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The LUFCwaffe · Group Performer Joined: 02 Jan 2007 Posts: 2174

We've now seen a couple of the chief candidates run recently now.

Black Jack Ketchum was put into a race (Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle, Wetherby, 3rd Nov) that he was expected to win, and duely obliged....though just

and now (Chelt, Handicap Hurdle, 17th Nov) Blazing Bailey has run in a handicap off 163. The horse that won, Sonnyanjoe, only just made the handicap proper, and its likely that even at the age of 9 this is an improving horse. So given the nature of the way the race was run with the eventual winner dominating from the front, there was only ever going to be one outcome.

I thought the way Choc Thornton on Blazing Bailey handled the race today was very sensible. He could have done the horse no favours in trying to chase a lost cause when a horse sitting on 10st kicked for home a mile from home. Sonnyanjoe lasted the trip very well considering he was given a tough task.

Blazing Bailey lost nothing today, as he'd have needed to post a RPR of 170+ to have won from the position he was in coming down the back straight so with some of the bookies pushing him out to 14/1.....I'd say that's very generous given the lack of genuine 160+ rated 3m hurdlers that'll be at the Festival come March. One to keep sticking in the a/p portfolio.

though I will look out with interest for Mister Hights plans this winter.

david-uk · Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2007 8:31 pm Post subject:

Have to say I thought Blazing Bailey was beaten at least a mile from home, not a good trial for the World Hurdle and I will start to look for a second horse to back for that race.

supersov · Handicapper Joined: 15 Jun 2006 Posts: 390

Bailey was unsaddled on the course but looked sound. Choc stated that he got his tongue over the bit which didnt help and that he would be back.

S

RightJudgeIam · Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:24 pm Post subject:

Amazing as it would be, a sound Inglis Drever would be a strong fancy for this given a bit of juice in the ground. Can't possibly be considered as an ante-post bet though.

I'm expecting big things of Kasbah Bliss in the next couple of years but he definitely needs softish going
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RJI

The LUFCwaffe · Group Performer Joined: 02 Jan 2007 Posts: 2174

Dave

My Way De Solzen was beaten in the West Yorkshire Hurdle last year. It didn't stop him going on to better things during the year.

Trying to win a handicap off 163, which was what Blazing Bailey was asked to do, is a bit false at this stage of the season, as the horse is hardly at his peak for the season.

Francois Doumen made the mistake of putting a race like this to Baracouda a few years ago, and that took the shine off him for the festival.

Alan King is no mug, and I'm sure that was merely a blow out for Blazing Bailey. Much in the same was as MWDS at Wetherby last year.

The 14/1 looks good value, as there'll be only 3 or 4 horses that can win the Stayers in March.

Swagger · Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 1:27 am Post subject:

I have thought since the end of last season that only 3 horses can win next years World Hurdle;

Wichita Lineman - Wait until nearer the race before i add him to my portfolio.
Kasbah Bliss - Already Backed around 46/1
Blazing Bailey - Backed at 14/1 (great price like you say). I thought he hurdled well in the main yesterday, his price is stable on betfair around 12/1 so there doesn't appear to be anything wrong with the horse, and was eased heavily when beaten. King has stated his season is about one race, the World Hurdle, so why over exert him in a gash handicap giving 2 stone away.

Inglis Drever is a great horse but i can't see him winning it for a third time, especially after Howard Johnson's comments earlier this season, which were negative to say the least about his chances, and his run at Aintree towards the backend of last season.

Regards.

david-uk · Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:30 am Post subject:

Yeah fair enough Kev,

But it just looked too bad mate, he was 9/4 fav, shorely the vibes from the yard would have affected the market if it was a blow out, but he was backed back into 9/4 from 11/4 at a place like cheltenham, that takes proper money.

RightJudgeIam · Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:37 am Post subject:

jayfle · Group Performer Joined: 06 Jul 2007 Posts: 1093

Just backed Wichita Lineman at 5/1. Really impressed by himlast year and think he will throughly improve.I know that AP loves this horse and thinks the world of him.

Rowan · Group Performer Joined: 27 May 2006 Posts: 8820

jetcrowts · Listed Winner Joined: 04 Apr 2006 Posts: 818

Backed HE at 16's each way on Friday, can't see anything to beat him after his performance this weekend.

Jet........
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"there is no way anything is going to Katchit"

The LUFCwaffe · Group Performer Joined: 02 Jan 2007 Posts: 2174

jetcrowts · Listed Winner Joined: 04 Apr 2006 Posts: 818

His age is against him however the step up in distance should take the edge off his loss of speed.

Baracouda was a 3 miler in his pomp so age deterioration was always going to be more of a factor.

Like humans are horses and many good middle distance runners make up to long distance runners in later life eg. Gabresalaisse, Radcliffe. They lose there speed but not their ability and fighting spirit.

Jet..........
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"there is no way anything is going to Katchit"

Hampton · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:37 am Post subject:

RightJudgeIam · Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 2:41 pm Post subject: