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Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Foxhunter Preview - Aunty Jen's Hopeless Cases
THE FOXHUNTERS – FRIDAY 14 MARCH 1600
After the Gold Cup……
But don’t imagine that this race is simply a “curtain closer” to the Gold Cup. For these trainers, owners and riders (especially the amateur trainers and owners), this race is one of the two great highlights of the year, along with the Aintree Foxhunters run over the National fences in April. They will be all out to win, and everything will be trying!
3m2. Gold Cup course. Amateur riders only.
You can read the qualification conditions on the Hunter Chase thread, if you so wish. Each horse must also have been hunted “regularly and fairly” with a recognised hunt, or be owned by a member of the various point to point clubs (Point to Point Owners and Riders Association, Countryside Alliance Club) and so on, and hold a “Master’s Certificate” to prove it.
Run at level weights (12st), 7lbs mares allowance and claims count, so it’s worth assessing the horses with at least a glance at the claims (if any) of the riders, none of whom have been declared yet.
The ground will probably be good/soft or good, but most of the entries will have run on all sorts of ground, so ground preference probably does not play too big a part – still, it’s useful to have a look at past ground preferences, if any, nevertheless.
More important is the configuration of the course and the stiffness of the Cheltenham fences. Point to Point fences are probably not as challenging as regulation ones, particularly in Ireland, where they tend to be “soft”, at least at some venues, so any horse who has not done reasonably well in hunter chases or under Rules, may have questions about his/her jumping over what must be, on any reckoning, one of the most challenging steeplechase courses anywhere, particularly remembering undulations and the placing of the fences.
There is a bit of a “competition” going on between the professional trainers and the amateurs. So the amateurs will be trying extra hard this year!
Stats are not enormously helpful in this race, but here is a summary:
In the last 10 years
3 winners were 9, 2 were 7, 2 were 10, and 1 each were 13, 11 and 6. So a marginal preference for 9-y-os, and older horses did better than younger.
2 trainers have won it twice – Paul Nicholls and Richard Barber. Others with 1 apiece were Jonjo O’Neill, Raymond Hurley, Mrs Alner, R Tate, John “Mad” Manners, Caroline Bailey.
Winner rated highest (RPR) – Earthmover (1998 – 159). Winner rated lowest – Whyso Mayo (2006) – 126. Horses qualified through Points only usually though not always get the lowest rating (eg this year – Arctic Times, with three point wins on the trot this season – 112. Thisthatandtother – win and place in hunter chases – 147). In fact, ratings do not really give anything away in this (for example, Bon Accord, who won the Intermediate Championship at Cheltenham last year, and has won a hunter chase and a point this season is rated 101, and Dante’s Back, who came second to him in that race, is rated 9. However, the lowest rated winner at 126 (Whyso Mayo) indicates that historically at least a rating over 120 is probably necessary to be in with a chance.
Abandoning ratings (thank God!), first of all, which potentially good horses aren’t entered? This list includes The Man from Slatt, Aboo Who, General Striker, Red Brook Lad, Whyso Mayo, Something Small (lost my bet on him, then!), Sleeping Night, Take The Stand, Moscow Maui, The Bajan Bandit, First Down Jets, Beautiful Sound and Big Zoomo.
Drombeag, last year’s winner, is entered, but has not run this season. Thisthatandtother is doubtful. So by a process of elimination, who do I think is in with a decent chance?
In alphabetical (not market) order, these are
(RPR/Topspeed ratings are indicated by xxx/yyy).
