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Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:44 pm Post subject: Betfair prices the evening before
I know that some are a bit miffed when chaps like me come along and steal early prices on Betfair thus "distorting" the market (at least that is what I think they are moaning at!)
However, I am not always (milking, farm jobs, other stuff) able to back on the day, and particularly not close to the off sometimes. I have noticed over the last couple of weeks (and it may have been going on longer but I have been up till now not using my Betfair account much) that prices on the evening before have very little if anything matched - which means, I suppose, that the prices are generated by Betfair itself. In the past I could usually reckon to get on at a price I was comfortable with the evening before. Now it's not so.
Does anyone have an explanation (but as Betfair markets are "live" as between backers and layers it might simply mean that fewer people are betting on the evening before a meeting)? _________________ UNEXPECTED WINNER 2009 FLAT 10 TO FOLLOW COMPETITION!
Understood - but why then do almost all the horses in a race show at say 1.15 and there's a big fat 0 in the bit that tells you how much has been matched? _________________ UNEXPECTED WINNER 2009 FLAT 10 TO FOLLOW COMPETITION!
Probably 90% of everything traded on Betfair Races (obviously huge meetings/races this isn't the case) are matched in the 10 minutes leading up to the race. No bookies have markets priced up the night before for half decent meetings and because there's a complete lack of liquidity (people putting up prices for horses), you'll be very hard pressed to get a price anything like what you want to take.
The best Way around this in my experience is to put up a price your comfortable with, and depending on whether you want to take it's SP (even if hugely deflated in price) then just click the 'take sp' tab after your bet. Or Keep in running to hopefully be matched at some point round the track. If your convinced, for example, anything lower than 2/1 on a horse is just not value and don't want to take the bet then click the 'cancel in play' tab and you won't have to take even money on a 2/1 shot if you don't want to. Hope that helps. I generally always either cancel my bet if it's not matched or keep in play to be matched, especially if it's a horse who likes to drop in, you'll usually get a bet at a reasonable price on in running, It's very rare for a horse never to go bigger than it's betfair SP in running, especially if it's a hold up merchant. _________________ Come all ye faithful, come all ye thoroughbreeds, come all ye, come to the FLAT season.
Understood - but why then do almost all the horses in a race show at say 1.15 and there's a big fat 0 in the bit that tells you how much has been matched?
Because nothing has been matched on that horse at that time. You'll find a lot of bot like programmes will chalk up the early markets, and strategists putting something like 1.05-1.4 on every horse in big field races to keep in running with the hope that more than one horse will be matched at the price thus resulting in a profit. _________________ Come all ye faithful, come all ye thoroughbreeds, come all ye, come to the FLAT season.
George, thank you. That is an admirably clear explanation! I will proceed as advised.... _________________ UNEXPECTED WINNER 2009 FLAT 10 TO FOLLOW COMPETITION!
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