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geordie_racer

THE RYANAIR CHASE (“THE FESTIVAL TROPHY”)
2m 5f; Class A Grade 1 Chase
Thursday 13 March 2008, (2nd race)

For a number of years I had always wanted the Festival to include a championship race over 2 ½ miles or thereabouts, as I felt that such a race would be worthy of “championship” status and would not diminish the standing of either the Champion chase or the gold Cup.

I addition, I confess I also wanted a race for Native Upmanship to win at the festival s I absolutely loved that horse, but he was never quite quick enough to win the 2 miler and didn’t stay the Gold Cup distance.

Sadly, of course, this event came along too late in the day for him. Although he did run in the inaugural running of the race as an 11 year old, being pulled up.

This race, of course, replaced the old Cathcart chase, run over the same distance but only open to first and second season chasers. The Trophy is open to all horses over 5 years old.

The race has been well received by trainers, and of course there are a number of big races round Cheltenham throughout the season over 2m4 or 5 including the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the New Year Chase.

As this is only the fourth running of the race, trends are difficult to identify.

The first winner (when the race was sponsored by the “Daily Express”) was the Paul Nicholls trained Thisthatandt’other , a 9 year old who carried 11st 3 and won at 9/2. OR was 155 and the ground was officially “good”.

In 2006 there was an emotional win for Fondmort, from the ever popular Nicky Henderson yard. Fondmort was such a popular winner, having been sent of the 100/30 joint favourite [he had been runner up the year before] under 11 stone. A 10 year old he had an Official rating of 157 and the ground was again officially “good”.

last year saw a triumph for the younger French-bred contingent as Taranis gave Paul Nicholls his second winner at the event. This talented 6 year old won at 9/2 on good to soft ground and had an official rating of 152.

Of course these stats all relate to the race as Grade 2 chase. Last year Taranis only just held off Our Vic, who with an OR of1 170 is the highest rated horse to have taken part in the race so far. Our Vic lost by a neck, giving Taranis 5 pounds, but this year they would of course be off level weights.

The current market leaders for this race are [best prices I could find]

6/1 Mossbank, Our Vic
7/1 My Way de Solzen
8/1 Jack the Giant, Tamarinbleu
10/1 The Listener, Monet’s Garden
12/1 L’Antatique, Master Minded
14/1 Don’t Push It
16/1 Another Promise, Hobbs Hill, Aces four, Star De Mohaison

our fellow board members have given some opinions on this race on it’s own thread, and we can identify the follownig suggestions

Mossbank; David (“will hack up”); Tommy

Our Vic; Dom and Swagger, but “surely will run in the Gold Cup” (The GoingStick)

L’Antartique ; Tommy

My Way De Solzen; Dom, Jayfle, Tommy

The Listener; Tommy (“if good, good to soft in places”)

Don’t Push It; Owl

Turko; Lochsong

Aces Four Tommy (“jumping from the front”)

Monet’s Garden Tagalie (“will go straight to Aintree”-Rammy)

Jack the Giant; Swagger

Fair Along; Swagger

Having looked at the three previous runnings [with the caveat, of course of a change in conditions for this race], I can identify the following

All 3 winners have been rated in the 150s
All 3 winners had had one previous run in the new year
All 3 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
All 3 winners had previously won over 2m4 or 2m5

Looking at those market leaders and board tips on that basis we have the following

For each horse I have given a rating in brackets, followed by Y or N, for [in order]
run already this year [none have run twice by the way]
won over 2m 4 or 5
won at Cheltenham

Mossbank [151] NNN
Our Vic [165] YYY
My Way DS [159] NYY
Jack The Giant [151] YYY ***
Tamarinbleu [159] YYY ***
The Listener ?170] NYY
Monets Garden [166] NNN
L’Antartique [146] NYY
MasterMinded [145] YNN
Don’t Push It [127] YNN
Turko [150} NYN
Aces four [157] NNN
Fair along [154] NNY
Star de mohaison [153] YYY ***

(the Litener hasn't got an up to date rating, that's an old one)

So on the basis of known trends Jack the giant and Tamarinbleu look the most liekly winners and are currently trading at 6/1 and 8/1 respectively, with the danger being the unloved [no-oneon the board has named him] Star de Mohaison.

Of those two, however, I think Tamarinbleu has more appeal as he could turn in to a real star. His last win, at Ascot, was over 2m1 on very sodft ground when he demolished twist magic and his previous win was of course over the course and distance in the Boylesports. The only horse he was giving weight to that day was Knowhere [which is exactly where he was, pulled up that day, but of course he ahs won well since]. If he ruins in this,he is my idea of the winner.

I still like Star de Mohaison, though, and if he is OK coming back after his long absence I think he could prove the value bet in this race. I would like some bulletin on his well being [and a run would be good] before investing.

