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Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: Owl of Minerva's CORAL CUP PREVIEW
Owl of Minerva's CORAL CUP PREVIEW
As many of you will know I am not a big fan of using stats to find the winner of a race. So in this preview for the Coral Cup i won't be using any trends or stats but will simply be trying to find the horse(s) who I think have the most improvement in them based on their current BHA ratings. I'll select a NAP who I will suggest backing to win the race, and will also put a a Next Best (NB) who I will suggest backing each way.
The three horses that instantly catch the eye in the entries are, perhaps unsurprisingly, the three market leaders - Psycho, Leg Spinner and Ringaroses. Therefore we will start with them.
Psycho is interesting as he is clearly improving very quickly and was desperately unlucky to fall at the final flight last time when cruising with the race surely in the bag. He has a similar profile to the 2003 Coral Cup winner Xenonphon in that he is a rapidly improving Irish 2 mile hurdler trained the plotter of all plotters, Tony Martin. I could now go on to discuss whether or not he is on a good mark etc. but there is probably little point as it looks likely that Psycho could well miss the Coral Cup and instead run in the County Hurdle. This seems to be the case because his price drifted markedly on betfair yesterday from 8/1 to 14/1, with all of the lay money hoovered up and no money wanting to back him. Therefore it looks like he is an unlikely runner. The main reason for this is probably becasue his trainer has another horse lined up for the Coral Cup - Leg Spinner.
Leg Spinner has plundered a few big handicap plots in England over the past couple of years, including last seasons Cesarewich at Nemmarket. So he clearly has plenty of class on the flat but the key question here is whether or not he is as good over hurdles. Last summer he won a decent handicap hurdle at Galway pretty easily off a mark of 105, and now he is being asked to race here off 135. That is obviously a massive rise, but he is still unexposed over hurdles and was classy on the flat so it is not inconcievable that he could go close here even after taking a hammering off the English handicapper. However it is a tall order for him to defy such a rise, and you can't help but think that 7/1 is plenty short enough considering we haven't seen him since October and it is basically a guess work as to whether he is good enough over hurdles to win off 135. If he was trained by somebody else i think he would be double his current odds. At the prices he is not one for me.
Whereas we don't know whether or not Leg Spinner is up to winning off his current hurdles mark, one horse that is surely ahead of the handicapper is Henrietta Knight's Ringaorses. This horse is fancied by many for this race after his eyecatching reappearance at Doncaster last time - and it is not hard to see why. That day just about everything that could go wrong for him went wrong. For a start it was his first run in over a year so it's unlikely that he would have been at peak. And then it must be considered that he was running over a bare minimum trip (2m3.5f) on an undemanding track on pretty fast ground, so it was always unlikely to be enough of a stamina test to see him at his best. Furthermore they only went a moderate gallop before sprinting for home from 4 out, and he was held up right out the back. He started to make progress after 4 out and was closing on the leaders but got badly hampered by a faller at the third last and had to be switched to his right, losing him a couple of lengths. Nevertheless he still made good headway going to 2 out and got to within 2 lengths of the leaders, only to get badly hampered again and this time he had to be switched even more sharply and lost at least 4 lengths on the leaders - who by this time were fairly sprinting after the moderate early pace and Ringaroses was yet to be allowed to hit his stride. It is therefore not surprising that this stout stayer got a bit outpaced going to the last. However, after jumping the final flight he really took off and finished like a train, making up at least 5 lengths on the run in to grab 2nd on the line, beaten less than 2 lengths.
So there we have it: a stayer who was facing an inadequate stamina test (short trip, flat track, quick ground, moderate pace, held up) when surely not fully wound up, and then twice got badly hampered at the most crucial stages in the race - just when he was starting to bring his stamina into play - and yet he was still able to finish a close 2nd in a really good handicap. We know it was a good handicap becasue the winner, Backbord, has won again since off a 4lb higher mark and earned himself another 8lb rise. Furthermore the 4th placed horse, Hue, also caught the eye next time when he ran really well, finished strongly over an inadequate trip to be beaten by only a length off the same mark. Also the third placed horse, Premier Dane, had been crying out for the step up in trip that he ran over at Doncaster and loves fast ground. Therefore it was clearly a strong race and despite having so many things go wrong Ringaroses was still able to go close and would surely have won with a clear passage. He is only now 2lbs higher on a mark of 136 and i'm sure that he is at least 10lbs better than that.
