forum.sports-pro.co.uk

[Please Register and Login to this forum to stop seeing this advertising.]

[SkankyMinga]

ALL WEATHER?!

If those that love their sand racing will forgive me for saying so, I was of the obvious misconception that “all weather” meant “in any conditions” not entire domination of the racing media – as in Lingfield is all we can talk about today.

I can’t get excited about this Winter Derby – it doesn’t even take place in the bloody winter for heavens sake! Not a proper Group 1 horse in sight either.

Yet you could be forgiven for thinking that this is the only race being staged today. If you go on the ATR site, you can find Matt Doyle’s “big race” verdict, speed ratings and video archives. If that’s not enough, the “Catt cast” previews the three big races on the Lingfield card???? Racing Post online is only concerned with the sand “classic” while even good old sportinglife.com can’t find a word to say about any other meeting.

Newbury anybody?!

I was going to descend into a fit of pique and refuse to write a column as a protest – that would have been a relief, wouldn’t it? However, instead I will try and balance things out a bit – even if that means picking the odd horse at a shorter price than I would ordinarily go for!

Today’s bets

2.25 Newbury – Without A Doubt (25-1 generally)
3.30 Newbury – Wyldello
5.05 Newbury – Helen’s Vision

Without A Doubt must be something of a freak, given that he has flat breeding on both sides of his pedigree yet managed to run respectably in the four miler at Cheltenham as a 7-y-o. He has been given time to get over his exertions in the Racing Post Chase and, as long as his confidence is unaffected, he probably did himself a favour bowing out of that proverbial war of attrition at the 14th. It promises to be a bit drier on the chase course than the hurdles track at Newbury and this will probably be the best ground that the horse has encountered for a long time (albeit that he does have winning form on soft). The flat galloping track and largish field should suit ideally and I reckon this constitutes a good each way bet against the likely-favourite Alderburn.

I have long been of the opinion that top weights in high-class handicaps start at bigger odds than they should, so I’m all over Wyldello in the 3.30. In weight terms, it could easily be suggested that Wyldello is paying the penalty for her consistency – she’s never been out of the first three in seven starts. Her third behind Duc ce Regniere and Battle Cry at Kempton last time reads like good form. Being from the family of Le Bavard, she is a stayer in the making and seems certain to be better suited by the galloping open spaces of Newbury than the tight track at Sunbury.

Finally, we all know (well, I think we do) that the betting is the best guide for the bumpers, so, if Helen’s Vision takes a walk in the market, you might want to ignore this selection. However, I’m staggered that any progeny of Alflora can make such an impression at tight tracks such as Huntingdon (second on debut on ground probably faster than ideal) and Stratford (completely ran away from a big field to score by 17 lengths. This is another horse that should be ideally suited to Newbury (can you see a pattern forming here?) and I shall be betting accordingly!

I wish you all a happy and profitable punting Saturday.

The Thinker!

---

_________________
ROLL OF HONOUR
WINNER - 2006 WORLD CUP FANTASY FOOTBALL COMP
WINNER - 2007 CHELTENHAM COMP
JOINT WINNER - 2007 CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST COMP
WINNER - NEW YEARS EVE 2007 DAILY COMP
WINNER - 2008 CHELTENHAM COMP
WINNER - 2008 AINTREE COMP
WINNER - EURO 2008 TAIKAI GROUP MATCH BETTING COMP
WINNER - 2008\2009 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE COMP
WINNER - 2010 PUNCHESTOWN\SANDOWN COMP (TBC)