Hampton
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Racing: 4/3/10Saddlers Bend was withdrawn at Wolverhampton yesterday before racing started & is down to run this evening.
The horse has won his last two races having been brought over from Ireland.
The horse is now subject to an investigation over running at 'Flapping' tracks in Ireland. The trainer has said there is nothing in it but they are also looking into another one of his horses who may also of run in 'Flapping' races in Ireland under another name.
I believe that under the rules horses who are been investigated are not alllowed to race while it's in progress, so Saddlers Bend may not run after all today either.
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Hampton
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Not been the best week so far & hoping for better luck today! 
Ludlow:
Moghaayer - 2.30 This race looks suitable for this one under the Henderson/BG combo. Hucking Hill & AP are in it too but that has a penalty for it's win last week which pushes me to Moghaayer.
Pickamus - 3.00 Likes to bowl along in it's races & with Good ground forcast for Ludlow he could set this up for himself nicely.
Galoshes - 3.30 Maybe a tad unlucky last time & this looks a suitable race on decent ground today.
Kilcrea Asla - 4.10 Ran well in at Sandown the other week on going softer than it likes. Todays better going will help.
Lord Crewe - 4.30 Has some decent form & that should be good enough here.
Taunton:
Katalak - 3.20 I'm taking a chance with this one & it may prefer better ground than it will get today but it has been drying out at Taunton over the last few days.
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LongJ0n
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I agree with you on Kilcrea Asla mate. Dropped 7lb from his last run which puts him back on the 123 he ran with when comfortably winning this race last year. Sam Thomas is on board this year but that's no issue and at 11/2 looks a great each way bet to nothing.
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accajacca
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A good few interesting runners on the Southwell card today and a few that I would have bet if they weren't facing each other, but it all looks a bit competitive even at this low grade, so I have only come up with two that I think are worth a bet - both in the same race, the 3.10.
Love Delta has won 3 times since being dropped back to 6f and from Timeform's comments has shown the pace to suggest 5f will pose no problems. In strong winning form, which I like, and bigger than the forecast price (which seemed fair enough) so I will have a bet in the win market.
Boogie Waltzer hasn't done a lot wrong recently winning two from three and earning a solid place last time out. No reason to think a place is out of the question in this, and at 2/1 it's probably worth finding out for sure.
3.10 Southwell
Love Delta - £25 WIN @ 3.3 (matched)
Boogie Waltzer - £25 PLACE @ 3.0 (waiting)
Will put £50 lays up on both @ 1.23 when the time comes.
Good luck today
AJ
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bencar
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Agree that Southwell catches the eye today AJ...
2.40 – word for T Tate’s runner – Golden Tiger - disapointing at 4/5 last time but apparently no problems and big run expected.
4.40 – Miss Christophene – horse won the opening race on the corresponding card last year and after being denied last time I don't see anything to fear in this field.
Good Luck all
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chippy1722
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Re: Racing: 4/3/10 | Hampton wrote: | Saddlers Bend was withdrawn at Wolverhampton yesterday before racing started & is down to run this evening.
The horse has won his last two races having been brought over from Ireland.
The horse is now subject to an investigation over running at 'Flapping' tracks in Ireland. The trainer has said there is nothing in it but they are also looking into another one of his horses who may also of run in 'Flapping' races in Ireland under another name.
I believe that under the rules horses who are been investigated are not alllowed to race while it's in progress, so Saddlers Bend may not run after all today either. |
He had a horse a few months back MONDEGO which came back after a 2 year lay off and was gambled from 9/1 to 15/8 and won 2 on the bounce, I think that is being investigated too. I'd never heard of flapping until this happened.
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accajacca
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| accajacca wrote: | A good few interesting runners on the Southwell card today and a few that I would have bet if they weren't facing each other, but it all looks a bit competitive even at this low grade, so I have only come up with two that I think are worth a bet - both in the same race, the 3.10.
Love Delta has won 3 times since being dropped back to 6f and from Timeform's comments has shown the pace to suggest 5f will pose no problems. In strong winning form, which I like, and bigger than the forecast price (which seemed fair enough) so I will have a bet in the win market.
Boogie Waltzer hasn't done a lot wrong recently winning two from three and earning a solid place last time out. No reason to think a place is out of the question in this, and at 2/1 it's probably worth finding out for sure.
3.10 Southwell
Love Delta - £25 WIN @ 3.3 (matched)
Boogie Waltzer - £25 PLACE @ 3.0 (waiting)
Will put £50 lays up on both @ 1.23 when the time comes.