Agus a Vic is a very consistent pointer/hunter chaser in Ireland. Rated 128/128 but my doubts about him are that he has no experience round Cheltenham, which can count for a lot
Bon Accord has an excellent record (five wins on the trot in points and hunter chases) but probably does not have the speed for this – jumping is great, though! (101/85). Has won at Cheltenham
Christy Beamish has form that is a bit in and out, his PU in a hunter chase last season, and his F in a point this, would make me a bit wary (130/108). Runner up to Katarino in the Aintree Foxhunters last season, had a break, and won his last two points and his latest hunter chase. Probably more suited by a flat track, but worth considering. Tailed off in last years’ renewal
Cornish Rebel has some very decent Rules form, but that was a while ago now, and he has been unable to get his head in front in two hunter chases this season (116/61). His ratings reflect that, and I would avoid. Has won round Cheltenham, though, and 16th in the Gold Cup in 2006
Drombeag has not run in any race, point or hunter chase, for nearly a year, and may not turn up in any case (if he does, avoid as race fitness is crucial for this, unless he has been working extraordinarily well at home and O’Neill is keeping him covered up) (124/135)
Dante’s Back I like very much, but he is probably not nearly good enough to win this (98/84), so a bit of a slowcoach, though his running in the Intermediate Championship won last year by Bon Accord gave me much to think about and he has got round Cheltenham well (though over a furlong less and on the New Course)
French Thyne is another Irish entry, who has been reasonably consistent in points and hunter chases over there this year. If he takes to Cheltenham (which is the big question) I think he has a good chance (112/106)
Irilut has always been there or thereabouts, and he is also very consistent in points (2,2,1,2,2) this season, but the Waley-Cohens may prefer to take him to Aintree (no ratings as has not run under Rules for ages)
Lord of Illusion of Tom George’s has had a reasonably active and successful Rules career, but he has only won once (in a point) this season, adding a second in a hunter chase, and previously a 7 and PU. Does have the quality to go well (109/92), but has been on the downgrade, and I don’t see him figuring in this
Lou du Moulin Mas is the “other” Nicholls runner, with two hunter chase wins under his belt this season, and a real chance on this form and his previous Rules performances (133/102), which include three runs in the Kim Muir, so experience round Cheltenham
The Man from Highworth again has no ratings, but is a definite maybe! He won two points in storming fashion earlier this season, and is trained by “Mad” Manners, who won this race with Cavalero, off an RPR of 137, back in 2000. I wouldn’t mind betting Manners is trying all he can to repeat the trick (Cavalero was returned at 16/1, and that is around the price you could get about The Man from Highworth a couple of days ago!)
Natiain is another who has not been out this season, and although point and hunter chase form is good, for that reason I would not back him (112/103)
Risk Accessor, the other O’Neill entry, looks a decent animal with four wins on the bounce in hunter chases this season already, and of course some good Rules form earlier as well. If O’Neill runs Drombeag as well, look out for this one! (134/130); but although experienced round Cheltenham, has also fallen 3 times there
Thisthatandtother is doubtful according to Nicholls at a preview night. He came back from his odds-on defeat sore and may not make the line-up. If he does, an excellent chance mainly on his Rules form (147/142)
Tribal Venture is another recruit from Rules, and has been running very well recently, hacking up in a hunter chase at Ludlow, and again more recently at Warwick. He’s been round Cheltenham a good few times in handicaps (and in the cross-country) and fell in the Ryanair in 2005. Seems to have found his metier, and I certainly wouldn’t rule him out (129/104)
Twenty Degrees has been having a nice run of form lately, her trainer (Alison Dare) is very experienced in this field, and has worked the oracle after the horse came from Gary Moores’ yard. Again he is one I wouldn’t rule out by any means (124/100). No form round Cheltenham, though.
I have already backed
Tribal Venture
Something Small (n/r)
Twenty Degrees
The Man from Highworth
French Thyne
Who will win? No idea!
But if I were to make any recommendations (on the understanding that Thisthatandtother is unlikely to run) they would be Lou du Moulin Mas (win only), Tribal Venture and Risk Accessor (both e/w). The Man from Highworth is a sentiment bet, in a way.
Posted: Fri Feb 29, 2008 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Foxhunter Preview - Aunty Jen's Hopeless Cases
jennywales wrote:
But don’t imagine that this race is simply a “curtain closer” to the Gold Cup. For these trainers, owners and riders (especially the amateur trainers and owners), this race is one of the two great highlights of the year, along with the Aintree Foxhunters run over the National fences in April. They will be all out to win, and everything will be trying!
Hear hear! Very well said :thumleft:
Great write up! I enjoy this race as much as the Gold Cup
Sue
Last edited by suejoe on Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
I have only just noticed (probably because I was "elsewhere" the last days!) that neither Thisthatandtother nor Risk Accessor have been declared for the Foxhunter as of this morning (may have happened earlier, but I had no way of finding out!!)
I have NO idea about the foxhunters but have done well so far at the festival with only 2 races left after this one I have put £30 E/W @ 12/1 on Man from Highworth for my son so all winnings will go to him.
Chose this horse because when i was younger used to ... with a girl from Highworth _________________ Forest are Treemendous
I have NO idea about the foxhunters but have done well so far at the festival with only 2 races left after this one I have put £30 E/W @ 12/1 on Man from Highworth for my son so all winnings will go to him.
Chose this horse because when i was younger used to ... with a girl from Highworth
She was not that nice anyway, personality wise that is _________________ Forest are Treemendous
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. However, the lowest rated winner at 126 (Whyso Mayo) indicates that historically at least a rating over 120 is probably necessary to be in with a chance.
with a girl from Highworth
