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Monday, Monday (Can’t trust that day) but we can trust the ongoing activities of this thread as the safest way known to fill the bookie’s satchel.
Today takes us to sunny HEREFORD for a 6 race card. One thing you can guarantee about Hereford, which is that come 3rd round FA cup day, every year, without fail, every sodding season without sodding fail, we will see Ronnie Sodding Radford score that sodding goal in the hideous sodding mud and the sodding pitch invasion that follows. But I am not bitter, I’m bitter-sweet.
A right handed galloping track with tight bends, almost a square, really. You don’t want a big striding horse trying to come round the last bend and make a move; they will fall out too wide…. Nippy little front runners here.
A good honest place, Hereford, no posh end or any such nonsense. Soft, good to soft in places and as we have a bit of sunshine over the UK today and as it is dry (hooray) I think it might be drying out by this afternoon.
2.30 And the first race is far from easy for the eager punter. 3miles 2f novice handicap hurdle, 13 runners. A few years ago flowonlovelyriver was tipped for good things he won 2 bumpers in early 2006 but has only raced 6 times in the 4 years since taking his chance in the champion bumper that season. He came back in a hurdle at Southwell last month after over a year off and not surprisingly needed the race, but if fit he could get a place at rewarding odds. Another e/w prospect is SOMERSET ROSE who has shown little so far but was improved last time out, is well treated on handicap debut and could now be getting the hang of things. Tentative selection.
3.00 17 runner 2m3f handicap chase. Last time out winner (over hurdles) Putney Bridge will appreciate the drop in trip, but looks to be being asked a lot off second-top weight but the reduced journey will also suit ABBEY DORE right at the foot of the handicap, who has been weakening in longer races, will appreciate a slightly less boggy surface and has another 7 pounds off his back thanks to the claimer. Definite e/w prospects here.
3.30 7 runners for a 2m3f novice chase but this looks like a 3 horse race with recife de thaix, awesome george and COOL FRIEND at the head of things, preference being for the last named on the back of a really consistent set of results (1st or 2nd in each of last 7 outings) including last 2 efforts when second both times to Carole’s Friend – last time out might well have won but for an error at the last.
4.00 10 runners for the 2m1 handicap hurdle which has the highly appropriately named “Nothing’s Easy” at the head of the handicap. It certainly isn’t today; but there’s a little lurker at the foot of the handicap in the form of MISTER POUS from Nick Williams yard; he is a consistent sort, is well treated here, and is another good looking e/w bet.
4.30 2m1f maiden hurdle. Gus MAcrae will be odds on but the e/w pick is MR SYNTAX, who might even upset the hotpot. Tim FtzGerald isn’t the trainer his late dad was but he has a decent sort here and was within 5 lengths of quantitative easing at Newcastle on an earlier effort. Of course his near namesake Doctor Syntax (who has a pub named after him in Prudhoe, just west of Newcastle) who won the Preston Gold Cup 7 times and the Richmond and Lancaster Gold cups 5 times each he also sired BEESWING who was considered the best mare of her 9and perhaps any other) generation. She raced 63 times winning 51 of those races and finishing 2nd in 6 others; after winning 4 Doncaster cups, 6 Newcastle gold cups and the ascot gold cup in 1842 she retired to stand as a brood mare and gave birth to 2 classic winners (Nunnykirk who won the 2000 guineas and Newminster who won the St Leger and was himself top sire in 1859 and 1863. The beeswing stakes in Newcastle is a race named in her honour and indeed a village in Dumfries and Galloway changed its name to Beeswing in her honour (formerly called Lochend, on the A711 heading out of Dumfries toward Dalbeattie. A lovely part of the world)
I hope you enjoyed that little excursion
5.00 last race of the day and a bumper with 9 of the 16 having run before and 2 of them (in Close, an easy winner in a bog at Limerick and Fairview Sue who won a mares race on the sand at Southwell when they held a national hunt meeting there in the bad weather) having picked up a winners position already. Romulus D’Artaix looks the hot favourite after a very good second at Cheltenham in a race which looks solid, but AP McCoy rides debutant FISH OUT OF WATER who is a son of Old Vic and is an eye-catching runner.