Good luck today
AJ |
this always grates me. both bets matched, then a runner gets withdrawn - both of my prices are correctly reduced - and then both drift massively - so i now have awful prices and could be on now bigger than before the withdrawal 
might go in again on both if they carry on drifting...
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Hosed
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Blades Harmony has dragged me 'onto the sand' today, eye catching last run, kept in maiden company today, trainer with few runners on the AW but few winners too........
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Gorg_George
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The last 4 races at Meydan are all corkers. Some really good, exciting horses on show there today.
4-50
Skysurfers is an improving horse but you have to take the only 2 pieces of form he has with a pinch of salt. Forgotten Voice finished his race fetchingly last time out over course and distance and Isn't drawn too badly today.
5-35
The one question mark against Purple Moon is whether he's fit and raring to go. He's shown he doesn't mind travelling in the past and his form in this is world class. I think he could go close if 75% wound up, so will be taking the 6/1 with BlueSq.
6-10
In what looks a very open race I am going to chance small stakes with Debussy and Mr Brock
6-45
I thought Alexandros and Presvis would be priced up at around 15/8 - 5/2 in this one and think the 9/2 with Ladbrokes is definitely worth taking.
4-50 3.5 pts Forgotten Voice @ 9/2 (365)
5-35 3.5 pts Purple Moon @ 6/1 (BlueSq)
6-10 1pt e/w Mr Brock @ 10/1 (365)
6-10 0.75pts e/w Debussy @ 20/1 (365)
6-45 3.5 pts Presvis @ 9/2 (Lads)
1pt e/w treble FV, PM, PVS.
It's worth noting Bet365 are going 1/4 odds on all races from Meydan today and I believe they are the only bookies doing so.
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Hampton
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Not a good start for me at Ludlow.... 
Not a good start to anyone who has put Walsh & Nicholls in multi bets either too, at Taunton.
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LongJ0n
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| Hampton wrote: | Not a good start for me at Ludlow....
Not a good start to anyone who has put Walsh & Nicholls in multi bets either too, at Taunton. |
*Puts hands up*. Flipping done for my doubles and trebles for the day!
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LongJ0n
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| Gorg_George wrote: | | 5-35 3.5 pts Purple Moon @ 6/1 (BlueSq) |
Non-runner
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accajacca
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have laid voromar two £100 win @ 1.19 and £100 place @ 1.08.
he is a novice and has a series of hurdles to jump over.
you don't have to be right very often to win laying these prices after all...
£27 Bet.
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accajacca
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| accajacca wrote: | have laid voromar two £100 win @ 1.19 and £100 place @ 1.08.
he is a novice and has a series of hurdles to jump over.
you don't have to be right very often to win laying these prices after all...
£27 Bet. |
incidentally, backs up in running @ 5.0 as i have promised myself i will start doing on my lays...
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accajacca
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did it nicely to be fair but i don't think you can go far wrong laying novice hurdlers carrying penalties @ 1/5 however bad the race looks. tried his best to make a mess of the last for me but he was just too good 
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Gorg_George
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| LongJ0n wrote: | | Gorg_George wrote: | | 5-35 3.5 pts Purple Moon @ 6/1 (BlueSq) |
Non-runner |
Re-invested in 1.75pts e/w Perfect Stride @ 12/1 (365)
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accajacca
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| accajacca wrote: | A good few interesting runners on the Southwell card today and a few that I would have bet if they weren't facing each other, but it all looks a bit competitive even at this low grade, so I have only come up with two that I think are worth a bet - both in the same race, the 3.10.
Love Delta has won 3 times since being dropped back to 6f and from Timeform's comments has shown the pace to suggest 5f will pose no problems. In strong winning form, which I like, and bigger than the forecast price (which seemed fair enough) so I will have a bet in the win market.
Boogie Waltzer hasn't done a lot wrong recently winning two from three and earning a solid place last time out. No reason to think a place is out of the question in this, and at 2/1 it's probably worth finding out for sure.
3.10 Southwell
Love Delta - £25 WIN @ 3.3 (matched)
Boogie Waltzer - £25 PLACE @ 3.0 (waiting)
Will put £50 lays up on both @ 1.23 when the time comes.
Good luck today
AJ |
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lenahan
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| Gorg_George wrote: | The last 4 races at Meydan are all corkers. Some really good, exciting horses on show there today.
