[Owl of Minerva]

Nacarat won well last year and is favorite to win again, which is fair enough as his mark looks quite feasible. 6/1 is short enough though.

The one I like at the prices is Kilcrea Castle @ 20/1. Ran a good race when 3rd behind The Sawyer since. The first 3 pulled miles clear of the rest and The Swayer has won again since so it looks like solid form. That was KC's first run for a while and he travelled like the winner for a long way at Ascot. If he improves for that run then I think he has leading claims in this.

[Sandown_Stan]

This from Emma Lavelle's website:

"It has been a really good couple of weeks for the horses and I have run some really nice youngsters as well as some interesting new recruits and some notable improvers. Kilcrea Castle looks a smart prospect - his run at Ascot when 3rd just behind The Sawyer was franked again by the latter winning at Cheltenham. He will go to either Wincanton or Kempton next and depending on the outcome of that we will decide about the Grand National. He is a brilliant jumper and I think that the step up in trip from Ascot will help. He is only 8 and I think he has a really bright future. He was trained in Ireland by Jack's father Pat and is most definitely the apple of his eye - I can understand why!"

[Owl of Minerva]

[Owl of Minerva]

Bit annoyed I didn't put more on Kilcrea Castle @ 20/1 now but have topped up with some of the remaining 12/1. Only 2 firms offer that now. Proper gamble today.

1pt E/W @ 20/1 + 1pt E/W @ 12/1

The more I look at the race the more winnable it looks. Really not a lot of interesting horses in there. Nacarat has a chance but is priced accordingly. Fistral Beach has very little experience and also looks short. Possol will go well but will probably be outpaced again like last year, and is rated higher this time. Not much else after these.

[Tommythetipster]

This is proper money for KC.

Does anyone know who is behind this gamble? Do you reckon its a stable gamble or a tipping line?

I quite like Oedipe for this at 16/1, course winner, back on a winnable mark, something like 8 pounds lower than when he ran in this 12 months ago. Henderson not in flying form but still knocking the winners in. Ran a very promising trial from a 333 day break at Sandown in fourth behind Monkerhostin last time. I thought this horse could be something very decent when he won at the track as a 4 year old on Boxing Day but he has not scaled those heights, he has been slowly slipping down the handicap and is on a winnable mark of 136.

T

[Owl of Minerva]

[BurntFingers]

[Owl of Minerva]

Yes Ruby can do 10st I believe

[Owl of Minerva]

[SkankyMinga]

I have entered the market with small stakes on stats pick Miss Mitch @ 10/1.

Two really good runs this season on soft ground and The Sawyer has given us a massive form boost this weekend. Will probably top up once we go NRNB.

[Cath_EVN]

Hugh Taylor has put up Kilcrea Castle as ante post e/w for Grand National today.  says could be no bet if runs badly on Saturday but quotes him at 50-1 for GN.

[Swagger]

I'm not overly interested in the jumps at the moment but I think Atouchbetweenacara is the potential improver in the field off a mark of 147. He ran much, much better than his form suggests last time out and the step up in trip should suit. 14/1 looks a good price.

Regards.

[Machiavellian]

Miss Mitch out

[Owl of Minerva]

[Swagger]

I have also backed Madison Du Berlais at 8/1. Class horse in the race, conditions will suit, my concern is his last two runs looked very hard races which may have taken their toll. If not, and the blinkers work first time, surely he will be there or thereabouts.
For me it's between the class horse in the race, Madison Du Berlais, and the potentially improving, well handicapped horse, who I have subjectively identified as Atouchbetweennacara.
Owl and others have some cracking antepost bets, good luck with those and everyone else.

Regards.

[Andy]

If Kilcrea Castle is as good as people are saying he is he should probably win this or go close at the very least, especially as Miss Mitch doesn't run.  The presence of Madison and Nacarat make the handicap a bit top heavy and there are some very exposed horses in there.  He's getting about 20lbs from the top weight and only giving 6lb to the bottom, so if he does see out 3m on soft ground he looks the one to beat.  Well done Owl for getting on at 20s.

Not sure about Atouchbetweenacara.  He was one of 3 horses (Stan and Flintoff being the others) that moved from Venetia Williams to Tim Vaughan during the summer.  After all disappointing for Vaughan they are now back with Venetia and Atouchbetweenacara is going to be the first of the 3 to run since moving back.  Might be best watched as you don't know how they weil fair after moving about and switching between different trainer's methods.

I've been looking for a decent betting opportunity but outside the top two in the market and top two in the weights it looks a bit of a muddle.  With there only being three places on offer I might not have a bet but if I do it will probably be on Oedipe.  His last run at Sandown was his best in a while and he's 6lbs lower in the race this year.  He looks to be the one most lilkely to get in amongst the top 4 in the market.

[lenahan]

What a truely horrid price Fistral Beach is. Thing is i want to back him. Personally cant have him out the frame and think he is the most likely winner. Up in trip should be fine, Soft ground will suit, unexposed moving forward, low low racing weight probably getting more than he should imo. Champion trainer jockey combo. Big pointer that Ruby is doing the low weight for this? And hence the price   Hope he drifts a couple of points.

[lochsong]

Statbusting race.
Given the likely ground I’ve narrowed my ‘stat’ selections down to these 3
Razor Royale – NTD – 0-0-6 ......20/1
Piraya – D Pipe – 0-0-5......16/1
Oedipe – N Henderson – 2004 Marlborough (only one not 1st lto in last 10 yrs).....14/1
All have won at least a cl2 race.
All have form on soft ground.
I’m going to buck the trends and back Piraya e/w in the hope that David can emulate his father’s feat 10 yrs ago with the youngster Gloria Victis who had also won lto.
Might have a saver on the Henderson horse.
Average price for this race in the last 10 yrs is 6/1

[LongJ0n]

I'd have this between the top two.

[Owl of Minerva]

[alansouthcoast]

I think that this will rest between last years winner Nacarat and Madison Du Berlais. Nacarat finished behind MDB in the King George and at the revised weights there is only half a length between them. I take MDB to finish in front of Nacarat again. I think Fistral Beach needs to improve a lot to figure in this, despite bottom weight and Ruby on board.

[Hampton]

Surely Madison Du Berlais can beat this lot even under top weight. He's run in races way above this & is proven that a flat track like Kempton suits him better. He's a nice price due to the Nicholls/Wash factor on Fistal Beach but I can see him winning this in a race where it's not unusal for a horse to win carrying alot of weight.

[Owl of Minerva]

Kilcrea Castle 1pt E/W @ 20/1 + 1pt E/W @ 12/1 (1/4-1,2,3,4)
Miss Mitch 1pt E/W @ 25/1 + 1pt E/W @ 8/1 (1/4-1,2,3,4) - LOST  
Private Be 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (1/4-1,2,3)

Still think KC @ 9/2+ is a good bet as I think he is much the likeliest winner but I'm not going in again. I also have him as my main Grand National bet @ 50/1 so a win today would be very welcome.

[lochsong]

wrong thread

[Danum Dancer]

Gone for a real long shot in old Ollie Magern got 100-1 E/W last night he was 5th off 154 in this last year beaten ~ 13L and is now rated 143 , 16lb better off with Nacarat for 13L, he could run well again off this mark and place at a massive price.

[theGoingStick]

[lochsong]

[Cath_EVN]

gutsy effort by Nacarat, could have done with him getting back up for my 10 to follow!

[theGoingStick]

[Cath_EVN]

[Rochesterlad]

[theGoingStick]