The other horse well down the betting [at least 25/1] is vodka bleu. He has a lowish rating [138] but his last win was over course and distance in the New year’s Day Handicap, when he was a nice winner ahead of Patman De Charmil who was getting a little bit of weight. I think that was a decent performance and the way Vodka Bleu travelled and handled the Cheltenham fences was a testament to the benefits of headgear on some horses [he was pathetic, frankly, in the Paddy Power].

One of the great difficulties this race throws up, of course, is knowing what will run in it! Vodka Bleu may well run in this though (I can’t see an obvious other race for him) and at longish odds he could well be worth a little punt.

MY CURRENT SUGGESTIONS

3 pt win Tamarinbleu @ 8/1

1pt e/w Vodka bleu @ 25/1

Further thoughts to follow
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Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"

geordie_racer · Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:32 pm Post subject:

bump
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Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"

Saint Alebe · Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:01 am Post subject:

Great write up mate, As you say the hardest thing at the moment is working out who will go for the race!!
It will be interesting to see who Pipe actually runs in. Tamarinbleu seems to be his main QMCC horse, with Our Vic his RyanAir horse. It would be very eye catching if he ran Vodka Bleu instead.
As soon as it goes NRNB I will be having a bet in this race but wont be risking it until then (unless STM is a silly price)

Owl of Minerva · Group Performer Joined: 08 Nov 2006 Posts: 10052

GR i agree with yuor two selections (along with DPI) but like SA says, it looks more likely that Tamarinbleu will go for the QMCC. I am a big fan of the horse but will only be interested in backing him if he went for the Ryanair. So 3pts win @ 8/1 may not be a good idea until bookies go NRNB. If 8/1 is still around when they go NRNB then i think he is well worth backing.

Vodka Bleu is the outsider i like too. Now that the blinkers have galvanised him, he could have any amount on improvement still as he won a good handicap very easily last time. But David Johnson already has Our Vic to go for this race so i think VB might go for the Racing Post Plate instead. Again i would be interested in him but only on NRNB basis.

Don't Push It will surely go for this if he is fit but the fact that there is still no sign of him and the state of JJ's yard means he makes less appeal with each passing day.

So at this stage i have no clue on this race due to the above doubts!

Owl

L.C. · Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:15 pm Post subject:

Geordie - Many thanks for the write up, very informative, very interesting. I dont really tend to bet ante-post, so will keep this for much nearer the time

Cheers

LC

Swagger · Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:48 pm Post subject:

Great write up so far GR - are there any horses i didn't mention for the race

Regards.
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www.kierenfallon.co.uk

geordie_racer · Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject:

Tagalie · Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2008 1:14 pm Post subject:

Thanks for that, geordie. I thought about backing Tamarinbleu e-w a few weeks back, but annoyingly didn't. He will surely run a big race in whichever he's put in; uncertainty over his entry is surely the only negative against backing him at this stage.

Question marks about most of those in the betting make it an unattractive punting race for me: Monet's can't be backed with too much confidence down South, Our Vic is a place bet only, the interesting entries like Don't Push It and Fair Along haven't been seen in ages, couldn't touch MWDS until there's some evidence he's the horse we saw last year etc.
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Known as the catch of the camp.

RightJudgeIam · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 8:57 pm Post subject:

Geordie

I'm with you and I reckon Tamarinbleu is incredibly well in here. I'm praying he runs here as I will be having more than 3 points on for sure. He has now been taken out of the Gold Cup yet remains in the Queen Mum (will scupper best laid plans for me if he goes the 2 mile route).

And I am seriously worried that he will go for the Champion as the stable has Our Vic in the Ryan Air. I'm hoping he's working like a donkey and sulking at home so that Tamarinbleu comes here.

Fingers crossed!
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RJI

geordie_racer · Posted: Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:17 pm Post subject:

judge; the hardest part at the moment is knowing who will run in which race

thats why i am not maximum on tamarinbleu
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Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"

phardy3 · Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:20 pm Post subject:

geordie_racer · Posted: Sat Feb 23, 2008 11:58 am Post subject:

Rammy · Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject:

Jack the Giant will miss this, he is reportedly out for the season.

geordie_racer · Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:57 pm Post subject:

as Betfred and Bet365 have now gone non-runner no bet I have taken 5 points Tamarinbleu, max bet, 8/1 betfred

I think the others ahead of him n the betting are either beatable or unlikely to run, and with NRNB I feel confident.

I will reasses the market for this race later in the week, Tamarinbleu has drifted from 8/1 to 10/1 since I picked him oout at the start of this thread [although I can't say why] so I now have 8 points at 8/1 of which 5 is nrnb.
_________________
Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"

Saint Alebe · Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2008 9:59 am Post subject:

I have backed TURKO nrnb for this as he will be nicholls only runner and this would have been his target all season. Has a similar profile to Taranis. Didnt seem to enjoy the RSA last year but is now a year older and looked good at sandown. He has a course record of 2,6,2,2,7 so acts on the track. Better ground suits and he defo wont be 10\1 come the day. Swagger is also keen on this fella. Should give us a run for our money.