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| andyanr |
NOVICE HURDLE LAY SYSTEMAs indicated a few weeks ago, I have been doing research on results in past years on penalised novice hurdlers.I am declaring my season open! I am planning to have a small lay (to win 5% of my bank) in today’s 4.50 at Fontwell. Salford City. NB THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE I AM KEEN TO START - not very disciplined I know! My stakes are low today because there are a number of statistical indicators that suggest caution (even though my thoughts on the race suggest I should wade in deep on this irish raider - short price, 3rd race in 15 days, trainer 1/13 with his novice raiders etc). Today is an introduction to a thread where followers and sceptics of this system can review progress. I hope that the moderators will allow this thread to be kept live for those who wish to follow this rather dull, but potentially profitable way of betting as the season progresses. The reasons for me not going in “deep, deep, deep, deep” as Eddie Murphy would say are; Course is not brilliant for lays (15/33) September has not been a good month historically - few qualifiers and poor results 9/11 of the qualifiers have won their race! Good-Firm going produces a low profit (<9% overall – lots of recycled cash which is not what we want) So why post this at all? Horses that turn out again within 9 days are beaten 50% of the time in these races (based on 430 results so far). So I am now interested at short odds, particularly as 17 of the 25 beaten were at odds on! So a small interest to get the season going. Please note, these are sequence bets to expect a profit. Even at the very best of tracks (which give a 40% return on these bets over 19 years!)there have been sequences of 5 penalised runners carrying their penalty to victory. However there have also been sequences where 7 penalised runners have been beaten on the trot! Cautious start to the thread, but I hope an interesting read, even for the sceptics...... I would be interested to hear via PM from any NH track experts who have more detailed knowledge about characteristics of courses (beyond what I already have = eg Newcastle - L/H, stiff, galloping, uphill Perth - R/H tight, flat etc) |
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| alansouthcoast |
Nice post Andy, i will make a link in the popular threads link which is sticky at the top of this page.
I am guessing you have all the usual track info about individual courses. One thing that i am interested in is the results when a horse returns to the same track as the previous win. Many horses just seem to well at the same track. |
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| YAIYAM |
Surely Level stakes through out the whole year is the only way to take a system like this on as if you start off small and win over the first 3 months then up the stakes the profits can go very quickly because you are not talking about big prices i suppose another way is to have a spread sheet that matches stakes to prices but this can also cut down profit.
good luck anyway |
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| andyanr |
You have identified the key issue - it is one thing knowing you have the stats in your favour, but quite another to know how to exploit it best. Level stakes on all qualifiers give you a profit, but the key is to improve on that so you don't recycle so much money. I am looking at a number of variables (price, course, month, distance, going and price LTO, days since last run .....) On the most favourable courses I am going to do level stakes and try and get on in running as well. As the novice huirdle season really gets going (october onwards) I hope to leave races like this one at Fontwell alone! I watched the betfair market on some qualifers earlier this year - very interesting to see some favs (say at 6/4 before the off, with very few in running backers from the off - these ones loose, but you can't lay anything in running due to the price - you just have to hope you had enough on before the off). Lets see how this one does.... |
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| Saint Alebe |
Well done mate - of to a good start and hope it contiues for you - I will keep an eye on this thread with interest
Saint |
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| theGoingStick |
Echo Saint Alebe's sentiments, it's good to see people getting into the laying side of gambling !!! | ||||
| jennywales |
Why? If the objective is to make money, and laying horses (or anything else for that matter) does it for you, then fine. However, I cannot for the life of me see (personal opinion!) how backing a horse to lose is anything other than simply trying to make a profit. If that's what floats your boat, fine. Personally, I much prefer to back what I think will win. But "horses for courses", as they say! |
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| Paddydeman |
I apologise in advance... Personally, I love laying the fillies. |
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| alansouthcoast |
I see no difference in laying a favourite to lose, or backing against the favourite on another horse. Either way the fav needs to get beaten !
Its not just betting to make money, its backing an opinion that the fav will get beat. |
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| theGoingStick |
Well said ASC !!! |
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| Paddydeman |
However, backing another horse means you are choosing another horse to win and therefore cheering on that horse imparticular, which for me is where the main enjoyment of horse racing comes from. Laying a horse means you are cheering on a whole bunch of horses to finish infront of the laid horse, which I admit I have done in the past but I don't really get the same buzz from seeing your horse lose (when you want it to) as I do from seeing your horse win (when you want it to). |
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| FallonFacta |
I'm on this side  Except that I've never tried laying.
(So I tend to keep quiet on this topic.) |
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| shamardal84 |
Ive actually been laying horses this weekend in a roundabout way. Basically ive been backing them to win and the rest is history 
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| JDFUNKY |
"you" back, "they" lay
"they" win, "you" lose "you" win, "they" lose Without one, the other does not exist A perfect symbiosis Amen.............!! |
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| dogsaver |
ive never layed a horse before a race but have layed a horse that i had backed at a good price in running as i though another horse would beat it,
been wrong a couple of times when its gone on to win and have picked up less though |
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| theGoingStick |
Sorry to go slightly OT here !!!
But can anyone tell me how you can back for less than £2 on betfair in running. So I'm thinking of the situation where you've laid something and it's gone out to 1000 on the back side (no pun intended) and nowt on the lay side. You want to go total green but you only need say 50p to achieve it, is there any way to do it !!! I know it's squabling over a couple of quid but I'm sure it mounts up over time !!! |
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| dogsaver |
afraid i can't help | ||||
| shamardal84 |
Yes, there is a way to do it. If i remember correctly this is how you do it... With £2 being the minimum stake you would put the amount you want to put on the horse and the odds you wanted so say 50p at 50.0 and then you would click the remaining £1.50 at unmatchable odds like 999.0. Therefore you are submitting a £2 bet but only 50p gets matched, then you just withdraw the £1.50 bet and there ya go. I guess if your looking to put 50p on at 1000 then im struggling to find a way to do that... |
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| andyanr |
Most of us are seeking 'value' in our bets. There are a lot of posts that say '........ horse should win, but it is not for me at such skinny odds' This method (given to us by RJI over a year ago) is just identifying value in that a horse has gone too short for its real chance of winning. I would argue that this takes almost as much effort as finding winners. It is looking at course, time of year, run LTO, going, price etc and the 'form' is the history of how horses in similar circumstances have fared in the past. I do not get quite the same buzz as when I back a winner, but seeing a sea of green on your screen, except for the horse you have layed, with that horse being available to back at 1000/1 gets close enough for me - certainly gets the heart pumping as these horses usually run well until near the last fence!! You can surmise from the above comment that I have not found any stats that will support laying the fav to be unplaced in these races (wish I could!!). The laying in running option may be a route to better profits .... when I go for this option, you will get the odd horse where there seems absolutely no intention of winning and you can't get on 'in running' .... then you just have to shrug your shoulders and wait for the next opportunity. I experimented with backing qualifiers and then laying a higher stake at a lower price to improve the value (and lessen risk). This came very unstuck last season with Golden Child - drifted badly on betfair (4/6-6/4), but I thought it would be backed before the off - it wasn't and I could not lay anything off in running as the layers were taking any bets put up for matching (including up to 5/1 by the second hurdle!). So I was cheering the horse I wanted to lay ... to win!!!! analysis from RP said it all '.....this was obviously not his true running' Grrrrrrrr 
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=427552 Ouch!! I am a bit wiser now and I hope, not so greedy! Tip for those backing ‘in running’…… if you are lucky enough to have a decent betfair balance, you don’t want to risk loosing it in a moment of madness, like hitting the wrong key or double hitting a figure (so you type 55, rather than 5). Put most of your balance in the betfair 'Australian wallet' – costs nothing and you can transfer too and from in seconds. If your UK balance is exceeded, then it will not let you place a bet until you have transferred from Aus wallet. I have only had that ‘sinking feeling’ once – never want it again! |
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| alansouthcoast |
Paddy.....While i agree nothing is better than cheering home a winner, especially at long odds. Many people back favs to big money race after race. In my opinion thats no different from laying favs, as its just another system to make money. | ||||
| andyanr |
Notre Cyborg 16.45 Bangor tomorrowNo bet for me (or a tiny, tiny lay in running at 1/2 or shorter if i can be bothered) . No stats to indicate anything other than a recycling money bet (eg win one, loose one).I have some questions for you form experts though. How does a trainer plan for a horse like this? Might win another one or at a push two 'easy' novice events, but if he does, how does he ever win a handicap hurdle again for a year or so? If he we to bypass this engagement for a handicap in 2 days (Stratford), he would already be top weight (11:13) in a class 4 race. Handicapper has already upped him 12lbs for his two wins (only one penalty as one win was in conditionals race). At this price, surely connections will be keeping their money in their pocket. Do they have an interest in the horse coming 2nd 3rd or 4th? Thoughts? |
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| YAIYAM |
Re: Notre Cyborg 16.45 Bangor tomorrow
Because he is a novice if he raced in a graded novice event he would only carry the same as all the others unless there were specific penalties The handicap hurdle race is only a 0-110 so if this horse is a potential 130+ horse then it could win that race even with top weight and others in the future until it hits its right handicap rating mark |
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| andyanr |
Re: Notre Cyborg 16.45 Bangor tomorrow
Thanks for that, definate no bet for me, so not worried if it wins or looses now. There will be much much better opportunities and it looks like it may go off at evens or greated if betfair is anything to go by. |
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| RightJudgeIam |
Notre Cyborg beaten today...managed to lay 1.96 | ||||
| Paddydeman |
Just to add to this. Say you want 50p on a horse at 100 on Betfair. 1. Put £2 on the horse at say 500 so it will not get matched. 2. Then, go to my bets and edit the bet to £2.50 at the same unmatchable odds. 3. Because of the system Betfair operates on, it goes on as 2 separate bets. You now have 2 bets, £2 at 500 and £0.50 at 500. 4. Cancel the £2 bet. You are now left with the £0.50 at 500. 5. Edit the odds back down to what odds you want, and there you go a 50p bet on Betfair. |
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| andyanr |