4-50
Skysurfers is an improving horse but you have to take the only 2 pieces of form he has with a pinch of salt. Forgotten Voice finished his race fetchingly last time out over course and distance and Isn't drawn too badly today.
5-35
The one question mark against Purple Moon is whether he's fit and raring to go. He's shown he doesn't mind travelling in the past and his form in this is world class. I think he could go close if 75% wound up, so will be taking the 6/1 with BlueSq.
6-10
In what looks a very open race I am going to chance small stakes with Debussy and Mr Brock
6-45
I thought Alexandros and Presvis would be priced up at around 15/8 - 5/2 in this one and think the 9/2 with Ladbrokes is definitely worth taking.
4-50 3.5 pts Forgotten Voice @ 9/2 (365)
5-35 3.5 pts Purple Moon @ 6/1 (BlueSq)
6-10 1pt e/w Mr Brock @ 10/1 (365)
6-10 0.75pts e/w Debussy @ 20/1 (365)
6-45 3.5 pts Presvis @ 9/2 (Lads)
1pt e/w treble FV, PM, PVS.
It's worth noting Bet365 are going 1/4 odds on all races from Meydan today and I believe they are the only bookies doing so. |
As GG says a good card at Meydan and some good races. I think there are some good bets to be had. Godolphin will get at least a couple of winners i would have thought. They have horses in a few races where it looks to be a match or penalty kick:
In the 415pm WarArtist whilst looking the one to beat looks very short at even money. There are one or two who could finish in front of him and the most likely is Mutheeb imo. This one should at least hit the frame given no hard luck in running and at 13/2 is an each way bet.
In the 450pm for me its between the top 2 in the market Skysurfers & Forgotton voice plus a high priced local runner Al Arab. I actually think Skysurfers could win this quite easily and can understand the short price. Al Arab at 20/1 rates a great each way bet though imo.
In the 535pm i think Anmar is another solid godolphin favourite for the day at 3/1. Will be tough to beat being one of few improvers in the field when good enough already. Shouldnt be out the frame. Solid win chance. Fair enough to back each way at the price.
The 610pm is the days best race: A 10F G2 with some quality animals lining up. Cavalrayman and Vodka head the market at around the 4/1 mark but both are making there seasonal debuts against some other good performers who have the benefit of a run. This is too short a trip for the Godolphin horse (cavalrayman) ideally and he will struggle to win against this lot first time up. He is an each way price but is no bet imo. Vodka hanst gone well in dubai in the past btu this is a new surface so it could be a fresh start for her. If either of the market leaders win it is likely to be her given she has ran more recently and this trip is ideal for her. However the play in this race has to be with Glorio De Campeno at 6/1. This horse is always bigger priced than he should be. Is match fit after a recent spin and at an ideal trip. He looks place banker material and given the issues with the other two i see him as the one to beat. Be strange should he not place and he has a great win chance so a cracking each way bet at 6/1.
In the 1845pm im with GG here. THis looks a match between alexandros and presvis. I actually think alexandros will win but i couldnt bet him at even money. This is slighty short trip for presivis but he is on the inside and given the gap he has enough class over alexandros to get the job done assuming he is ridden to win which i think he will be today after a recent spin. At 9/2 he shouldnt be out of the places and is probably still the one to beat. He has his job cut out to beat alexandros. As i said i dont think he will BUT he is the bet and the value play
Anmar and Gloria De Campeno look the best bets on the card to me. Im going to try and come up with some small combinations from all the above to see if i can hit a payout from a few going in or hitting the frame.
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LongJ0n
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| accajacca wrote: | | accajacca wrote: | A good few interesting runners on the Southwell card today and a few that I would have bet if they weren't facing each other, but it all looks a bit competitive even at this low grade, so I have only come up with two that I think are worth a bet - both in the same race, the 3.10.
Love Delta has won 3 times since being dropped back to 6f and from Timeform's comments has shown the pace to suggest 5f will pose no problems. In strong winning form, which I like, and bigger than the forecast price (which seemed fair enough) so I will have a bet in the win market.
Boogie Waltzer hasn't done a lot wrong recently winning two from three and earning a solid place last time out. No reason to think a place is out of the question in this, and at 2/1 it's probably worth finding out for sure.
3.10 Southwell
Love Delta - £25 WIN @ 3.3 (matched)
Boogie Waltzer - £25 PLACE @ 3.0 (waiting)
Will put £50 lays up on both @ 1.23 when the time comes.
Good luck today
AJ |
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Good effort that.
