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Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: Triumph Hurdle
I'm quite keen on Indian Groom for this, he travelled and jumped really well in his first race. The form of his maiden win has worked out well and connections said he'd improve for his run, 33/1 seems like a reasonable price at this stage of the season.
I will be interested to see where the Nicholls mare R De Rien Sivola is targeted - I was impressed with the Chepstow run and looked one to improve with racing. _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
When these Juvenile hurdlers win you need some form to come from the race after, Indian Grooms race sems to be holding up well with the 4th winning and Black Jacari running well at the weekend as does what i think is the best performance so far by a Juvenile in the Irish horse Lethal Weapon in which the 3rd & 4th from his race have since finished 1st & 2nd in a pretty competative race, the time was also reasonable that day in relative terms and he was a 90 rated horse on the flat so has a bit of class anyway.
Nicholls R De Rien Sivola did look impresive but the time was nothing special so until some of her form gets a boost it remains to be seen how good that race was especially as it was at Chepstow where alot of horses can run below there best _________________ Forest are Treemendous
I agree about Chepstow - for form purposes I am very cautious about Chepstow races as a "benchmark". It is a fair course and is more "like" Cheltenham (undulating left-handed) than quite a few others, but for some reason horses either really like it and have a strong preference for it which is not shown up in runs on other courses, or they underperform and then are a surprise package when they do run over a course that suits better.
Also, the going should very rarely have the word "good" in the description - it is very gluey (on clay) and is more holding than most other courses, whch also affects overt form.
I have been going to Chepstow for a few years now, and I probably wouldn't use Chepstow as a serious indicator of collateral form.
Lethal Weapon goes for the first @ Cork tomorrow and the only problem i can see him having is with the ground as he was a good/fm ground horse on the flat, I have had a bit more on today for the Triumph as If he goes ahead and wins this tomorrow i can see him being cut to as low as 10/1 especially if he does it well. Ruby's mount with all the allowance's is probably the main danger with all 3 of the other main contenders having penalty's _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Obviously there are going to be horses that have not run yet that will be in the Triumph but it is going to take an exceptional horse to beat this one that was vey Impressive for a Juvenile _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Obviously there are going to be horses that have not run yet that will be in the Triumph but it is going to take an exceptional horse to beat this one that was vey Impressive for a Juvenile
I've just backed him at 25/1 with Bet365 - seems too big
Obviously there are going to be horses that have not run yet that will be in the Triumph but it is going to take an exceptional horse to beat this one that was vey Impressive for a Juvenile
I've just backed him at 25/1 with Bet365 - seems too big
Way to big will not be that tomorrow as said there has been nothing that has raced so far that would get near this horse and that Includes this side of the water _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Lethal Weapon (evens favourite) was cut to 20-1 from 25-1 by William Hill for the Triumph Hurdle after winning the paddypowerbingo.com 3-Y-O Hurdle.
His trainer Christy Roche said after the four-and-a-half-length win: "We are going to send him over to the Cheltenham meeting in a couple of weeks for a three-year-old hurdle.
"He's improved since his last run and Alan Crowe said he's a horse that will show more speed on better ground."
Lethal Weapon (evens favourite) was cut to 20-1 from 25-1 by William Hill for the Triumph Hurdle after winning the paddypowerbingo.com 3-Y-O Hurdle.
His trainer Christy Roche said after the four-and-a-half-length win: "We are going to send him over to the Cheltenham meeting in a couple of weeks for a three-year-old hurdle.
"He's improved since his last run and Alan Crowe said he's a horse that will show more speed on better ground."
Interesting
Thats why i think todays run was so impressive because he basically got his 90+ rating on the flat on gd/Fm ground and you can only see this horse being even better on a much more fluent running course like Cheltenham. Personally i think the bookies have got this horse totally wrong and he should be even shorter than what he is especially compared to the horses Just behind him in the betting they have run way short of what this horse has done today _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Lethal Weapon (evens favourite) was cut to 20-1 from 25-1 by William Hill for the Triumph Hurdle after winning the paddypowerbingo.com 3-Y-O Hurdle.
His trainer Christy Roche said after the four-and-a-half-length win: "We are going to send him over to the Cheltenham meeting in a couple of weeks for a three-year-old hurdle.
"He's improved since his last run and Alan Crowe said he's a horse that will show more speed on better ground."
Interesting
Thats why i think todays run was so impressive because he basically got his 90+ rating on the flat on gd/Fm ground and you can only see this horse being even better on a much more fluent running course like Cheltenham. Personally i think the bookies have got this horse totally wrong and he should be even shorter than what he is especially compared to the horses Just behind him in the betting they have run way short of what this horse has done today
Watched the replay a few more times - I love his jumping and has ears pricked not doing much from the 2nd last when he hits the front. Also good to see them well strung out with the 2nd fav a clear 2nd. And as you say all this on heavy ground he was unlikely to appreciate.
Lethal Weapon (evens favourite) was cut to 20-1 from 25-1 by William Hill for the Triumph Hurdle after winning the paddypowerbingo.com 3-Y-O Hurdle.
His trainer Christy Roche said after the four-and-a-half-length win: "We are going to send him over to the Cheltenham meeting in a couple of weeks for a three-year-old hurdle.
"He's improved since his last run and Alan Crowe said he's a horse that will show more speed on better ground."
Interesting
Maybe he is underated bacause of his unfashionble trainer. But dont forget he is owned by JP, so come the day he will have AP on his back, which is another positive for me.
Thats why i think todays run was so impressive because he basically got his 90+ rating on the flat on gd/Fm ground and you can only see this horse being even better on a much more fluent running course like Cheltenham. Personally i think the bookies have got this horse totally wrong and he should be even shorter than what he is especially compared to the horses Just behind him in the betting they have run way short of what this horse has done today
Hey Andy, I see you've just put £20 on Indian Groom in the ante post competition about 10 mins after Woolfall Treasure come second in a race at haydock. You think it franks the form or lets it down, as he was beaten fairly easy? Im not sure how good a yardstick he is and if so what Balzaccio who won pretty easily _________________ All aboard the Miliband Wagon
I hadn't noticed that race to be honest! I was thinking about including Indian Groom as my selection this week and did it just now as he has been backed this morning and Corals are the only firm still going 33s now.
I guess if Woolfall Treasure was well beaten it doesn't bode well for the form but this Balzaccio could be decent.
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