Sunday 23rd September 207Two expected qualifiers and both at tasty prices for laying. The statistical indicators for both these races are nothing to shout about, so stakes will be small and I will be trying to beat SP. The main attraction are the prices (remember 1/ 4 shots regularly get beaten with this system!) . Future lay bets will be to win up to 15 pts.3.00 Plumpton Alsaldaa (RP predicted SP 4/6 currently 1.68 on betfair) If Young Owen misbehaves at the start as it can, then the fav may go much shorter. In any case I will be looking to lay just before the off, or early in running at shorter than SP. If not, it is money stays in pocket for another day. My target price – 1.52 to win 5pts (average including in running if necessary) 2.50 Uttoxeter Levitski (RP predcted SP 1/2 currently 1.67 on betfair) Jonjo, McCoy, McManus combo – should be well backed !!! My target price – 1.48 to win 4pts (average including in running if necessary) (I missed out last weekend when the fav got beat, but I know this will happen. It is profit over the season that counts. I expect there to be between 60 and 70 ‘qualifiers’ betting opportunities between now and May 08 and I will probably be laying over 40 of these) PS For those of you not fully familiar with the system, novice hurdle qualifiers have to have won LTO, be penalised for the win (so races for condtionals etc don't count) and races for a single age group do not qualify (such as Hypnotic Vibes in the 2.00 Plumpton - 3 year olds only ). |
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| RightJudgeIam |
morning Andy
will have a look as usual |
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| RightJudgeIam |
well of the two, Levitski looks a classic system qualifier to me, won an egg and spoon race 19 days ago and has to give weight to a rival with similar form...definitely opposable
The 4yo at Plumpton won a decent heat in good time and is certain to go close...may well be able to lay much shorter in running...won on g/f too be interesting to see |
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| david-uk |
Blimey, you took a battering there, both won! Only short though. | ||||
| SIR_Bond |
Levitski i thought was a cracking bet yesterday couldnt see anything in the field that was gonna trouble this one...
Racing post had it priced up at 1/2 went off at 11/8 bet of the day if you ask me... The McCoy factor as well always worth ago if you ask me won by 11 lenthes aswell..
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| beathollow92 |
Short term losses when using systems are unavoidable. It is long term profit that matters.
In fact, most odds on horses carrying penalties actually win, but the average price is such that laying them is profitable. I use a version of this system and it works very well and shows an excellent ROI inclusive of Betfair commission and inflated Betfair SPs. With 90% of these horses you could say that "nothing in the field can trouble it" yet the facts are that if you backed every horse like this you would lose heavily. |
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| andyanr |
Very good uderstanding of the system beathollow92. I lost on both, but had target prices much shorter than SP if I was to get involved as the stats for these courses were not very good (I was matched in running quite early in the races at 1.6 ish on both). You have to shrug your shoulders and wait for the next one. I got involved out of impatience for the main jumps season to start. On average there will be one outstanding and one good opportunity each week between November and March. You must be prepared to lay horses at 2/11, 1/4 etc when people have bet up to £500,000 on it winning. It is a matter of maths - backing them shows a loss overall, laying them shows a profit overall (even after betfair's cut). The trick is to avoid laying in races where favs have a good historical record and to try and beat SP where possible. A lot of these horses run well and get picked off late in the race, so should trade below their SP quite early in the race - beating SP by 5% is fine, or where the stats suggests significant caution - lay only in running much shorter than SP, which is what I did on Sunday (at east 40% below SP). It is tricky as the margins are quite small. Lets see how we go this season. Major opportunities will be clearly announced here, though remember that sequences come in all sizes (in terms of lay bet winning or losing). So picking a race and going for a major 'coup' is high risk! LLWWWLLWWWLLLWLWLLLLWLLLWWLWWLWWLWLWLLLWWWWWWLWWWWWLLLWLLWLWLWWlWW - so you might go two/three weeks without a lay success, or have 10/11 favs getting beaten. You certainly need a decent bank to start doing this. Oh for discipline... the nightmare of Golden Child Last season still haunts me - I got gready and backed the horse, expecting to lay at a lower price before the off (failed!), or in running (failed!)! Cost me three months 'profit'! Ouch!! |
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| andyanr |
3.30 Perth Thursday 27th OctoberMay be a qualifier tomorrow at Perth. All indicators say that layers should leave this course well alone. So not even looking at the runners. Will be having a look at Levitski (3.40 Fontwell) - this was the horse that drifted badly, but won easily 4 days ago when I was laying in running at 1.65). Now carrying McCoy and a double penalty. Interiesting
Will post later on the stats - and remember it needs to be at 6/4 or shorter to qualify. |
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| andyanr |
Levitski 3.40 Fontwell (27/09/07)Only a small stakes in running' interest for me as last weekend, unless the smash the current price (1.9ish) in to about 1.65. There will be better opportunities within 4 weeks I assure you - oh please give me some patience!PS Very strange early market - got a small amount on at 1.7, when someone took all prices from 1.9 to 1.7, then the price drifted back to 1.93 (backed a ver small amount at that price to make the remaining lay at an average of 1.64). Have put up very small lay bets at prices 1.7 and shorter to see if they are matched whilst I am at work. Hope to get back in time to manage my liabilities, or get on in running! What do others think - this is the horses third race in less than 4 weeks? |
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| SIR_Bond |
Re: Levitski 3.40 Fontwell (27/09/07)
I will be backing it to win like i did last time.... ticks all the right boxes for me with McCoy in the saddle to take this.. Also this time round on betfair its being backed so im on .. |
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| beathollow92 |
Fits my system so I will be taking it on with something else. I wont be laying it, I will be backing another horse. I will start laying these horses in a couple of weeks when the jumps season starts properly, to get the system up and running.
