plan for some time. I was a little concerned by the lack of a prep-run but 4 horses from the last 10 winners were first time out that season, including another Hobbs horse in What's Up Boys. I think he has a better chance than the 25-1 would indicate and i'm hopeful of a big run tomorrow. Apparently his owners have backed him for 2009 GC glory, so if he's going to be that good he should run a big race in this.
Outside that the one horse I may yet back is Snowy Morning. A reproduction of his RSA run must see him go close. He's got AP on board as well which is a plus. Interestingly W. Mullins has only had a handful of runners in this over the last few years and they've all made the frame. I think both Alexander Banquet and Hedgehunter were placed and Be My Royal was 1st past the post. Snowy Morning clearly warrants respect here.
Andy - Completely agree and think Dream Alliance is a very shrews EW punt, especially with the liklihood of more rain tonight. Although i tipped up Denman on another thread, his price went to 7-2 before i could back him but if he is 4/1 on course then i will probably back him Each Way as I can't see him out the top 4 but there could be one or two down the handicap with a stone in hand and it would be highly unlikely he would be able to run a 175+ but anything is possible.
Dream Alliance EW at 25/1 is my only bet at the moment with Abragante and/or Denman other horses that i may back. Tricky call.
Can I just mention one right at the bottom as a lively place outsider, and that's BIBLE LORD
Thise of you with long memories not affected by drink will recall I mentioned this horse at the Mudlark meet and he will be carrying a bit of the geordie cash tomorrow.
Winner of 2 novice events on heavy and good to soft at Kempton [hammered Il Duce] and Lingfield ast season [after making his chasing debut in a pretty decent event at Kempton] he is a progressive sort, last race he carried top weight in a class 3 and looked like he blew up,
so on the basis that he will come on for that he might go well tomorrow off a low weight, the ground won't be a problem for him, and a place is far from off the cards.
Im now on 3 horses in this race....he is rated 30 behind denman on the official ratings [according to the RP, never entirely reliable] and gets 26 pounds.
he also carries entries in the IG handicap on saturday and the Grundon handicap on sunday so they clearly want to get a run into him'; if he lines up in either of those he could well win _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
Richard Johnson misses the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup meeting at Newbury after breaking bones in his foot following a fall at Uttoxeter.
He sustained the injury in a tumble from Mister Potter at the 10th fence in the Cornwallis Co (NW) Beginners' Chase on Thursday.
As well as being forced to give up four rides at the Berkshire track today, he was due to partner Dream Alliance for Philip Hobbs in tomorrow's big race.
"I don't really know how long I'm going to be out for," Johnson said.
"I'm going to see someone again next week when they'll have more of an idea and I need to speak to Dr Turner (chief medical adviser) and go from there.
"These things do happen. I just hope to be back very soon and hopefully I won't miss too much in the meantime."
Location: Cheltenham (5 min walk from Prestbury Park)
Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 3:06 pm Post subject:
I'm stuck at work so didn't see the race but the Denman performance sounds awesome.
Well done to all those that tipped up Dream Alliance. I probably would not have backed it e/w if it weren't for all the positive vibes coming from this thread so cheers guys & girls
Yeah Dream Alliance gave me a great run for my money and would have been a clear winner if it wasn't for a machine. That was a scarcely believable performance by Denman.
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