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Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 2:49 am Post subject: Shortlists for the Non-Handicap Races
Hello everyone just thought I'd post up the work I have been doing today which is to shortlist horses for the non-handicap races that have already shown the requisite level of form to win a typical example of the race in question (please note this is only based on current season form). Ranking the relative strength of the form is the first step for me in making betting decisions.
I am not including all the notes I have made as that would take too long. However, following a quick scan of them, it is clear that the state of the going is going to have a big say in the outcome of many of the races.
I'll just put them down in the order that I did them. Here goes:
Champion Hurdle:
1.Harchibald - failings well known, capable of very high level
2.Straw Bear - AP McCoy essential
3.Osana
4.Sizing Europe
5.Katchit
Arkle:
1.Big Bucks - cut needed
2.Mahogany Blaze - good ground
3.Tidal Bay - trip?
4.Ring the Boss - experience, going
5.Krugyrova
6.Noland
Supreme Novices:
1.Khyber Kim - prefer slower going
2.Alsadaa - good or faster
3.Cork All Star - improve jumping technique
4.Ashkazar - 4yo
Ballymore Properties:
1.Aigle D'Or - won key trial
2.Breedsbreeze
3.Cooldine
4.The Tother One
5.Trafford Lad
RSA Chase:
1. Tidal Bay - no evidence for distance
2. Big Zeb - trip
3. Silverburn
1.Franchoek - well clear
2.Celestial Halo - soft
3.Ashkazar
Albert Bartlett:
1.Cooldine
2.Trafford Lad
3.The Tother One
Gold Cup:
1.Kauto Star
2.Exotic Dancer
3.Halcon Genelardais
4.Tamarinbleu
5.The Listener
Phardy3s' excellent trends thread will be very useful indeed in sorting these and the going will be crucial (e.g on soft I would prefer Khyber Kim and on good or faster it would be Alsadaa).
Now some of these will not run or will run in other races. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how many shortlists produce the winner.
I still have the amateur riders races to look at but will leave that til nearer.
Quick conclusions:
Harchibald looks to be very hard to keep out of the frame if running to form and could easily be a very impressive winner if they go a suicidal pace
Franchoek head and shoulders clear on form so far
Tamarinbleu very strong in the Ryan Air (Listener ground dependent)
Kauto Star virtually unbeatable on anything other than very testing going
RSA Chase, Albert Bartlett, Arkle and Supreme Novices races all very tight with no outstanding candidates on form in any of them and unappealing for betting purposes
Inglis Drever is the banker of the meeting
Thoughts are slowly crystalising... _________________ RJI
Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:15 am Post subject: Re: Shortlists for the Non-Handicap Races
Really not sure where you got Harchibald being an impressive winner from?? With Meade's stable form and Meade's cheltenham record he has very little chance of winning in my opinion, I would say he is a place lay.
You have also put in Katchit? I thought you had him as a 20/1 chance and thought Blythe Knight would beat him, so where's blythe knight then?
RightJudgeIam wrote:
Hello everyone just thought I'd post up the work I have been doing today which is to shortlist horses for the non-handicap races that have already shown the requisite level of form to win a typical example of the race in question (please note this is only based on current season form). Ranking the relative strength of the form is the first step for me in making betting decisions.
I am not including all the notes I have made as that would take too long. However, following a quick scan of them, it is clear that the state of the going is going to have a big say in the outcome of many of the races.
I'll just put them down in the order that I did them. Here goes:
Champion Hurdle:
1.Harchibald - failings well known, capable of very high level
2.Straw Bear - AP McCoy essential
3.Osana
4.Sizing Europe
5.Katchit
Arkle:
1.Big Bucks - cut needed
2.Mahogany Blaze - good ground
3.Tidal Bay - trip?