6 races to kick the month off, and 2 history lessons (one football, one racing)…. Even if we can’t find a winner we can pass on some knowledge.
_________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
Tuesday. In the past it always used to be Sedgefield on a Tuesday, now it seems it’s always CATTERICK.
After another little nibble at the deficit yesterday we are looking for anther positive return from the North Yorkshire track, where the usually competitive nature of the racing brings out decent crowds. Another lovely sunny morning in the North, long may it continue. Soft, good to soft in places is the official going but it will be drying out as we speak and certainly will be better ground than many of today’s participants will have encountered of late
2.00 2m3f handicap hurdle for lady amateur riders. Tricky to say the least. 9 go to post and at the bottom of the handicap heap is night boat to cairo, who along with samizdat will probably be at the head of the market. However an e/w nibble might pay rewards if we go with SKIPPING CHAPEL who was patchy over fences and looked far happier back over timber when last time out at Newcastle. This is a poor enough race and he can make the frame at least here.
2.30 14 runners for a handicap hurdle over 3m1 (take out 2) and this is a very competitive race; a lot of these come from yards where you want to see some money going down before making an investment of your own, but as don’t have that privilege I will trust to the possibility that these will run to form and fancy another e/w dart on ESME RIDES A GAIN whose fitness I am taking on trust as she has been off the course since July when she followed up a nice enough win at Hexham with a weakening effort at Cartmel. That was the run of a horse who needed a break and she ha had one and is certainly good enough at the weights to be in amongst them today.
3.00 8 runner 2 mile handicap chase. DESPERATE DEX is likely favourite and ought to collect here, with Drever Route a danger. Ferdy’s horse profited from a faller on Boxing Day at Huntingdon but might have won anyway and was a cosy enough winner next and last time out at Sedgefield. He still gets 17 pounds from drever route and might well have more improvement in him so it will pay to stick on his side for now at least.
3.30 16 runner novice hurdle and a bit of a shut your eyes and hope job for the punter. I can see 3 at the head of affairs in twentynine black; caerlaverock and good old thyme but COUNTY COLOURS may well get among them at a decent price and is a tentative e/w pick. There are some absolute rags in this and there is just bound to be a fiddle horse among them. Kris Kin Line at 25/1 or bigger could be an e.w steal for Donald McCain
4.00 6 runner beginners chase over 3m1 and the two market leaders (classic cut and blue shark) both have U next to their names from last time out and in both cases it was one or more jumping errors en route that led to blunders, rather than pilot error. It’s hard to know whether to trust them but in a small field like this it is a risk to take anything at bog odds to upset the apple-cart. He answer may be WATERLOO ROAD who has been off the track for 15 months but was a smart enough youngster coming second in his bumper and winning a decent enough race at Newcastle over timber. Waited with, has the master trainer got him fit? I expect he has and if his jumping is better than the leading contenders (which may not be hard) he could pop in here.
4.30 2 mile novice handicap hurdle. Despite their status a few of these look pretty exposed and it may pay to stick with an improving / consistent sort. PRIORY JO has been in the first 4 on 4 out of her last 5 efforts and has been 1st and 3rd under Dennis O’Reagan who rides again today. A clear e/w prospect and possibly better than that she is a much rejuvenated horse now she is in martin todhunter’s care.
5.00 12 runner bumper for conditionals and amateurs, and my eye is caught by SWEETABOUTME who was last out on the track in November 2008 as a 3 year old, when she ran well for a while before weakening a couple of furlongs from home. She has been patiently waited with by James Moffat and now as a 5 year old should be stronger and fitter. Let’s hope she can land an e/w reward in the last. Johnson’s newcomer Kensix Star is worth a look too
Fingers crossed folks; this looks a very trappy day
_________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
I have been swamped out with work today (roll on Cheltenham week and the opportunity to get stuck in to some quality holiday and horse racing time!!)