Furthermore there are other factors that tell me that he may be even further than 10lbs ahead of the handicapper. For a start he has always had a good reputation and connections were considering running him in the World Hurdle. Also he is bred to do the job. He is out of high class staying hurdler Rose Ravine, who has also produced two other high class staying hurdlers Cardinal Red and Frosty Canyon. There is also a piece of form from his novice hurdle days that indicates, perhaps more so that his superb run at Doncaster, that this horse is no handicapper. In December 2006 Ringaroses ran in an innocuous looking Class 3 Novice Hurdle, worth only about £6,000 to the winner, over 2m3.5f at Ascot. At the time his decisive win looked very good, but with hindsight, it looks outstanding. Why? Becasue the collateral form indicates that the race was probably stronger than the vast majortiy of Grade 1 novice hurdles. Ringaorses won impressively at Ascot with horses strung out behind - now let's take a look at the horses he beat down to fifth place - Breathing Fire, Warlord, Special Envoy and Pyleigh Lady.
Breathing Fire was a class horse in his own right and would surely have been placed in the red hot 2006 Triumph Hurdle but unfrtunately he fell at the last when finishing well. He got an impressive RPR of 145 for that run. He also went on to run second to Catch Me (RPR 138). He put in some moderate runs as well but i think he had been crying out for the step up in trip on decent ground (not surprising given how he shaped in the Triumph) that he got at Ascot and i think he ran to near his best this day. However even if people don't agree with this view, they surely can't doubt the strength of this Ascot race when they look at the subsequent runs of the horses in third, fourth and fifth.
In third place, Warlord recieved 6lbs (9lbs with Daryl Jacob's claim) from Ringaroses and was beaten 5 lengths, yet on his next run he ran over the same C&D and thrashed a good field by 10 lengths. The collateral form from this race has also worked out very well, with Sound Accord, National Trust and Best Actor strung out behind - all of whom have gone on to frank this form by running much better RPRs. This tells me that Warlord was most likely a serious animal and it's a shame that he never had the chance to show it (He fell and sadly died on his next run).
In fourth, and in receipt of 6lbs from Ringaroses, was none other than Special Envoy. He has gone on to prove himself to be one of the best staying hurdlers in the country. His presence says wonders for the form. The icing on top of this already delicious cake is provided by the fifth place horse Pyleigh Lady. She recieved 13lbs from Ringaroses at Ascot (20lbs including riders claim) and was beaten by 14 lengths - she has subsequently achieved form figures of 2221212, most recently achieivng a life time best RPR of 128 off top weight in a handicap at Wincanton.
When novice hurdles produce one or two subsequent winners it is worth sitting up and taking notice. However it will often be the case that it is merely a coincidence and it doesn't mean the winner of the initial race is anything special. But when they produce multiple winners of the callibre of these horses, all of whom recieved stacks of weight from Ringaroses in this Ascot race, it is a different story. It should also be remembered that he wll relish the extra emphasis on stamina provided by the Coral Cup. Ultimately the horse will want 3 miles, but 2m5f off a strong pace on a stiff track on decent ground will bring about stacks of improvement compared to the make up of the Doncaster race. All in all the collateral form of this Ascot race, combined with the seriously eyecatching reappearance run at Doncaster - where the form has also worked out - I think it is highly likely that Ringaroses is at least 15-20lbs ahead of the handicapper and is, off just 136, by far and away the likeliest winner of the Coral Cup.
I fully expect Ringaroses to win the race easily, and to be a serious challenger for the 2009 World Hurdle. At around the 8/1 mark, not only do i think he is the best bet of the festival, I think he provides the outstanding kind of betting opportunity that probably only comes around every few years. I have already invested in him substantially and fully expect to be vindicated. Now that we have found the winner, I think it makes sense to look for one at a bigger price as an each-way proposition.
Kicks for Free makes no appeal at around the 14/1 mark. He has been hammered by the hancdicapper for his latest win and has it all to do off 143 with what will be a big weight. Furthermore he strikes me as a fragile type who may be best when very fresh. It looks like smart novice hurdler Hold Em may go for this race too. However a mark of 138 is pretty stiff for one so inexperienced. He was well beaten by Aigle D'Or and the idea of him succesfully giving weight to horses like Leg Spinner and Ringaroses is frankly ridiculous. If his novice hurdle form entitles him to be on 138, then hindsight tells us that Ringaroses - based on the collateral form of his Ascot win - should be on 158! The likes of The Toher One, County Zen and Backbord look like they could all go for other races. The one that interests me at the fancy prices is the Hobbs Mare - Missis Potts.
