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Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject: COUNTY HURDLE - MUSINGS
This is a veritable minefield given the size of the entry list. At present I’ve only managed to rule out Top Ram and Sea Map!
But to get the ball rolling I’ll sift through some of the market principals, and those that are attracting a bit of attention on Betfair
My rules of engagement shall be current official rating, Racing Post Rating, and Topspeed. These shall be assessed against the prevailing going for the Friday……basically, Fast.
Psycho: Top of the shop regards the betting……but that appears purely as pre-emptive action from the bookies due to the Tony Martin factor. Not one to consider until you see a lorry load of cash being dumped on it on the day of the race. The form is uninspiring on good ground.
County Zen: A likely lad, as his run in the Totesport is good form. He may still be ahead of the handicapper coming into this.
The downsides are…he holds multiple entries, and will French Saulaie be the Hobbs horse to follow in the race. The picture is not yet clear. But will be worth consideration though as this race looks his best bet should this emerge at his target.
Jered: Hard to know what to make of the horse. His best bit of form, was in defeat!......behind Captain Cee Bee, and JP bought Jered after that race. He only holds entries in the 2m hurdle races, yet has the pedigree of a stayer. Too short a price for my liking given he may just not be quick enough for this.
I’msingingtheblues: A nice, solid horse, who’s now looking as though he’s finding his level…..but there could still be a good 5lb’s of improvement in him before he levels off….which may not be quite good enough. Also likely to run earlier in the week in one of the novice hurdles which won’t help.
Blue Bajan: Good form with County Zen, and will come into consideration…….if the field starts to cut up enough at the 5 day mark, and then it may be worth ignoring his last run. A quality flat recruit, who looks to have this as his main target at the festival.
I’m not sure whether Mon Michel is racing in this so I’ll leave him alone.
Astarador: I was very impressed with this horse from the first time I saw him run at Wetherby. It’s remarkable that he’s come back from a serious injury, and he seems to have maintained his talent. He may though prefer he’s ground with a bit of juice in it.
Wingman: A good winner of the Totesport….he’s up 10lb for that, but the speed figures suggest there’s more to come.
The Totesport Trophy at Newbury is a good yardstick, but I’ll also look at the County Hurdle trial from Dundalk last Friday night too, to see if there are any pointers.
DUNDALK (A.W) 29 February 2008
Standard
9:10 Hanratty Oils Race (4yo+) 1m4f
TRAINER Age Wgt
1 Harchibald (FR) Noel Meade 9 9-2
2 1¼ Emmpat C F Swan 10 9-12
3 shd Kalderon (GER) T Hogan 8 9-2
4 shd Kempes Ms F M Crowley 5 9-2
5 1 Bobs Pride D K Weld 6 9-2
6 1¼ Silent Wind (GER) Martin Brassil 6 8-9
7 nk Al Eile John Queally 8 9-2
8 1¼ Eagle´s Pass T J O´Mara 6 9-12
9 shd Arpino (GER) T Hogan 5 9-2
10 4½ Zaralabad C F Swan 4 9-7
11 2½ Nora Chrissie Niall Moran 6 9-2
12 nk Saltino D T Hughes 6 8-9
13 3½ Alfredian Park R McGlinchey 4 8-13
14 4 Qiu (GER) T G McCourt 6 9-0
15 nk House Of Bourbon C F Swan 5 9-2
This race may indeed throw up a Cheltenham Festival winner……but not in Harchibald….who looks a nice horse to go to Dubai.
The three to look at here are Emmpat, Bob’s Pride and Eagle’s Pass.
Emmpat: was finishing very well in the race, and that looked eye catching. But at 10’s is he going to get into the mix in the County….particularly off a rating of 140 which seems his ceiling.
Bob’s Pride: A Champion Hurdle wannabe….and he ran ok in this race. He likes good ground, he’s a group winner in Ireland, but he’s up 16lb and will probably take his place earlier in the week in the CH.
Eagles Pass: Another good ground type, with interesting form. He’s been chasing in some pretty decent sorts over the past year. Sizing Europe, Farmer Brown & now Harchibald.