Form and systems are 2 different things, and should not be confused. As I have said again and again, most of these horses DO win, but the average price of all qualifiers makes it profitable to lay them all. Nobody is saying this horse wont win, or that he doesnt have good form. But laying these horses shows an excellent ROI. Andy - a few questions if you dont mind. You have put in an incredible amount of work in researching these results, and I dont expect you to divulge too much info!! But I was wondering if you could help me with a wee bit of general info. My stats on novice hurdles go back to 1 Jan 2005. Finding what horses were carrying penalties was not straightforward, as the weight given by the RP race report includes a jockeys allowance - so it is not completey obvious what horses were carrying penalties. Therefore, I only started making a note of penalised favs since 11 Feb this year. Since then, I have calculated that laying penalised favs at evens or less to yield an ROI of almost 21% (inclusive of commission and inflated Betfair SP). Would this ROI be consistent over the length of time your records go back? Also, you say that some courses have much better records than others. Would I be right in assuming that, generally, the better the track, the worse record these horses have? Lastly - would I be right to assume that horses with penalties do better at sharp tracks such as Fontwell, Wincanton, Plumpton etc? Cheers John |
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| andyanr |
Re: Levitski 3.40 Fontwell (27/09/07)quote]I will be backing it to win like i did last time.... ticks all the right boxes for me with McCoy in the saddle to take this.. Also this time round on betfair its being backed so im on ..[/quote] You could well be right and it could trot up. I am just playing the percentages - this sort of bet satistically is not great, but I am on ecause I won't lose mutch and like some others here, I admit to not being to disciplined. I want to be in the game!!! Here we go.... |
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| andyanr |
OK another loser for the system - I was laying to loose 3% at 1.61 average for the record.
Beathollow92 - I don't want to bore everyone with details, but happy to chat via PM Andy |
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| SIR_Bond |
I would go as far to say that you should consider the McCoy factor with this system because he is the man that gets these horses wining time and time again ? No ? | ||||
| beathollow92 |
These horses are over bet in any case - punters see a win next to its name, and they are over bet for that reason.
Add that to the many punters that follow mccoy, and his mounts in these races will be hugely over bet. That is my assumption without any facts to back me up. AP gets alot of winners, and these horses win most of the time. Combine those 2 factors and McCoy will ride alot of favs to victory in these races. If you continue to be selective SB then I am sure that it is possible for you to make a profit in this type of race. In terms of a system, which myself and others are doing, laying them all yields a good ROI. The way me and you would look at this race is completely different. He, I would look at the stats concerning this type of horse, and it wouldnt matter who was riding it. Also, in this case, the 2nd fav Most Definitley (who ran poorly) was actually ahead of Levitski on adjusted RPRS. The horse that Most Definitely chased home LTO subsequntly won again. Therefore, I could not possibly have backed Levetski at the price - even though he was the most likely winner. To summarise - If you are selective when backing short priced favs carrying penalties in novice hurdles then you can make a profit. If you lay all short priced favs carrying penalties in novice hurdles then you will make a profit. |
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| SIR_Bond |
Im with you but what im saying is if you can be selective with your laying then surely this will help increase the profit.... I dont see the need to lay every horse with a penalty recently this has been proven with Levitski twice now... Thats all im saying.... Im not knocking the process as it has proved to make a profit over a period of time.... another reason being why i dont lay is because i cant i dont bet online at work i dont dare risk it i jsut bet up the bookies at lunch.... |
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| beathollow92 |
Aye I see what you mean, Andy has his system which factors in Courses and other things. It would be possible to do that.