So I have time to post brief thoughts today about FOLKSTONE where there are 7 races and on this tight right-handed track it pays to be nippy rather than a big long striding sort.
Heavy, soft in places; I am greatly enjoying a third day without rain here, hope that it is dry and sunny with you too!
2.10 12 runner maiden hurdle over 2m1+. FOXTROT CHARLIE can get e/w punters off to a good start after a promising enough 4th last time out (second has subsequently been placed in a much higher class). (by the way have you noticed that when the policemen in “early doors” leave the grapes their radios always go “foxtrot, alpha, romeo tango”??) Tequila Bob will be likely favourite and I would be interested to see how Kokkolika gets on in this company
2.40 and 5 go to post for this mares novice hurdle over 2 ˝ miles. Obviously the board’s choice will be Jenny’s Gold but I have preference for SHE’S ON THE CASE. Both of them are ex bumper winners and the selection is preferred simply on the basis of the ground as she has shown she can handle a soft surface well enough and her last two efforts (staying on second in both races) suggests a win is on the way.
3.10 2 mile handicap chase which looked set up for the e/w punter until no6 pulled out leaving just 7 going to post.. Of course when it is down to two on the shortlist I will pick the wrong one but I am bypassing Wiesenfurst in favour of BALLYMORN from Hen Knight, as he won well in a bog at Towcester, handles the conditions and will be pleased to drop back to 2 miles after running well enough but just not getting home last time out over further.
3.40 2m6f handicap hurdle which is a really competitive looking race. There’s a case to be made for all or each of the 8 remaining runners but an old friend of this thread CANNI THINKAAR who will be the double stakes e/w nap of the day.
4.10 why are there so many Nationals? Every blooming course now has a long distance handicap, often of some history and with a name we all know which has become a national. This is the “Kent National” (like that isn’t a contradiction in terms…. and has 10 going to post for the 3miles 7f. When you think of the very tight bends here it is as different to Aintree in April and the sort of race that the Grand National is to make a folly of the naming process. Anyway, let’s see who we can rule out and I am inclined to do that to any horse carrying more than 11 stone round here today. That leaves 7 (1,2,4 all go, 3 just sneaks in thanks to the claimer). One of those remaining is Topless who clearly likes the course and came second in this race 2 years ago albeit on much better ground . Im ruling her out because of the ground (his form on heavy is poor) and also ruling out the Gangerman on form ground. Noble Billy and Dune Raider will find this trip beyond them, which leaves Shaka’s Pearl and YA I KNOW with preference for the latter as the won in this grade and on heavy last time out at Bangor (3m6). An e/w punt .
4.40 8 left in (6 and 9 out) for a 2m5 maiden hunters chase and with 8 runners and a short priced favourite in Penny Doc there is some e/w value to be had. Im going for HIGH TOBY who wo last time out in a point and may well get amongst the principals here at nice odds.
5.10 just 6 in the bumper. Tim Vaughan has brought BENS MOOR over and he makes his racecourse debut after a winning point in Ireland, but WELL REFRESHED has run in 2 similar events and his 3rd last time out on heavy ground at Wincanton should stand him in good stead (waited with after a weak effort 12 months previously, patience may well be rewarded here)
Hard day today, nothing really standing out but fingers crossed.
running total a disapointing -31.77 _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
another mixed day witha little profit to celebrate
one odds-on winner but the nap wins at 9/2
in the lat I managed to pick two without specifying a selection and capitalised them both so I am just making that 2 bets which means a total outlay of 9 points and a return of 11.55 so +2.55 on the day and a balance of -29.22 _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
will be in an all day meeting today so have had a v quick look at Taunton and
2.20 2m7 beginners chase i wil take EARTH PLANET for the nicholls/Walsh team over biggest danger Vodka brook, but it is a close call
2.50 7 runner novice hurdle where if VOROMAR TWO does not win there will be a stewards...