Missis Potts is not obviously well treated off 132 but i am convinced that she is crying out for a step up in trip, and i think the 2m5f of the Coral Cup could bring about stacks of improvement. Last time at Newbury over 2m in the Totesport Trophy she was flat out the whole way and was badly outpaced from 4 out, but she rallied from the second last and finished with some purpose to be a never nearer sixth, beaten 8 lengths. That form was boosted by Pigeon Island's recent win, and the race was run in a quick time, so the form looks solid.
She is 1lb lower now and i think she can improve for the step up in trip, not only due to the way she shaped there but also because of her breeding. Her Dam stayed 2m4f, and Missis Potts is a half sister to Potts of Magic and Mister Potter. The latter has most of his form over about 2m4f and 2m5f, whereas even more encouragingly the former, Potts of Magic, recently came a close second over 4 miles in a handicap chase. It's true that these two horses also get more stamina from the sire than can be said for Misssis Potts, but I still think it's highly likely that she will appreciate more than 2 miles. It is also worth noting that she ran well in a bumper on her only start at Cheltenham so she should act on the course. The strength of her form, the eyecatching run last time, as well as the encouraging signals provided by the breeding, suggest that she is well worth backing each way at 33/1.
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NAP - Back Ringaroses to WIN (9/1 with Coral or 7/1 with Boylesports and Paddy Power NRNB)
NB - Back Missis Potts EACH WAY @ 33/1 (Generally)
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Thank you for reading! (or for skipping to the end and just looking at the selections!)
Cheers guys. Yes i'm sure no one was too surprised to see who i put up as the main selection! This race is becoming a bit of an obsession - can't get the horse out of my head - i just wish the days would hurry up and pass so we can get it over with and i can go down to the bank with my wheelbarrow
The appeal of Ringaroses is obvious.....but not one for me I'm afraid.
The horse has never run on a track remotely resembling Cheltenham. All his runs have exculsively been on flat courses.....so how will he handle Cheltenham.
I'm prepared to dive down the handicap a fair way, as this race will cut up big time with horse being diverted to alternate targets.
I'm holding fire on De Soto as he's been pulled up the last two outings, but as he's performed well at the past couple of festivals I'll back him if he's still entered at the 5 day mark.
otherwise the horse that has taken my interest is Native Royal of Tom Hogan. She looks absolutely ideal for the Coral Cup. A hold up horse who ran a particularly taking race against Kia Kaha and Roman Villa on Paddy Power day at Cheltenham.
She just needs a hat full to drop out to get in though.....but this looks her intended target.
My concern about Ringaroses would be that the race is a favourites graveyard. My selection is likely to be Pigeon Island as i dont think his recent win was a fluke.
The horse has never run on a track remotely resembling Cheltenham. All his runs have exculsively been on flat courses.....so how will he handle Cheltenham.
I think the necesssity of previous track form is exaggerated. Horses always have to tackle a track for the first time at some point and as far as i'm concerned Cheltenham is a pretty fair track and not the type of track that catches a lot of horses out as is often claimed. One main attribute is needed for a horse to handle Cheltenham - class. And Ringaroses has plenty of that - especially in relation to a handicap mark of 136.
Owl, i agree a class horse should be able to run well at any track. My experience of Cheltenham going back almost 40 years its its certainly a "Horses for courses" track. I always give course winners very carefull consideration.
I wish you all the luck in the world with your bet. As you know well, I am an advocate of the 'oversize' bet when the opportunity arises and I know you have stuck your neck out with this one. I won't be betting myself but will have the 'virtual' thrill of knowing that you have gone for it. _________________ RJI
Ringaroses will miss next week's Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival after suffering an injury setback.
The seven-year-old was the 7-1 second favourite with the sponsor for the two-mile-five-furlong heat after finishing second at Doncaster last time.
However, trainer Henrietta Knight has ruled out a run at the Festival and Ringaroses now faces an indefinite spell on the sidelines.
She said: "Ringaroses has pulled a muscle in his hind-quarters and will not be running next week.
"We will have to wait and see (about Aintree) as muscles can take a while to come right again."
The Tony Martin-trained Leg Spinner is the 6-1 favourite with Coral for the race.
I had £30 on this nag as well and was greedy so went for the 9\1 antepost rather than the 7\1 NRNB!!! What a shame as would have been great to see him run at the festival
great stuff there Owl; i like the idea of a 33/1 Hobbs horse.... Missis potts could be a real live outsider for this _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
Had a bit on NRNB but then again I'd backed him early on for the World Hurdle and I think the Sun Alliance as well just incase he changed buses. I probably backed him for the National as well
One day mate, one day, both Ossmoses and Ringaroses will pay the loyalty back.
_________________ Not as naive as some, but happy.
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