4.Ring the Boss - experience, going
5.Krugyrova
6.Noland
Supreme Novices:
1.Khyber Kim - prefer slower going
2.Alsadaa - good or faster
3.Cork All Star - improve jumping technique
4.Ashkazar - 4yo
Ballymore Properties:
1.Aigle D'Or - won key trial
2.Breedsbreeze
3.Cooldine
4.The Tother One
5.Trafford Lad
RSA Chase:
1. Tidal Bay - no evidence for distance
2. Big Zeb - trip
3. Silverburn
1.Franchoek - well clear
2.Celestial Halo - soft
3.Ashkazar
Albert Bartlett:
1.Cooldine
2.Trafford Lad
3.The Tother One
Gold Cup:
1.Kauto Star
2.Exotic Dancer
3.Halcon Genelardais
4.Tamarinbleu
5.The Listener
Phardy3s' excellent trends thread will be very useful indeed in sorting these and the going will be crucial (e.g on soft I would prefer Khyber Kim and on good or faster it would be Alsadaa).
Now some of these will not run or will run in other races. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how many shortlists produce the winner.
I still have the amateur riders races to look at but will leave that til nearer.
Quick conclusions:
Harchibald looks to be very hard to keep out of the frame if running to form and could easily be a very impressive winner if they go a suicidal pace
Franchoek head and shoulders clear on form so far
Tamarinbleu very strong in the Ryan Air (Listener ground dependent)
Kauto Star virtually unbeatable on anything other than very testing going
RSA Chase, Albert Bartlett, Arkle and Supreme Novices races all very tight with no outstanding candidates on form in any of them and unappealing for betting purposes
I think the lists only show those with form this year that would be good enough to win a typical race. This is why BK isn't listed.
Sky
exactly...this list only takes into account current season form.
Topspeed ratings are indeed part of the basis for the list (and that's why Denman is not included for instance).
Anyway, stilll need to sort them for matching the criteria and trends for each race.
As I said in the original post, the comments attached are only my own 'internal dialogue' expressed in words and I don't feel any need to justify them. If anyone disagrees with what I say that is just because their internal dialogue is different.
These shortlists may change in the run up to the Festival in any case. _________________ RJI
YY I see we have some agreement in a lot of races which I think is a good sign.
I particularly wanted to ask you about Over the Creek in the NH Chase. I have given him serious consideration, however he is set to carry 12 stone. The weights are dtermined by the number and type of races won over the season. Jonjo is a master of placing horses for this race such that they don't accrue the maximum penalty and most of the winners fit that profile. This is the only reason I have not put OTC on my list.. I feel at least one of the other trainers have kept their horses from winning in order to get in with 11-11 or 11-7.
My main reason is that he is the only horse to have won over the course in the whole race, obviously if you take the ratings at face value then Ornais is the horse they have to beat becuase he would be much worse off in a handicap. It is not really a race i get too stuck into have done one single bet on Over The Creek at the moment and that is it will add 2 others come the day wether that is Ornais + 1 other or just simply 2 others i am not sure _________________ Forest are Treemendous
YY- would be interested to hear why you think Blazing Bailey can reverse the form with Inglis Drever?
Not sure he will but i think he is the only horse that has a good chance of beating him and ID stable still has not proved they are fully back to normal & one is 5/4 the other 6/1 and probaly more than 5/4 TBP _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: Shortlists for the Non-Handicap Races
RightJudgeIam wrote:
Hello everyone just thought I'd post up the work I have been doing today which is to shortlist horses for the non-handicap races that have already shown the requisite level of form to win a typical example of the race in question (please note this is only based on current season form). Ranking the relative strength of the form is the first step for me in making betting decisions.
I am not including all the notes I have made as that would take too long. However, following a quick scan of them, it is clear that the state of the going is going to have a big say in the outcome of many of the races.
I'll just put them down in the order that I did them. Here goes:
Champion Hurdle:
1.Harchibald - failings well known, capable of very high level
2.Straw Bear - AP McCoy essential
3.Osana
4.Sizing Europe
5.Katchit
Arkle:
1.Big Bucks - cut needed
2.Mahogany Blaze - good ground
3.Tidal Bay - trip?
4.Ring the Boss - experience, going
5.Krugyrova
6.Noland
Supreme Novices:
1.Khyber Kim - prefer slower going
2.Alsadaa - good or faster
3.Cork All Star - improve jumping technique
4.Ashkazar - 4yo
well back in Feb I shortlisted the 1st, 2nd and 5th in the CH and the 1,2,3 in the Arkle...
changed the list for the Supreme when I found AP was riding Binocular..
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