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lenahan
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Cat Junior winning over a mile well well well.
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FallonFacta
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I've been dodging Meydan - but can't resist Presvis with Ryan Moore back
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The_Pilgarlic
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| accajacca wrote: | | did it nicely to be fair but i don't think you can go far wrong laying novice hurdlers carrying penalties @ 1/5 however bad the race looks |
You have to be taking the pi55 or fishing?
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lenahan
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Whoa Lahaleeb having her first run in Dubai. Didnt notice her in the field. She goes on this surface. Trip ideal. She has got to be backed each way...30/1 on betfair...She should be right in the mix here...huge price ?
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lenahan
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| lenahan wrote: | | Whoa Lahaleeb having her first run in Dubai. Didnt notice her in the field. She goes on this surface. Trip ideal. She has got to be backed each way...30/1 on betfair...She should be right in the mix here...huge price ? |
oops thought it was on the poly not the turf. thatll teach me. Still good opening gambit for her. One to keep an eye out for when she next runs here.
Nicely done by presvis. Was indeed a big price when you consider the quality of opposition he has faced in other races over the last year and the prices he has gone off at.
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FallonFacta
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| FallonFacta wrote: | | I've been dodging Meydan - but can't resist Presvis with Ryan Moore back |
Rotten start and I thought he'd got stuck but very nicely done
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Swagger
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I am a huge fan of DEMONSTRATIVE and highlighted him as a horse to follow on the turf this season. But even though he will improve for the Step up in trip, he doesn't like tight tracks (hated Chester and doesn't like Wolverhampton even though he has won there before). He may still prove too good but KINKY AFRO is a massive price and is a progressive filly. 11/2 Win bet for me in the 7.20 Wolverhampton.
Regards.
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Gorg_George
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Nicely played Lenahan and FF, he was certainly too big a price for reasons stated in this thread. I thought Ryan had blown it after missing the start and not hurrying him up to be closer to the pace. He quickened like a real good horse and should go on to better things at the carnival. He got me out of trouble today. Nice touch on the F/c AJ. Was very disappointed with Forgotten Voice. Mr Brock and Debussy both ran sound races. I really thought Mr Brock had it coming off the bend but just couldn't quicken significantly. I thought Gloria De Campeao had it for you with about 100 yards to go Len but that Japanese horse flew from out the clouds! With Presvis winning and Mr Brock getting a place the day went from disastrous to ever so slightly ahead, not too bad after the disaster of the first few races.
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Gorg_George
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| Swagger wrote: | I am a huge fan of DEMONSTRATIVE and highlighted him as a horse to follow on the turf this season. But even though he will improve for the Step up in trip, he doesn't like tight tracks (hated Chester and doesn't like Wolverhampton even though he has won there before). He may still prove too good but KINKY AFRO is a massive price and is a progressive filly. 11/2 Win bet for me in the 7.20 Wolverhampton.
Regards. |
I agree Swagger and have gone in 1.5pts @ 9/2 BoG. The receipt of 6 lb's could make the difference. I don't rate the favourites last race at the course as highly as the handicapper and the step up in trip is a big ? for me where as Kinky Afro has looked like she needed every yard in her last 2 starts over 1m so might find the improvement necessary to take this. It's pretty much the same scenario as Presvis vs Alexandros. Here's for hoping.
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Gorg_George
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Did it nicely, well played Swagger.
In the next the favourite looks very tough to beat. Reproducing the last piece of form again would surely see this one with it's head infront. There are a lot of horses who could feasibly improve after the one start. The one that looks most likely to either upset the odds-on fav or come home in second is Fillbeg, who, now switched surfaces, should be a different propostion altogether.
0.75 pts Win Fillbeg @ 12.5
2.25 pts TBP Fillbeg @ 1.95
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Swagger
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GG - Gamble landed mate! Great shout with Desperate Dan the other day, I've been so busy I didn't get round to mentioning it. Watch out for Total Impact, he never really got any cover and was wide all the way from his draw. I think he will win within his next two runs.
Regards.
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Gorg_George
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| Swagger wrote: | GG - Gamble landed mate! Great shout with Desperate Dan the other day, I've been so busy I didn't get round to mentioning it. Watch out for Total Impact, he never really got any cover and was wide all the way from his draw. I think he will win within his next two runs.
Regards. |
Thanks mate. I'll keep my eye open for TI.
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Gorg_George
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1 pt Fitwarren @ 10/1 (365) In the lucky last. Barodine the danger.
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