I would be certain that more of these horses get beat at good tracks, where unexposed/unknown horses from big yards take on previous winners. My stats have price/course/class/penalty only. And go back to 1/1/05. To make a system even more selective would require a huge amount of work. Raceform interactive would be able to do it in seconds, but it is quite expensive. I hope to get it relatively soon though to maximse this type of system. To research all kinds of data jockey/trainer/previous runs etc would make it such a big task, Im not sure in would be really worth the effort. It would take maybe a week non stop to research all that for 5 year data. This time last year I reseached results for 4 weeks solid. It was terrible! With McCoy, I do think that his ability in this type of horse would be cancelled out by the fact that his odds on mounts in this type of race would be over bet. In other words, the his value as a jockey would ba cancelled out by a lack of value in price. Even with hindsight, I still think Most Definitely was worth taking Levetski with. If that one had run up to previous form it could have troubled the fav. But it ran a shocker. Thats just the way I look at races though. |
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| SIR_Bond |
When you say price do you mean value of the horse ? how did you get this information ? |
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| SIR_Bond |
Why dont bookies let you lay horses ?
Or am i being thick here ? |
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| andyanr |
I considered Raceform Interactive - my understanding is that this software only goes back 5 years of results. I am no mathematician, but if you have say 80-100 qualifiers per year, you are not going to be too confident about some statistics. If you take results on firm ground as an example - your 5 years of data might only be 20 races. If you are trying to get stats that you can be confident about IMHO you need as much data as possible - and that is a slog. You also need to take a view on whether a claimer taking 7lbs of a penalised runner is a qualifier or not. I take the view that a claimer is given a claim for a reason - to even things up against experienced jockeys. If a trainer is putting up a claimer when he didn't LTO, he is clearly concerned about the weight factor, so the horse is probably not 'streets ahead' of the opposition.
beathollow92 - totally agree about the McCoy factor - don't mind when he is up on a qualifier - price will easily factor in his supreme skills (we have all seen him stick tired horses on his back and carry them across the line). I have also seen him beaten on 1/4 shots! |
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| beathollow92 |
With every price, you have to decide whether its "value" or not. Value is your own opinion.
Value is a subjective, and probably indescribable. It could take up thousands of apges on here in a discussion. Take Deep Impact in the Arc last year. On the PMU it was something like 1/5. If you were at Longchamp, and were extremely confident it would win, would you take the 1/5 on the PMU? Would that be value? Just because you choice is a winner, does that make it value? If we tossed a coin, and I gave you 1/2 about heads (an evens shot obviously) and you picked heads, would that 1/2 winner be value? I believe that a horse at any price can be value. I think that there are brilliant value odds on shots out there. In a conditions race, if a horse who is 10lbs clear on ORs, has his ideal ground and trip is 4/5.... That could be great value. Its an opinion. As for the claimers... Technically the weight shouldnt matter, as the weight "advantage" should componsate the lack of ability/experience. It is a hard thing to weigh up. Like all weight allowances in racing, it is there to even things up. Whether it actually does is hard to answer. I suppose you would just have to ignore this type of horse if you couldnt explain it to yourself. |
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| andyanr |
My stats tell me to stay away from this weekends fixtures (M Rasen and Worcester. | ||||
| RightJudgeIam |
There's a nice qualifier at Fontwell on Saturday in th 3.25 forecast 11/10....Pipe runner | ||||
| andyanr |
Armenian Boy
Agree this is a qualifier and I will be having a small interest. I just think there will be better ROI in a few weeks. I am getting impatient to the time when we may have two better opportunities than this. This season, in addition to other stats, I am going to try and improve ROI by trying to give extra confidence in identifying vulnerable favs by adding in these extra factors; Horse/Class: Has horse shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of today's race. Horse/Track: Has the horse proven ability on either today's track or one with similar characteristics. Horse/Recent: General form over the last few weeks. Horse/Dist: Has the horse shown the ability or obvious potential to run competitively over today's distance. Horse/Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle today's ground. Trainer/Track: Has trainer at least a 10% strike rate on today's track. Trainer/Recent: Has trainer had at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 days. Jockey/Track: Has jockey at least a 10% strike rate on today's track. This qualifier ticks all the boxes as a worthy fav, which s why I will be having a small interest. Maybe there is something better tomorrow in the 4.20 at Huntingdon (Zero), although the horse would have to be shorter than predicted SP to qualify. |
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| andyanr |
Anyone backing Armenian needs to be aware that the price is close to where it wold be a no bet uder the system. I am not laying this horse at 6/4. I would hope that it races more prominently than before, meaning I can have my small bet in running.
