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Posted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:29 pm Post subject: The Arkle
I like I'msingingtheblues at this stage. Really liked his jumping first time out and a smart time. 14/1. Looking for Greenbridge to frank his form at Exeter tomorrow.
Don't like Tatenen at all, especially at the price (6/1). I don't see why he is so much shorter than ISTB.
I see they've made him favourite for the Arkle, but I'm not sure Cheltenham would be his forte and there's a suspicion he may be best on a flat track, so i could see him winging roung Aintree or Punchestown in the spring no problem
Paul Nicholls' comments on I'msingingtheblues in his stable tour. While they shoudln't put you off if you like what you see, his views are good to know. Nicholls also said that he's backed Tatenen for the Arkle ante post. I always take trainer comments with a pinch of salt or three though.
I see they've made him favourite for the Arkle, but I'm not sure Cheltenham would be his forte and there's a suspicion he may be best on a flat track, so i could see him winging roung Aintree or Punchestown in the spring no problem
Paul Nicholls' comments on I'msingingtheblues in his stable tour. While they shoudln't put you off if you like what you see, his views are good to know. Nicholls also said that he's backed Tatenen for the Arkle ante post. I always take trainer comments with a pinch of salt or three though.
Cheers Mach - I'll avoid backing him then as it sounds like he could skip Chelts altogether Still don't like Tatenen though - as you say, trainers and jockeys would mostly be terrible punters, even the best ones
Not many like Afsoun - and having watched a re-run of his race today maybe they are right. However a hurdler with his record shouldn't be ignored - if his jumping can be improved then a forceful front running display in the Arkle may have some of the market leaders struggling for legs in the latter stages
Early stages for this race though... _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
Tatenen looked good the other day i thought but would not be taking 6/1 about him i think he isthat price more to do with that nothing alse has really Impressed, Afsoun did not look great, Straw Bear obviously needed run and probably need to see his 2nd run before making Judgment and he never runs 2 races the same anyway, I quite like Tranquil Sea as i cannot see this horse going for the RSAC as surely he would not get the trip and he was in the Supreme(not beaten far) not the Ballymore this year.
Of course Aran Concerto makes his reappearance this week and i think which ever race he takes up the Arkle or RSAC he will win, personally if the Arkle stays as it is with not many real contenders i think he will go for that as i cannot see why they would put him in the RSAC and maybe have a hard staying race. I know some people say he does not have the pace but i have watched all his races many times and he has pace to burn so a quick 2 miles will not be a problem and unless he cannot jump which is very unlikely this horse is already a 160 chaser _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Was there an excuse for his rubbish Chelt run, Yaiyam? That was the first race I saw him in and he couldn't jump and looked distinctly one-paced. Have I missed something? _________________ Known as the catch of the camp.
Agree with Owl that I'msingingtheblues was impressive but looks an Aintree horse, on a line through him (and Snap Tie) I really like CALGARY BAY for the Arkle.
I was in the paddock before the Supreme Novices Hurdles last season with DavidUK and Saint - we all said that he looked the future chaser to take out the race. He dwarfed them all, walked well and basically looked amazing. There is a big trend about a horse winning the Arkle having a certain hurdling rating which I'm not sure he has (like Threeout has mentioned is why Afsoun shouldn't be written off should he run in the race), i'll have to look this up.
Admittedly he still has to go out and show that he's not just a pretty face
YY - I personally agree with Tags and David, Aran Concerto doesn't look a Cheltenham horse to me. Unfortunately, Nicanor aside, he doesn't exactly have the trainer you would want to prep him for a festival race either. Obviously his hurdling form was very impressive in Ireland and he could win some of the top prizes over fences at home should he justify his high profile and fulfill his potential but he doesn't appeal to me around Cheltenham, especially the Arkle. The Irish already have several nice chasers for the RSA which could take some winning this season.
First of all finishing 5th in a Ballymore is not rubbish especially when the horse has hit more hurdles than not, been Interfered with & most Importantly is a big horse that as i have always said is bred to be a chaser. Also he has not run since that Ballymore race because AP said he was still a bit of a baby and he picked up a small injury
Secondly it is not common for horses to be bred for chasing to win grade 1 hurdle races the only ones i can think of off hand that have gone onto produce the goods as a chaser are Moscow Flyer & Denman, not even Best Mate won a grade 1 hurdle race.
As for not having enough speed you only have to look at the exceleration that this horse showed which he really should not even have in his bumper and a few of his hurdle runs that only a very few Jump horses posses this kind of change of gear is very rare for such big horses.
The trainer does for some reason have a poor Cheltenham festival record this year was probably a bit different because all his horses were running poorly Cheltenham or otherwise. People can think what they like about the horse as i know i will be proved right because as said already what he did over hurdles already makes him a 160+ chaser without even having jumped a fence _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Whilst the manner of some of his wins has been visually impressive, I remain to be convinced by Aran Concerto. Aside from Kazal and Catch Me, the horses he has beaten haven't exactly been world-beaters and the fact that each of his wins has had "soft" or "heavy" in the going description leaves me with a few nagging doubts with respect to the Festival. Maybe he will improve for better ground. Maybe he will be better over fences. Maybe he will be better at Cheltenham next time around. Maybe he will be just as good after a year off. He might be the next big thing but far too many maybes for me at this stage.
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Still don't like Tatenen though - as you say, trainers and jockeys would mostly be terrible punters, even the best ones