3.20 2 mile handicap chase and a chance for a little e/w nibbl in the form of LOCAL PRESENT who can be forgiven an ofut of sorts effort last time out
3.50 2m3 novice hurdle which is all about what odds PISTOLET NOOIR will go off at. NAP.
4.20 hunter cahse and MUSTANGSALLYRALLY ought to be good enough here - dutch billl might be a good e/w call
4.50 2 mile novice hurdle whcich will be the most competitive race of teh day by the look of it; I am taking WHISTLEJAQUET to get the better of Kings legacy
no frippery today, no time! _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
-2.88 yesterday, -32.1 overall after one winner and an e/w place yesterday. What was going on in the first? Nicholls and Walsh, when I tip them they lose when I don’t they win. What’s going on?
Friday, Newbury to try and get this deficit down. A nice looking 6 race card which may be a nice end to the week for punters, one or two “shoo-ins” allegedly….
2.10 A 5 runner novice hurdle which looks like a penalty kick for ROUGHAM now that Henderson has withdrawn super Kenny. Not much else to say except we expect to start with a winner here, albeit at very skinny odds.
2.45 2mile 5f novice hurdle where the market leader is likely to be chef junior from Nicky Henderson. A short odds favourite for his bumper he was beaten in to 4h on the sand at southwell. But how much we can read into that I don’t know. Moleskin is a half decent sort but is penalised out of this in my opinion, and I am taking an e/w nibble on BALLYEGAN who won a point at Dromahane last time out and now appears under rules for the first time.
3.20 6 runner handicap chase over 2 miles and as long as MISTER QUASIMODO runs to the form he showed last time he should pick up back to back wins. He has been raised 7 for that easy win and this field looks no better than that one so the extra shouldn’t stop him, particularly as the claimer takes it straight off.
3.55 novice handicap chase over 2m6 with all of the 5 going to post with a chance. One of the lesser lights is KING JACK who bounced back after two pulled-up efforts to win last time out on sticky ground like this and staying on over a 2f shorter trip. I think he could spring a minor surprise here in a race where sound stage and buffalo bob will be vying for favouritism and of the two I prefer the later as he will definitely see the trip out.
4.30 10 runer handicap hurdle over 2m5 and I am rather taken by WILLIES WAY right at the foot of the list with nick Schofield on board. Returning after a little break he won 4 out of his last 6 and was 2nd in one more; he should be fit enough and can land a nice e/w touch here.
5.05 a hunters chase. Now I don’t know much about these but see that at the time of writing the board hunter chase experts are silent on this one. On the basis of form I will take GENTLE GEORGE who won last time out 8 days ago and who must be after qualification for the festival or Aintree (was second the day before his win) and may warrant an e/w pick _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
just a quick point of interest - i reckon that had the bets on this thread been placed on Betfair rather than industry SP, there is every chance you might be close to break even.
i know it's not the point of the thread and frankly being only 30 points behind taking this approach is nothing short of brilliant, but just thought i would mention it as i was thinking about it.
just a quick point of interest - i reckon that had the bets on this thread been placed on Betfair rather than industry SP, there is every chance you might be close to break even.
i know it's not the point of the thread and frankly being only 30 points behind taking this approach is nothing short of brilliant, but just thought i would mention it as i was thinking about it.
AJ
that's kind AJ
I suspect the price differentials would make a big difference to position versus par, but Im hopeful I can turn this into a + before the end of the line!!
Been there before, one good week is all it takes _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
2 winners and a non runner -0.55 on the day sadly, still sliding down slowly but hope springs eternal; 32.65 the deficit, Im giving myself until the end of the festival to make it up as a target. _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
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