For those who follow the system strictly, the best way to see whether a horse is 6/4 or less is to have ladbrokes on another screen and refresh just before the off. |
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| andyanr |
Not a qualifier, but got beat just the same. Just have to wait for the next bus! Maybe tomorrow! | ||||
| RightJudgeIam |
Well I laid it anyway as I was pretty confident...laid it early too so got a good price
on to tomorrow |
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| andyanr |
Have been updating my records:
Although I was not interested in the Perth meeting last week, there was a qualifier and it got beaten 27/09/07 2.30 Compton Court Unplaced 11/10f And I noticed that no one, including myself spotted the qualifier at Hexham yesterday 05/10/07 4.50 Holiday Cocktail 2nd 10/11f There are over 1000 views/hits on this topic. Can I ask people who spot potential qualifiers to post on this page so we don't miss them. (September results 5 qualifiers, 3 were beaten - W4/6, W11/10, L11/10, L5/4, L4/6) |
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| RightJudgeIam |
Yep will do Andy .... as I did today.
would've posted Holiday Cocktail too but was forecast 5/2 and I thought he would drift...amazing that he went off at 10/11! whats up for sunday? |
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| andyanr |
Hi RJI I did a daft in running bet which came off, but that doesn't count on this thread. So man of these horses run well, but not quite well enough 
Zero 4.20 Huntingdon is a possibility, but may not qualify if others are backed as I suspect they might. About 5/4 in tiny market at present. Whats the form looking like? |
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| RightJudgeIam |
Well the form is distinctly ordinary and I suspect he will drift.
What about 4.10 Uttox Gone to Lunch 3.25 Kelso Ethans Star to go with Zero? They all look vulnerable to me |
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| andyanr |
Yes, slightly interested in all three, but results at Huntingdon have tended to be best (actually good) . I am more interested if any of these is likely to be raced prominently, so I can get on in running. Taking today's impatient bet on a non qualifier  as an example - I won 2.5pts from a 0.85 risk (7/4 SP). Where reslts at the course are not great I have to beat SP before the chips are really down in the race, or no bet.
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| RightJudgeIam |
well Ethans Star didnt run and the other 2 never reached the target price (one winner at 2/1 and a loser at 15/ ...wait for the next opps
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| andyanr |
Deep Purple, ExeterWe have a qualifier in the lucky last at Exeter today (Wed 10th October). The fav is very short, but could be a decent animal who can carry the double penalty. However, I shall be laying to small/modest stakes in running and trying to beat SP. When I looked earlier today, the price was about 1/3!It looks like this horse may try and make all and presumably win easily before going into handicaps. If he is parading before the off with this intention, then I may get 1/4 in running. I am hoping that the long uphill straight and 5 months off may find this one out. It won't cost me much if I am very wrong. This is one of those occasions when common sense says the fav can't be beaten, but the stats tell you that 1/3 2/7 shots can be vulnerable (at these prices the races should be penalty kicks). Better opportunities beckon, but I am having a go! |
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| andyanr |
Won on the bridle! Cost me 1.1pts (stood to win 6.1pts), but plenty of amunition for when the racing realy starts! | ||||
| Ferretio |
Afternoon everyone.
Does Iron Maid in the 14:20 @ Ludlow qualify? |
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| SIR_Bond |
Dunno but it won
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| Ferretio |
Yeah I know. Went up to 12 in running though. |
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| SIR_Bond |
12/1 in running ? Should of got on that !!! |
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| RightJudgeIam |
No because it was a mares only race. Eliminate Juvenile, Mares Only, Selling, Claiming and Handicap novice hurdles. Hope that clears it up |
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| RightJudgeIam |
2.45 Kelso Frankie Figg
won very well at Hexham 15 days and forecast at 8/11 and I will be getting stuck in and trying to get him beat |
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| andyanr |
My stats tell me this is a recycle your money course for penalised novice hurdlers, so I will only be having a V small bet in running if I can get on. I need to beat SP to make things work, or no bet (wait for next month when there will be great opportunities). SP margins are simply not available on the exchanges. Firstly there is a 5% commission and secondly the theoretical average 5+% difference between bookmakers SP and Exchange SP. A 10% overall profit in a system can be easily wiped out. I shall be looking for signs just before the off that this one is going to try and make all as it did last time. If so the horse will shorten quickly after the off. I will be looking to beat SP by an average of 15% (will try and calculate in my head )
A word of warning. Althout this horse beat a chaser who has never won over hurdles LTO the 3rd home has since won by 14 lengths last week! However that is not a reason not to lay this one - if you looked at the frorm in these races, you often can't see the fav getting beat, but they regularly do. How much of the owners and trainers money is going to be on this one at 8/11 - not a lot I would suggest, unless they have money to burn! |
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| andyanr |