He ran against Sizing Europe at last years Punchestown festival. Held well up off the pace, he finished very well in a race SE was pushed out to win…..although I’m led to believe SE has grown the muscles of a sprinter, and the wings of Pegasus since.
His run behind Farmer Brown was in the Galway Hurdle, which is a fast run big field handicap…so the form there looks reasonable.
He ran against Harchibald, which was his first “blow out” since October, giving Harchie 10lb at the weights (as did Emmpat)…so that looks a reasonable attempt.
This horse looks an intriguing entry, and I’ll be keeping an eye on him.
And one from a stable that likes to land a gamble. From that Galway race won by Farmer Brown, the 2nd home was Freeloader. He’s had a couple of sharpeners on the a/w too, but also holds a Linclon entry. Should he turn up on the Friday I think he should be considered.
So the horses to carry forward:
Wingman…..looks to have a bit more to come.
Eagles Pass…..potentially well handicapped, based on the horses he’s been taking on.
Freeloader…ran well at Galway, and could easily do the same at Cheltenham
At present it’s a no bet market as we are NRNB, so normalisation has generally taken place and the prices restricted in value. These though are the three I’ll will be carrying into Festival week.
LUFC, hello matey, if you get the chance have a look at my Charlie Mann thread and I seriously recommend backing Kanad e/w for County Hurdle NRNB. Charlie Mann gave me one tip today which I only managed to tell Tommy and Saint (sorry mate) and Going Stick that Shavansky would win, so the information I have from the stable is very very reliable!!!
is my fancy for this, an unexposed novice hurdler who looks to have the required crusing speed to be effective in such a fast run race also good ground will be to his advantage
He jumps well for an inexperienced horse and must go close _________________ Tazbar = machine up north (wont be beaten over hurdles in scotland)
Aux Le Bahn = serious serious engine
Bible Lord = very well handicapped
Mon Michel was second or third favourite at Sandown last week, for the Imperial Cup. He didnt have a race as he fell at the first so maybe he is a good bet for this.
Yep i like the two Moore horses here. Mon Michel is preferred due to jockey bookings and the fact that he has yet to be clobbered by the handicapper - but the way the form of the totesport is working out and the way wingman won (thought it was a bit cosy in the end) means there could be another 10lbs to come from his easily.
Missis Potts should be in the Coral Cup but should run well but probably place prospects at best over this trip. Mohayer may get placed but won't win. Psycho - no idea. Maybe hack up, maybe not!
On the whole it's Mon Michel with a saver on Wingman and maybe one or two place bets
I was humming and arring for a while of what to go for but then had this idea that as Alan King was having a slight go at Nicholls the other week about another getting beat by one of his has put me on, i think, a clever dig. With Katchit winning and Old Benny as well. I think Mr King will like to round off the week with a bit of KINGS REVENGE.
So i am not basing my selection on form or stats (will leave that to you proper punters) but purely on getting one over on Ditcheat with an aptly named horse.
MT jnr _________________ THERE ARE 2 RULES TO SUCCESS. RULE 1)DONT TELL EVERYONE WHAT YOU KNOW
Well, I like Imsingingtheblues and King's Revenge, but there's always a cunning plot horse in this that I miss, so I'm not going to have a bet until I see how badly the rest of the day has gone!
Freeloader E/W Used to back this alot when trainer on the flat & has done well since being sent to Ireland. Had a spin on the flat the other day! _________________ SBH Comp 2008 - Runner Up
I have talked myself into a few quid on Silver Jaro at a big price. I havent studied the race in any detail at all but this horse is one I always look at as a possible back to lay.
He is a very strong traveller so this strong pace will suit. He has run well in the Pierse and the better ground will help.
The race at Clonmel LTO can be ignored as they went no pace at all that day. Looking at the form, even the winner Streets Of Gold did not get a TS rating.
Has similar hurdles RPRs to Wanango who is at 7.4.
Ran poorly in the Fred Winter last year but had first time blinkers that day so can be excused. A small back to lay for me at 85 currently, hoping to lay off at 25.
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but should run well but probably place prospects at best over this trip. Mohayer may get placed but won't win. Psycho - no idea. Maybe hack up, maybe not!