Good Friday?Quite a while since I posted on the site. Well thank goodness I went on mybetting holiday, apart from being tempted twice and loosing 8% of my ‘pot’. We have two short priced penalised hurdlers today, who, from early market signals will be well supported. November stats are very good for this system, although these courses are far from the best in terms of ROI (return on investment). 1.10 Fontwell Forest Silver 1.50 Hexham Tot O’Whisky Those who follow the system may have their own rules on qualifiers (like mares only races not qualifying), but on my wider interpretation (novice, hurdle, < 6/4, won LTO and penalised) these runners are beginning to defy gravity. From mid September onwards, the results have been a system killer (unless you know, like ourselves, that October is a month to go on holiday!) Here is my sequence since mid Sept for these qualifiers (first results most recent): W 4/7 W10/11 W8/13 W10/11 W4/11 W5/4 L1/1 W6/4 L11/10 W1/2 W4/6 W11/10 W11/8 So that’s only 2/13 of these penalised horses getting beaten and a consecutive 'winning' run of 6. The record for the 19 years I researched is 8, so if these both win today, it will only have been matched once before, so I shall have my betting ‘bovva’ boots ready for the weekend. I have not seen such a run of winners before. I shall be laying the first at Fontwell and am weighing up whether to lay now, lay later (price may well contract), bet in running (Tot O’Whisky has run prominently), or a combination. I will then decide a lay stake on the second when I know the outcome of the first (remember you can have 8-10 of these horses loosing on the trot!) – wouldn’t it be great to have 80% of the qualifiers being beaten in November/December! Chance to make money today without threatening the bank too much, due to the odds (1/2, 4/6?). If not, see you all tomorrow when I shall be contemplating betting dialectically to win back what I have lost today, plus 5% (would be in ‘significant bet’ territory – 10-15% of bank, depending on price). But that is not going to happen is it, because we are going to get both of these improving horses turned over aren’t we
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| RightJudgeIam |
Andy
was wondering where you were... there was a qualifier at Huntingdon yesterday which would have been beaten if Lady Pilot hadn't fallen over at the last... will be trying to get these two beat...really don't like Tot o'Whiskey who looks vulnerable... once we start to get some proper winter going a lot more of these will get turned over all the best |
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| Solerina |
I think both of you have scared off connections
Tot o'Whiskey is a non runner
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| RightJudgeIam |
forest silver beaten at 1/2... nice | ||||
| andyanr |
Guess connections of Tot O'Whiskey saw the above posts and didn't want to take on the might of The Right Judge and Andyanr
As previously discussed elsewhere in the forum, I watched the parade before the race - showed this fav was going to lead off, so layed 40% of the bet in running. Ghost of Golden Child put to rest! Layed in running at 1/3 , backed in running at 2.1 and then layed in running again at 1.33. 4.8% of 8% system losses restored in 1 bet |
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| Solerina |
Good call on Forest Silver Andy. | ||||
| RightJudgeIam |
Market Rasen on sunday... Minaad forecast at 6/4 looks up against it as a 4yo against older horses | ||||
| andyanr |
Minaaid 2.30 Market Rasen
Considering that the main opposition has desered (McCoy mount) plus another non runner, this a weak fav by anyones standards. The second fav is also penalised. I shall be getting involved, but not at this price (1.83). The horse raced prominently on its British debut, so I am hoping to limit any potential damage by betting up to 90% in running. Target would be an average of < 1.5, or no bet. |
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| andyanr |
Fav won - hope the in betting runners took advantage of reducing the risk. I lost 1pt (would have won 3.3 if it had been beaten). Shorter than 1/3, so I can still smile at getting beat
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| andyanr |
Hlls of Aran 1.20 Carlisle
Potential qualifier today. Running style and questions about stamina mean that in runing lays will need to be very late in the race eg the horse may have nearly won), so it is before the off, or not at all for me. Calisle is not high up on my list of preferred courses (more of a graveyard for heavy odds on shots when penalised). Might just try to have a small in runing bet at very short odds (c1.3 or no bet), just in case it runs out of steam in the last 1/4 mile and McCoy has to stick the tired horse on hs back! Of course if it is > 6/4 SP, then all money stays in the bank (but it looks like the McCoy factor will mean it goes shorter)! |
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| andyanr |
Hills of Aran
Just qualified and won. Could have got 5/1 in running! I did bet, but at 1/4 (probably after the race was over). Hope others were cautious. Better times are ahead for this system I assure you. |
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| Ferretio |
Evelith Echo in the 12:50 @ Bang
Is this a qualifier for this system? I'm being divvy and am not sure. |
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| Hampton |
I hope not....it won! 
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| Ferretio |
Yeah - I know!
Still I took on Seven Disciples and made up for it.
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| Hampton |
I think you have to rather selective with this system & it's certainly something I would never get involved in.
If I think a short priced fav is going to get turned over I'll just back against it as you might just some value about something else in the race. Still each to their own as they say!
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| RightJudgeIam |
no it could not be a qualifier as a hurdling debutant |
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| Ferretio |
Thanks Judge. |
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| andyanr |
System updateThe slow start to November and the amazing run of these qualifiers winning has given me time to reflect and go back to basics. I have also started to manipulate the data in other ways, so I can try and get my money down when the positives seriously outweigh the down side. An happy to share some of these thoughts now I am working them out myself.3.0 Cheltenham Elusive Dream Is a qualifier, especially as it is double penalised. Yesterday I would have been going for this one in a big way (especially as we are due a run of these horses getting beaten – tough please not in the way we say today). This evening I am putting down my marker for a bet, but not to the sort of stakes I should be betting at this time of year. Positives are; November a good month Cheltenham odds on don’t do well (only 3 from 14 have carried penalties to victory!) Cheltenham heavy odds on don’t do well at all (0 from 4 carried penalties to victory!) Uphill finish is a general positive indicator Good ground is a general positive indicator (don’t know why) but Any change in the going from LTO (good) would also be a positive indicator as well (rain forecast for tomorrow?). Particularly relevant in November. (Ruby Walsh won’t be riding this one due to injury) Negatives are; Overall, the bulk profits in this system (based on 1365 results) are at odds between 8/13 and 6/4. This one is currently trading below 1/2 on Betfair. This November hasn’t reflected the pattern of previous years (eg number of qualifiers, results during first 2 weeks of November etc) Best results are at extreme distances and at 9 hurdles or less (this one is 10?) (as an aside, if you ever see a lot of hurdles removed – sun, or due to ground – eg less than 7 – lay, lay, lay the penalised horse – again, I can’t tell you why! Will anyone who sees or hears about hurdles being missed out, post this on here – there are many of us who are not able to see races all week) Verdict – Yes I am interested. Need the results to reflect history better before I up stakes. It won’t cost me much if I loose. Most of my stake will be on before the off. Lay to loose 4% of bank (aiming to win 6-7%). Good luck and I don’t want to see any more horses die tomorrow. |
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| RightJudgeIam |
This is a serious animal indeed... but I'm still laying him
once we get some proper jumping ground there will be plenty more opportunities especially with those that win at the gaff tracks... |
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| andyanr |
Hi RJI
Hope the results start to fall in place now the rain has started to fall Here are the tracks I am most interested in; Fakenham (has a lot of races for Amateurs, so doesn't fit some versions of the system) Ascot Exeter Newcastle Ludlow Towcester Wincanton Folkestone Warwick Musselburgh Hexham Huntingdon Wetherby Stratford |
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| RightJudgeIam |
the world and his wife wants to get this beat today
have laid 1.51 to win 20 points...out to 1.7 |
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| andyanr |
And beaten it was! The season has finally started
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| RightJudgeIam |
yep with the rain coming there will be plenty more!! |
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| lochsong |
Blimey!
According to SL, someone had 8K on the winner to win 56K! They knew
LS |
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| andyanr |
Potentially two qualifiers tomorrow
Ouzbeck 12:50 Warwick Tot O'Whisky 1.40 Hexham I am seeking to lay them both before the off Even though both horses are respected (the former has changes stables since its win - hard luck on the original trainer!). I will be aiming to win 5-6pts on each, so liabilities will be bigger on Ouzbeck due to it being odds against. I might invest a bit more if they both shorten. The courses are 9th and 11th best for results (out of 40 or so courses) |
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| SIR_Bond |
Could be right there, Ouzbeck looks like we will really see what he is made of tomorrow... |
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| SIR_Bond |
Whats odds will you get for laying these two then ?
Also are you laying it just not to win i take it ? |
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| Solerina |
Ouzbeck beaten at odds on
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| andyanr |
I am in at work. Pity I didn't get better odds on the first, but getting this one beat was the first task - accomplished
This one was very heavily backed - had to keep my nerve! |
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| jayfle |
Same with the other aswell into 1/2 on the exchanges. | ||||
| SIR_Bond |
Hello no one gonna answer ? Ps the other one won so you up or down for the day ? |
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| andyanr |
Sorry, I have been at work all day. Second horse won as previously posted. I am even on the day. Layed both as singles to win the same amount (the only thing that varied would be that I would have lost more if the first horse had won as I laid it at greater odds - actually > evens  )
Looks like no action tomorrow. Friday - one possible at Ascot 12:50 (but Jonjo has not named a jockey, so may well be non runner - McCoy is named on runners later that day) Exeter - no potential qualifiers Kelso is a no go area for me. Saturday Very interested in 12:10 Ascot due to course results. Hope we have a hot one at a shortish price (Gone to Lunch???) Haydock - not very good indicators (may have a look at the 12:30 but probably a no bet, no matter what turns out (5 penalised runners) Huntingdon 1.25 - Otage de Brion a possible if it is declared. Looks like a quiet time for the system
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| SIR_Bond |
Can i ask do you bet any other way or is this it ? | ||||